The PSU E-Wall has a link for the DGEX from the Mississippi River and points East, basically. Anyone know any free sites that show DGEX output?
The DGEX I see on the AccuWeather site shows snow West of I-35 and North of Waco, basically, early Thursday, but basically shows no snow at all East of I-35 anywhere in Texas. For what that is worth. Only a very narrow band of mixed/ice between the snow and the rain...
TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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jasons2k
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Re: TX winter weather thread: Winter WX next Thurs/Fri?
Hey Ed,
I'll give my $.02 on your question earlier...
I grew up in Tampa. I saw the cold outbreak in '83 but I was too young to understand/appreciate what it did to the citrus industry except to notice all the dead orange trees in Pasco County.
Next, I moved to Savannah, GA and went bananas, "EWG style" when we hit the all-time low of 3F. It was the neatest thing for me to see icicles from people's sprinkler system in the yards. I was in heaven.
Then we moved to Plano, near Dallas, in 1988. I was there for the cold/ice outbreaks of 1989. Loved it b/c I got to miss school for several days due to the gas curtailment. It got so cold they had to cut the gas from schools and businesses. I got to slide down the driveway for the first time and I just loved the ice, sleet, and snow. There were several close calls in Dallas and I kept vigil every time there was a threat of winter weather. I made sure to watch Harold Taft at 5:00, 6:00 and 10:00 and I tried to see Troy Dungan and Mike Burger as well to see if anyone ever had a hint of snow or ice in the forecast. My Dad thought I was crazy because if the weather channel ever had us in the white or pink, I'd jump up & down in the living room. Yes, I was the uber weather geek in middle/high school.
I lived in Birmingham, AL for one year, and it hapened to be 1992-1993. Bullseye for the March, 1993 Storm of the Century. I was so excited when it started snowing, I could NOT WAIT to see that foot of snow. I stayed-up until the wee hours of the night, savoring every flake that fell, every rumble of thunder, and every flash of lightning (that's an eerie sight by the way). I was in weather geek heaven. Before long, things quickly went south. Branches started creaking and ultimately breaking. The next morning, we had several trees that were split in half. The cable went out. Next was the power and finally the phones. There were trees down everywhere and there was no way to leave our neighborhood. There was no power, TV, or phone. Everything - and I mean everything - was closed. For the first time ever, I was genuinely scared as I didn't know if my father, a few miles away, was OK. He lived in a travel trailer because it was a short-term move. As you know, those things have little insulation and no fireplace. He had no plans to "stock-up" and shrugged off the storm before it hit as "no big deal". I knew if we didn't have power in the city, he surely didn't out in the country. I'll never forget how happy I was on day 3, someone with a 4-wheel drive rescued him from his trailer and brought him to my grandparent's house. He was cold, tired, and starving. I'd never seen my Dad like that before.
We were completely stranded at the house for 3 days with all the downed trees. We lost power for 5 days and it was COLD. We slept downstairs in sleeping bags in front of the fire but by the 2nd night it was NOT fun. (BTW - no hot water either to take a shower). We didn't have cable for over a week and it took 2 weeks to get the phone back. Hundreds of people (maybe thousands?) had to be rescued from the freeways & roads by the National Guard. The Comedy Club (among many other places) burned to the ground and Carrot Top lost all his props in the fire. This was my first taste of the not-so-fun chaos that can be caused by winter weather. The trees in much of the South (and here in SE Texas) cannot handle that amount of snow. Aside from roofs being blown off, it pretty much looked-like a hurricane came through after the storm.
I moved back to Texas and went to Tech in Lubbock. I loved the more frequent snows we got out there, and in Lubbock it's no big deal. We'd get 6" of snow and still have class. But it was fun. I moved back to the DFW area after school and would still pray for snow/sleet/ice. I subscribed to AccuWx's pro site and would read JB diligently every day. I got so excited every time he talked about cross-polar flow, "Cahir's connection", the negative NAO, and all the other nuggets he throws into his columns. But after about 3 years I realized that 95% of the time, I got my hopes up for nothing. Out of the dozen+ times a year the big "S" word was mentioned, we'd see it maybe once if we were lucky. But I still hoped for it, every winter.
Then in 2005 I had a change of heart. I visited Florida almost every year but something clicked on my visit that year. I realized I really missed a warmer climate and wanted a yard where I could plant some palm trees (besides the 2 or 3 varieties you are stuck with in Dallas). I was just tired of cold weather, like so many people that move to the sunbelt from up north. So, I looked in Florida, Phoenix, and Houston but got an offer here I couldn't refuse. We found a house with a pool & tiki bar in the back and an enormous amount of tropical vegetation in the yard. The "crown jewel" of the yard is 4 beautiful Majesty Palms. The day I saw it I fell in love with it; it's truly tropical looking. I've totaled it up and the landscaping alone is worth well over $10,000.
