Wishcast- which h'pens 1st- snow in SETX, or TC in Atl

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just looking at the thread about the low cloud swirl embedded in the dry air under 20 to 30 knots of shear, and the emotion it causes, and, well, this time of year, if I want excitement, I hope for snow, or at least freezing rain, preferably on a weekday so I can stay home and play with the kids on the lawn.


So, and the answer may not be known for years- of the wishcast scenarios, which happens first, real (not flurries, or trace of sleet or freezing drizzle) winter weather in Houston, or an Atlantic tropical cyclone in the months of January through March.


This exchange below is what got me thinking about this.

That emoticon is very apt. It's like fishing for something.

Something.... like a needle in a haystack.

People. It's JANUARY 11.

I know that.......... but, you never can be sure nothing could happen in the Nothern Atlantic Ocean since 2005

Sometimes, my wishes are stronger than my logical reasoning

So basically, this is a -removed- thread.

Current TC thread


Texas winter weather thread

[Ed Mahmoud]

I thought this thread would be interesting...

[MiamiensisWx]

Everyone thinks it's more annoying in the tropical threads; thus it is more fun...

Remember that severe wx and winter systems (plus all non-tropical subjects) supposedly don't affect anyone, so they receive no attention on this board.

The number of "-removed-" posts in tropical threads is proportionate to this board's primary weather interests. Sadly, the tropics supercede all other subjects, although winter storms, severe wx, droughts, etc. all affect people. Even the board's primary Southern base is affected by severe wx, but the recent event received little attention.

The tropical threads will continue to attract nonsense until people realize other meteorological events affect humans, too.

[Coredesat]

Remember that severe wx and winter systems (plus all non-tropical subjects) supposedly don't affect anyone, so they receive no attention on this board.

...

The tropical threads will continue to attract nonsense until people realize other meteorological events affect humans, too.

This is something I've been waiting for someone to say for the longest time. I didn't want to be the one to do it, because if I did, I'd do it in a very angry tone, and no one would listen.

Granted, I'm not expecting anyone to listen even if it's presented in a civil tone; there is a serious and somewhat perplexing obsession with the tropics here. Some people do not understand that there is indeed other weather, and other people do get affected; they simply don't care, which is why participation here drops off sharply during the winter and spring - that is, unless there is out-of-season development (when all common sense seems to be lost). During the summer, participation in all other forums falls off sharply, and I would imagine 80% of the users who post during the Atlantic hurricane season are unaware of what goes on elsewhere.

If there were a Category 4 fish storm in the Atlantic at the same time as a major severe weather outbreak affecting ten U.S. states and causing major damage, the Category 4 fish would get more attention - namely from people proposing strange theories on how the fish could somehow affect the U.S. despite the models and forecasts saying it won't (substitute in a Zeta-like storm and a paralyzing blizzard during the offseason). The only times people are interested in anything other than Atlantic tropical cyclones are when those events have killed a very large number of people or caused an incredible amount of damage, and even then there is far more interest in the Atlantic storms. Whenever the focus is on the Atlantic, -removed- rules the day despite rules strongly discouraging it.

Typhoon Durian was the deadliest tropical cyclone anywhere in the world in 2006, but it received virtually no attention. Cyclone Sidr was one of the deadliest tropical cyclones in recent years (the deadliest since Hurricane Mitch, in fact), and it received little attention for quite some time. The thread on the Greensburg tornado has 328 posts, but almost all of them are from four or five users.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Remember that severe wx and winter systems (plus all non-tropical subjects) supposedly don't affect anyone, so they receive no attention on this board.

...

The tropical threads will continue to attract nonsense until people realize other meteorological events affect humans, too.

This is something I've been waiting for someone to say for the longest time. I didn't want to be the one to do it, because if I did, I'd do it in a very angry tone, and no one would listen.

Granted, I'm not expecting anyone to listen even if it's presented in a civil tone; there is a serious and somewhat perplexing obsession with the tropics here. Some people do not understand that there is indeed other weather, and other people do get affected; they simply don't care, which is why participation here drops off sharply during the winter and spring - that is, unless there is out-of-season development (when all common sense seems to be lost). During the summer, participation in all other forums falls off sharply, and I would imagine 80% of the users who post during the Atlantic hurricane season are unaware of what goes on elsewhere.

If there were a Category 4 fish storm in the Atlantic at the same time as a major severe weather outbreak affecting ten U.S. states and causing major damage, the Category 4 fish would get more attention - namely from people proposing strange theories on how the fish could somehow affect the U.S. despite the models and forecasts saying it won't (substitute in a Zeta-like storm and a paralyzing blizzard during the offseason). The only times people are interested in anything other than Atlantic tropical cyclones are when those events have killed a very large number of people or caused an incredible amount of damage, and even then there is far more interest in the Atlantic storms. Whenever the focus is on the Atlantic, -removed- rules the day despite rules strongly discouraging it.

Typhoon Durian was the deadliest tropical cyclone anywhere in the world in 2006, but it received virtually no attention. Cyclone Sidr was one of the deadliest tropical cyclones in recent years (the deadliest since Hurricane Mitch, in fact), and it received little attention for quite some time. The thread on the Greensburg tornado has 328 posts, but almost all of them are from four or five users.

I wasn't a member yet during the Greensburg tornado. Me, personally, hurricane season is only half the year, and despite the odd storm in November, basically ends in late October, and on average, June and July combine for a single cyclone. Blob watching out of season is interesting, but it is winter storm season now, and while winter storms are the normal up North, they are almost as rare as tropical cyclones (in Florida, much more rare). So it is fun to watch the long range models, even if the trend this year is something big promised beyond 200 hours that dwindles as the event approaches.


When there isn't any winter weather here, well, I used to live in the suburbs of NYC, and when winter is just on vacation, there are the sports threads.

[jasons2k]

There is a bias towards tropical weather. That's just human nature; we gravitate towards the extreme.

It is more pronounced here on S2K because of our history. We started-out as an offshoot from another tropical board years ago and the original members were from there. The handful of original pro mets (such as Derek) were tropical specialists. That was our focus -- this is why the member rankings are based on tropical classfications instead of the Fujita scale; it's the heritage of S2k.

Over the years, we have tried to broaden the focus of S2K to include all weather in general and participation has gotten much better in the "off season". If you think it's quiet now you should shave seen it back in the first year or two...it was completely dead from November to June. It's getting better though...and we encourage people to make us their home all year 'round.

[MiamiensisWx]

There is a bias towards tropical weather. That's just human nature; we gravitate towards the extreme.

Well, I think many other meteorological events such as winter blizzards and severe weather would also qualify as "extreme" events on a regular basis.

It is more pronounced here on S2K because of our history. We started-out as an offshoot from another tropical board years ago and the original members were from there. The handful of original pro mets (such as Derek) were tropical specialists. That was our focus -- this is why the member rankings are based on tropical classfications instead of the Fujita scale; it's the heritage of S2k.

That's true, but the majority of the members are situated in the South, which is also regularly affected by severe wx and other non-TC events, but the recent severe outbreak across the Gulf coast received little attention from those members.

Over the years, we have tried to broaden the focus of S2K to include all weather in general and participation has gotten much better in the "off season". If you think it's quiet now you should shave seen it back in the first year or two...it was completely dead from November to June. It's getting better though...and we encourage people to make us their home all year 'round.

I really hope that is the case.