TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[jinftl]

No winter storm reflected in the NWS Houston forecast yet...


NWS Forecast for: 5 Miles SE Houston TX
Issued by: National Weather Service Houston, TX
Last Update: 10:23 am CST Jan 11, 2008

This Afternoon: Sunny, with a high near 66. East wind around 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 47. Southeast wind around 5 mph.

Saturday: Isolated showers after noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 66. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast. Chance of precipitation is 10%.

Saturday Night: Isolated showers before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 44. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 10%.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 43.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 65.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 65.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48.

Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57.

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48.

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55.

[*]

[gboudx]

Where is AFM? I haven't seen him around all winter long. He usually is all over a setup like this.

It's good to see jeff posting here from time-to-time, but I too miss Nelson's comments and opinions. We need him around to tell us weenies when to calm down.

[southerngale]

[Portastorm]

Where is AFM? I haven't seen him around all winter long. He usually is all over a setup like this.

It's good to see jeff posting here from time-to-time, but I too miss Nelson's comments and opinions. We need him around to tell us weenies when to calm down.

I agree. We haven't seen much of AFM or Wxman57 this winter. Of course there hasn't been much to talk about it, winter-wise. We do get posts from wallcloud and he's an NWS forecaster out of Amarillo. Wish we had more pros online here though.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Though I really hope to see some snow and ice...I also fear that if it does occur, my flight next Friday morning (to Atlanta) may experience problems getting out. I will definitely be watching the timing of this situation closely in the coming days!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Though I really hope to see some snow and ice...I also fear that if it does occur, my flight next Friday morning (to Atlanta) may experience problems getting out. I will definitely be watching the timing of this situation closely in the coming days!

But you wouldn't mind, would you?

With your luck, Houston would have a historic snowfall and you wouldn't be around to see it.

I figured next weekend's weather would go into the tank. We are having our livestock show down here and without fail it seems like it is cold and/or wet during the big part of the show which begins on Thursday.

[gboudx]

With your luck, Houston would have a historic snowfall and you wouldn't be around to see it.

If the models remain consistent(pffft), EWG will be in snow heaven in ATL.

[TxWxFrisco]

Though I really hope to see some snow and ice...I also fear that if it does occur, my flight next Friday morning (to Atlanta) may experience problems getting out. I will definitely be watching the timing of this situation closely in the coming days!

But you wouldn't mind, would you?

With your luck, Houston would have a historic snowfall and you wouldn't be around to see it.

I figured next weekend's weather would go into the tank. We are having our livestock show down here and without fail it seems like it is cold and/or wet during the big part of the show which begins on Thursday.

I'm following your same luck/logic as we have an all day outdoor soccer tournement for my sons soccer team... Weeks upon weeks of temps in the 60's 70's and even an 80 here and there with no outdoor commitments and we finally have one and the bottom looks to fall out...lol

Oh well, the kids will love it if it happens... (so will I but not as much...

[jasons2k]

Though I really hope to see some snow and ice...I also fear that if it does occur, my flight next Friday morning (to Atlanta) may experience problems getting out. I will definitely be watching the timing of this situation closely in the coming days!

Unless you're changing planes at DFW I really don't think you'll have anything to worry about...

[Ed Mahmoud]

For what its worth, the Japanese JMA model I can see through being a pay-per-view AccuWx member, is similar to the Canadian model, with cold air over Texas, a developing low in the Gulf, and the 850 mb freezing line about 100 miles inland from the coast in SE Texas.

[gboudx]

For what its worth, the Japanese JMA model I can see through being a pay-per-view AccuWx member, is similar to the Canadian model, with cold air over Texas, a developing low in the Gulf, and the 850 mb freezing line about 100 miles inland from the coast in SE Texas.

But do you put in any faith in it this many days out?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I hope people can see why -removed- winter weather on themselves so beats wishing a hurricane to pass over the house. No worrying about boarding up, no runs on gasoline, no running out of bottled water at Kroger and Wal-Mart.