The problem is that several of my plants only are hardy down to about 26-28F. I knew going into the deal that it would be very risky growing some of these plants here in Houston, but I have invested in protective measures (wraps & freeze spray, etc.). These will buy me several degrees of hardiness but in a 1983-like scenario, or God forbid another 1899 scenario, they are toast.
Don't get me wrong, I love the snow. A benign 2004-like event would be ideal where it doesn't get too cold and it wouldn't hurt the plants. But overall I could really do without the cold weather (I loved the 80-degree weather last weekend). I don't like it when it goes into the 20's b/c I have to start getting the gear out - and it's a bit of a hassle. What goes up must come down too.
I really would hate for Houston to have a severe freeze down into the teens as there are so many plants here now that would be toast. For instance, the Queen Palm has about the same hardiness as Citrus (mid 20's) and they have planted them everywhere here. A severe freeze into the teens would wipe them out. And it's not just those, there are all kinds of semi-tropical plants that now call Houston home. Call me crazy, but I wouldn't wishcast that just to see some lower numbers on the thermometer and watch a bunch of beautiful plants turn to mush. I just don't understand the joy one would find in that. But that's just me...
I also hope we don't see a snowfall like the 1895 snow, similar to what we saw in Birmingham. That'd be a disaster, especially up here in Montogomery County with all the pine trees. I've been there, done that, and don't care to live through that experience again. I don't think most people would either.
I'll give my $.02 on your question earlier...
I grew up in Tampa. I saw the cold outbreak in '83 but I was too young to understand/appreciate what it did to the citrus industry except to notice all the dead orange trees in Pasco County.
Next, I moved to Savannah, GA and went bananas, "EWG style" when we hit the all-time low of 3F. It was the neatest thing for me to see icicles from people's sprinkler system in the yards. I was in heaven.
Then we moved to Plano, near Dallas, in 1988. I was there for the cold/ice outbreaks of 1989. Loved it b/c I got to miss school for several days due to the gas curtailment. It got so cold they had to cut the gas from schools and businesses. I got to slide down the driveway for the first time and I just loved the ice, sleet, and snow. There were several close calls in Dallas and I kept vigil every time there was a threat of winter weather. I made sure to watch Harold Taft at 5:00, 6:00 and 10:00 and I tried to see Troy Dungan and Mike Burger as well to see if anyone ever had a hint of snow or ice in the forecast. My Dad thought I was crazy because if the weather channel ever had us in the white or pink, I'd jump up & down in the living room. Yes, I was the uber weather geek in middle/high school.
I lived in Birmingham, AL for one year, and it hapened to be 1992-1993. Bullseye for the March, 1993 Storm of the Century. I was so excited when it started snowing, I could NOT WAIT to see that foot of snow. I stayed-up until the wee hours of the night, savoring every flake that fell, every rumble of thunder, and every flash of lightning (that's an eerie sight by the way). I was in weather geek heaven. Before long, things quickly went south. Branches started creaking and ultimately breaking. The next morning, we had several trees that were split in half. The cable went out. Next was the power and finally the phones. There were trees down everywhere and there was no way to leave our neighborhood. There was no power, TV, or phone. Everything - and I mean everything - was closed. For the first time ever, I was genuinely scared as I didn't know if my father, a few miles away, was OK. He lived in a travel trailer because it was a short-term move. As you know, those things have little insulation and no fireplace. He had no plans to "stock-up" and shrugged off the storm before it hit as "no big deal". I knew if we didn't have power in the city, he surely didn't out in the country. I'll never forget how happy I was on day 3, someone with a 4-wheel drive rescued him from his trailer and brought him to my grandparent's house. He was cold, tired, and starving. I'd never seen my Dad like that before.
We were completely stranded at the house for 3 days with all the downed trees. We lost power for 5 days and it was COLD. We slept downstairs in sleeping bags in front of the fire but by the 2nd night it was NOT fun. (BTW - no hot water either to take a shower). We didn't have cable for over a week and it took 2 weeks to get the phone back. Hundreds of people (maybe thousands?) had to be rescued from the freeways & roads by the National Guard. The Comedy Club (among many other places) burned to the ground and Carrot Top lost all his props in the fire. This was my first taste of the not-so-fun chaos that can be caused by winter weather. The trees in much of the South (and here in SE Texas) cannot handle that amount of snow. Aside from roofs being blown off, it pretty much looked-like a hurricane came through after the storm.
I moved back to Texas and went to Tech in Lubbock. I loved the more frequent snows we got out there, and in Lubbock it's no big deal. We'd get 6" of snow and still have class. But it was fun. I moved back to the DFW area after school and would still pray for snow/sleet/ice. I subscribed to AccuWx's pro site and would read JB diligently every day. I got so excited every time he talked about cross-polar flow, "Cahir's connection", the negative NAO, and all the other nuggets he throws into his columns. But after about 3 years I realized that 95% of the time, I got my hopes up for nothing. Out of the dozen+ times a year the big "S" word was mentioned, we'd see it maybe once if we were lucky. But I still hoped for it, every winter.
