Models showing storm soon in Atlantic?

[Evil Jeremy]

People. It's JANUARY 11.

That is the point. Now that Hurricane season is over, it doesn't look like the tropics want to have a vacation. We had a post season storm and an invest a few weeks ago, and while this system is not much of anything now, it would be six months from now.

[Coredesat]

Actually, the green areas are 12-15 m/s - 25-30 knots.

People. It's JANUARY 11.

That is the point. Now that Hurricane season is over, it doesn't look like the tropics want to have a vacation. We had a post season storm and an invest a few weeks ago, and while this system is not much of anything now, it would be six months from now.

Since Olga, there has been a ridiculous amount of hype for every potentially (sub)tropical-looking low in the Atlantic, despite environmental conditions. Look at this vapor graphic:



If you were to look at any of the satellite loops, you would see that the actual circulation center is embedded in the dry air (it is not where it would appear to be in this image, it is about 1.5-2 degrees to the south).

[Pedro Fernández]

That emoticon is very apt. It's like fishing for something.

Something.... like a needle in a haystack.

People. It's JANUARY 11.

I know that.......... but, you never can be sure nothing could happen in the Nothern Atlantic Ocean since 2005

Sometimes, my wishes are stronger than my logical reasoning

[Coredesat]

That emoticon is very apt. It's like fishing for something.

Something.... like a needle in a haystack.

People. It's JANUARY 11.

I know that.......... but, you never can be sure nothing could happen in the Nothern Atlantic Ocean since 2005

Sometimes, my wishes are stronger than my logical reasoning

So basically, this is a -removed- thread.

[tolakram]

I've been tempted to leave this forum over the utterly ridiculous amounts of hype over what is clearly a non-tropical system.

Lighten up Francis. Seriously, let people have a discussion instead of scolding everyone in just about every thread. You see the thread, you know the contents, stay out if you don't like it. What is so hard about calmly stating your opinion without adding to the drama?

[GCANE]

Vis shows convection firing near the center and to the north. If the UL Low over this weakens it will become more tropical. BTW,this will not be a cane by any stretch; just a very interesting feature to watch and discuss especially in January.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 26&lon=-58

[Chacor]

I've been tempted to leave this forum over the utterly ridiculous amounts of hype over what is clearly a non-tropical system.

Lighten up Francis. Seriously, let people have a discussion instead of scolding everyone in just about every thread. You see the thread, you know the contents, stay out if you don't like it. What is so hard about calmly stating your opinion without adding to the drama?

When people act like idiots and don't - no, scratch that - REFUSE to listen...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I've been tempted to leave this forum over the utterly ridiculous amounts of hype over what is clearly a non-tropical system.

Lighten up Francis. Seriously, let people have a discussion instead of scolding everyone in just about every thread. You see the thread, you know the contents, stay out if you don't like it. What is so hard about calmly stating your opinion without adding to the drama?

When people act like idiots and don't - no, scratch that - REFUSE to listen...

This thread inspired me to start a thread- which happens first- a January through March TC, or real Winter precip at my house?

[Coredesat]

I redacted the first sentence, but the rest still applies. The only time I'll think this system has a chance of becoming something is if the NHC says it does, and they have not.

[Pedro Fernández]

I've been tempted to leave this forum over the utterly ridiculous amounts of hype over what is clearly a non-tropical system.

Lighten up Francis. Seriously, let people have a discussion instead of scolding everyone in just about every thread. You see the thread, you know the contents, stay out if you don't like it. What is so hard about calmly stating your opinion without adding to the drama?

When people act like idiots and don't - no, scratch that - REFUSE to listen...

If you think I act like an idiot, please let me know, and I will go out of this forum... It's very easy.

I would like to contribute ideas and to fun with all you here but, if I am not welcome simply say it and I'll go out.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I've been tempted to leave this forum over the utterly ridiculous amounts of hype over what is clearly a non-tropical system.

Lighten up Francis. Seriously, let people have a discussion instead of scolding everyone in just about every thread. You see the thread, you know the contents, stay out if you don't like it. What is so hard about calmly stating your opinion without adding to the drama?

When people act like idiots and don't - no, scratch that - REFUSE to listen...

If you think I act like an idiot, please let me know, and I will go out of this forum... It's very easy.

I would like to contribute ideas and to fun with all you here but, if I am not welcome simply say it and I'll go out.


I don't think they were talking about you...

[cycloneye]

Ok,lets calm down.No need to have a somewhat tense talk here.Lets continue to comment about the theme of this thread and not have not productive discussions that dont lead to anything.

[GCANE]

If I see correctly, there appears to be some small naked swirls rotating around the mid-level low. They don't appear to last long.

Reminds me of the system that formed in the Bahamas around August and moved into the GOM.

Anyway, the UL Low is pulling up moist air from the south to help feed the surface low.

Low SST will keep this from developing into anything near tropical. I would suspect the UL-Low over this to remain intact.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 26&lon=-58

[HURAKAN]

Latest: Broad & ET

[Pedro Fernández]

I don't think they were talking about you...

In that case, I will be willing to apologize to him.

[Derek Ortt]

this is a very well-defined surface low. Cudos to the global models for accurately predicting this formation.

However, the thermodynamic environment is not really condisive at all for development as a tropical cyclone. The dry air over the vortex will prevent any convection, not allowing for the vortex to transition to a warm-core cyclone

[KWT]

Yeah you can't really miss that circulation and as Derek said the surface low does look well defined. However convection still rather sparse though there is more then befoe on the northern side and shear looks like its eased down as well. I still say its a shame we aren't in deep spring otherwise it'd be very interesting.

[Aric Dunn]

Well with all that has been said already .... except this system has a better shot than our previous invest in that it will have more time to transition than the Invest previously. And as Derek ortt already mentioned presently condition are not particularly conducive for a tropical system but a hybird or sub-trop is not out of the Question over the next day or so also SST's are slightly warmer 23 to 25 degrees verses at one point with the other one it was over 19 degrees. And things have developed this time of year although very rare it has happened. It is however showing some sign of becoming less frontal this afternoon!

[RL3AO]

What effect will the cold front exiting the East Coast have?

[Aric Dunn]

What effect will the cold front exiting the East Coast have?

probably very little the front is washing out and beginning to stall out already, which would allow the ridge to build back in slightly over the 2 days before another front begins to exit the east coast