TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[jasons2k]

Here's a good writeup on the 1985 event, complete with maps & satellite pics:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx/html/attach/jan/snow85.htm

[gboudx]

Indeed!

The 12z GFS run continues to show a wintry precip event for portions of central/north/west Texas at about 204 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _204.shtml

If I'm reading this map right, the event would only be a cold rain for anyone south of a Tyler-Waco-San Angelo line.

18z shows it at 174 and 180h. With much of the deep south from Shreveport to Jackson to Montgomery and Atlanta really getting hammered after that. But, I'll wait and see if this continues next week before I go out and buy that show shovel.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Out beyond 300 hours, for what its worth, 18Z GFS suggests an impressive ice storm for DFW.



Not sure why they run the model past 200 hours, especially when they run it on a very coarse resolution past hour 180...

[pwrdog]

Corpus has gotten more snow than I have over the last 25 years and I live much farther north.. 60 miles north of houston..

I remember a good snow storm down there in the mid eighties and another just a couple of years ago..

In the last 25 years, Corpus Christi has only had measurable snow one time. Dec 24-25, 2004. They received 4.4 inches (the 6 to 14 inch amounts were in a narrow band around Victoria). Prior to that, the last measurable snowfall was in early 1973. There was no snowstorm in Corpus Christi during the 80s at all. Surely you've had 5 inches of snow since 1973.

Here is a write-up on that 2004 storm: Corpus Christi White Christmas

N0, we have had 3.5 inches with about 6-8 ice storms and a sleet storm since 1983.. Now back in 81, 78, 77, 74, 73 we got over an inch each time with 1981 being the most at 7 inches..
I thought CC got snow in 85 because my sister who lived in Beeville just down the road from Corpus got 6 to 8 inches... I guess the freezing rain snowline just missed Corpus...

I was storm hunting/watching during the 2004 storm near Brazoria Texas where they got about 12-14 inches...

The dry air killed the storm and we didn't get but a trace north of houston in 2004...

[Portastorm]

0z GFS at 168 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_168l.gif

Basically shows a winter storm impacting the northern half of Texas! For those of you who have off on MLK Day, how about a 4-day weekend!!

The NCEP ensembles this morning also look cold for Texas for the next two weeks. Safe to say we'll see normal to below normal temps.

The 0z Euro shows a huge, full latitude trough moving across the nation's midsection. This will no doubt drive down some cold air into Texas but how cold and whether its Canadian air or Arctic remains to be seen.

[Portastorm]

{Portastorm now rummaging through his closet looking for his kicking shoes after reading this from pro met Jeff Lindner:}

Next week starts mild and then changes begin as agreed upon by most of the models and their ensemble members…main questions surround ejection of SW US upper trough/closed low and amount of arctic air dump into the US. A forecasting nightmare appears at hand this morning for the end of next week as the cold and moisture combine over the state. After a review of the 00Z guidance runs the following can be determined.

There is general agreement from the GFS, CMC, and ECMWF on the upcoming pattern change. The GFS and ECMWF are aggressive with the cold with 540dm thickness lines and 0C 850mb temp. lines deep into the state by late the 17th and early the 18th. One should not only focus on these two items, but also use partial thickness and most important forecast soundings looking for any warm layers for P-type. All models are showing a cut-off low over the SW US and N Mexico during the middle part of next week with this system ejecting across the state late next week and next weekend. GFS and CMC are the wetter models while the ECMWF is much drier…yet it is the coldest while the CMC is the warmest. CMC suggest cold rains for much of the state while the GFS suggest ice/snow and the ECMWF does not have much precip…maybe some light snow. If cold arctic dome is in place and deep enough with no above freezing layers winter precip will be possible. Other main question mark is available moisture as deep upper trough/closed low would tend to force surface low pressure offshore along a coastal trough…its placement will be critical as to how much moisture is brought northward over the cold dome. Of course even if the cold dome is freezing through a large layer…what will be going on at the surface and near the surface…will the 925mb to surface temps be in the 40’s or 30’s or 20’s. To get a big winter weather event in TX everything has to fall into place perfectly (ie Christmas Eve 2004..12-14” of snow across the coastal bend is still mind blowing) if not it will be dry and cold or wet and warm…the chances of extreme/historical events are rare…yet for those that look at model guidance they are forecasted almost every day at the 180-384 hr range. Close watch is needed on this period to say the least….for now will go with cold and a chance of rain…as snow is very rare in these parts.

[gboudx]

Thanks Portastorm. I was perusing some of the nearby NWS offices, and they are all mentioning this potential for late next week. Even the New Orleans office mentions potential snow north of the lake. At least this is something to keep us busy for a few days.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Portstorm

One of our local mets last night was talking about snow down here and said if we are going to get a trace this winter, it's going to happen in the next couple of weeks.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If we have another freeze, and it doesn't at least ice here, preferably on a school/work day so I can stay home, I'll be bummed.

[wall_cloud]

you could have all the ice you want if it were up to me. I couldn't care less if I never got that garbage again. Ice sucks something serious.

[Portastorm]

Today's 12z GFS run at 168 hrs .... Aye Carumba!!!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah portastorm! That is pretty impressive, especially since we are now within the 7 day range.

It will be interesting to see what future runs have to show.

[jeff]

Not to rain on the snow train...HAHA...but remember for most of this winter models have been very wet only to trend drier as the verification date approached. I am leaning toward a drier solution and colder...but that does not mean totally dry and in TX a little bit of ice/snow can go a long way for problems.

[Ed Mahmoud]

you could have all the ice you want if it were up to me. I couldn't care less if I never got that garbage again. Ice sucks something serious.

I'd feel the same way if I lived in Amarillo. Not sure what I'd do with all that flat, treeless plains (and one canyon), dust, dry skin, brutally hot summers and cold winters.


Of course, if my nic were "Wallcloud", flat, treeless plains where the 'dryline' sets up is probably the place to be.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Today's 12z GFS run at 168 hrs .... Aye Carumba!!!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

174 hour looks even better for SE Texas.

Of course, kind of looks like, even if the model verifies, that the cold air is arriving as the precip is ending, which is never any fun.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Today's 12z GFS run at 168 hrs .... Aye Carumba!!!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

174 hour looks even better for SE Texas.

Of course, kind of looks like, even if the model verifies, that the cold air is arriving as the precip is ending, which is never any fun.

But, if the surface and upper pattern verifies, and the GFS bias of being a tad too warm on the temp of the near surface air, maybe we'd get luckier than it looks.

[Johnny]

Where is AFM? I haven't seen him around all winter long. He usually is all over a setup like this.

[Ed Mahmoud]

WHOOOOOOOOO-HOOOOOOOOOOO


12Z Canadian suggests significant sleet/snow/freezing rain event for Texas next Thursday.


OK, we all know the CMC is on crack in the tropics, but it is designed to predict the weather in the Great White North, no?


Check out the separation between the 540 dm thickness line and the 850 mb freezing line, suggestive of a shallow cold airmass. If Canadian verifies, freezing rain could occur South of the 850 mb freezing line!

Of course, this image is only good for about 23 hours...

[Portastorm]

In the words of the famed sportscaster Keith Jackson: WHOA NELLIE!!!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Shovels might be used to shovel snow instead of BS.