While the idea of a tropical cyclone is exciting, it could cause thousands of dollars in damage to your house, people you know might get hurt, power could be out for weeks, (power can go out in an ice storm as well, but food will stay fresh in the backyard if its cold, and while you can always pile on more clothes, wants down to boxer shorts and t-shirt in a 95ºF house w/o air conditioning, nothing more can be done).


If it happens, it'll be all pretty to look at, and if they cancel school and I can't make it to work, if my wife lets me, the kids and I will have a winter party in the yard!

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't know much about the Japanese model, but it seems very similar in solution to the Canadian, and while the GFS is a little slower, it also is suggesting some kind of winter precip in Texas, if not in SE Texas, fairly close to the coast.

And, we are less than 180 hours, when the GFS grid spacing jumps from about 35 km to about 80 km.


I mean, I'll try to avoid EWG type hysteria, at least until we're in range of the WRF model. Of course, by then, everyone will be on it, and its kinda fun being the first one to spot something from a week away...

[southerngale]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the DS model says not to get your hopes up.... the models are often wrong this far out, and end up letting us down.

[Brent]

Though I really hope to see some snow and ice...I also fear that if it does occur, my flight next Friday morning (to Atlanta) may experience problems getting out. I will definitely be watching the timing of this situation closely in the coming days!

You might have fun in Atlanta.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the DS model says not to get your hopes up.... the models are often wrong this far out, and end up letting us down.

DS model?

[Ed Mahmoud]

NWS HGX will not issue a Bear Watch at this time. Relevant snip of AFD

MODELS HAVE BEEN SOME
WHAT CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND THE
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROF AROUND MID WEEK. THESE LATEST RUNS DO
KEEP WITH THESE ELEMENTS BUT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. AT FIRST BLUSH THIS DOES
NOT SEEM TOO FAR FETCHED. THE DEEPENING UPPER TROF OUT WEST TO
PRODUCE AN INCREASINGLY SWLY FLOW ALOFT- TAPPING INTO MOISTURE
FROM THE PACIFIC. CLOSER TO HOME...THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF
A COASTAL LOW OVER THE LOWER TX COAST TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT/
INCREASE LOW-LEVEL WINDS/MOISTURE OVER SE TX AHEAD OF THESE A-
FOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS. AND SO WILL BROADBRUSH CHC POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING
THAT SOME FINE TUNING WILL BE NECESSARY/OCCURRING AS THINGS E-
VOLVE. HOWEVER... EXTENDED GUIDANCE FOR THE VERY LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK HAVE PIQUED INTERESTS (DESPITE BEING SO FAR OUT INTO
THE FUTURE). VERY COLD TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE SFC (VIA THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS) COMBINED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING MOISTURE
HAS JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE ONE GO HMMM...BUT NO BEAR WATCH IN THE
OFFING ATTM. 41

[Extremeweatherguy]

18z GFS continues to show snow/ice reaching Houston by next Friday morning and then clearing by Friday afternoon.

6am on 1/18/08 = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_162l.gif

12pm on 1/18/08 = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_168l.gif

6pm on 1/18/08 = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_174l.gif

My flight is supposed to leave at ~11am on Friday morning, so it will definitely be a close call. Both Houston and Atlanta look to be impacted by this system, with Houston getting the brunt in the morning and Atlanta getting the brunt in the afternoon and evening. One thing that really should have everyone's attention though is that this is shown to occur in the under 180 hour timeframe. That is much closer than the 250+ hour fantasy runs we see typically.

[southerngale]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the DS model says not to get your hopes up.... the models are often wrong this far out, and end up letting us down.

DS model?

Dream Squasher

[Ed Mahmoud]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the DS model says not to get your hopes up.... the models are often wrong this far out, and end up letting us down.

DS model?

Dream Squasher

The Yurpian?