Then in 2005 I had a change of heart. I visited Florida almost every year but something clicked on my visit that year. I realized I really missed a warmer climate and wanted a yard where I could plant some palm trees (besides the 2 or 3 varieties you are stuck with in Dallas). I was just tired of cold weather, like so many people that move to the sunbelt from up north. So, I looked in Florida, Phoenix, and Houston but got an offer here I couldn't refuse. We found a house with a pool & tiki bar in the back and an enormous amount of tropical vegetation in the yard. The "crown jewel" of the yard is 4 beautiful Majesty Palms. The day I saw it I fell in love with it; it's truly tropical looking. I've totaled it up and the landscaping alone is worth well over $10,000.
The problem is that several of my plants only are hardy down to about 26-28F. I knew going into the deal that it would be very risky growing some of these plants here in Houston, but I have invested in protective measures (wraps & freeze spray, etc.). These will buy me several degrees of hardiness but in a 1983-like scenario, or God forbid another 1899 scenario, they are toast.
Don't get me wrong, I love the snow. A benign 2004-like event would be ideal where it doesn't get too cold and it wouldn't hurt the plants. But overall I could really do without the cold weather (I loved the 80-degree weather last weekend). I don't like it when it goes into the 20's b/c I have to start getting the gear out - and it's a bit of a hassle. What goes up must come down too.
I really would hate for Houston to have a severe freeze down into the teens as there are so many plants here now that would be toast. For instance, the Queen Palm has about the same hardiness as Citrus (mid 20's) and they have planted them everywhere here. A severe freeze into the teens would wipe them out. And it's not just those, there are all kinds of semi-tropical plants that now call Houston home. Call me crazy, but I wouldn't wishcast that just to see some lower numbers on the thermometer and watch a bunch of beautiful plants turn to mush. I just don't understand the joy one would find in that. But that's just me...
I also hope we don't see a snowfall like the 1895 snow, similar to what we saw in Birmingham. That'd be a disaster, especially up here in Montogomery County with all the pine trees. I've been there, done that, and don't care to live through that experience again. I don't think most people would either.
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: TX winter weather thread: Winter WX next Thurs/Fri?
I don't want a severe freeze either. Where I live in unincorporated Harris County/Spring ISD taxes, while I have lost an avocado and a couple of lemon trees (well, little trees) to the cold, I have found through the last three years of freezes in the mid to upper 20s (I think I'm colder than IAH, even though I am probably less than 5 miles West) because I'll have windshield frost when it is 40ºF. I know frost can happen at temps above freezing, but to have to scrape a windshield when the airport is 40º tells me I live in a cold subdivision.
Anyway, my satsuma orange tree, my Mexican Fan palms, my 2 cycads (called Sago palms, but not true palms) and my pygmy date palm all seem to handle the cold fine. The pygmy date palm will suffer a little foliage damage, but everything else rocks and rolls.
We got evacuated from our house in Nassau County, NY for Hurricane Belle (uprooted lots of weeping willow trees, some of which (in places where they weren't cleared) didn't die even uprooted), which did no significant damage, and I missed 5 straight days of school in the February 1978 blizzard.
I saw snow flurries in Austin in 1989, and drove to DFW area where family lives for Christmas, that was cold. Also saw about 2 inches of snow come down hard and fast in December, 1996 in Austin, stick even to the roads, and it was all gone in about 2 hours.
I believe it was February 1999 when a 99ºF day and freezing rain happened only a week apart in Austin.
And, of course, I remember, even though it was just a dusting here, the 2004 Christmas Eve miracle snow.
Nah, I don't want it too cold, and IMHO, cold air without snow or ice just means static shocks, dry skin and heating bills.
Anyway, my satsuma orange tree, my Mexican Fan palms, my 2 cycads (called Sago palms, but not true palms) and my pygmy date palm all seem to handle the cold fine. The pygmy date palm will suffer a little foliage damage, but everything else rocks and rolls.
We got evacuated from our house in Nassau County, NY for Hurricane Belle (uprooted lots of weeping willow trees, some of which (in places where they weren't cleared) didn't die even uprooted), which did no significant damage, and I missed 5 straight days of school in the February 1978 blizzard.
I saw snow flurries in Austin in 1989, and drove to DFW area where family lives for Christmas, that was cold. Also saw about 2 inches of snow come down hard and fast in December, 1996 in Austin, stick even to the roads, and it was all gone in about 2 hours.
I believe it was February 1999 when a 99ºF day and freezing rain happened only a week apart in Austin.
And, of course, I remember, even though it was just a dusting here, the 2004 Christmas Eve miracle snow.
Nah, I don't want it too cold, and IMHO, cold air without snow or ice just means static shocks, dry skin and heating bills.
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: TX winter weather thread: Winter WX next Thurs/Fri?
Can you imagine how beautiful the old Spanish missions in San Antonio would look with several inches of fresh powder?
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wall_cloud
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Re: TX winter weather thread: Winter WX next Thurs/Fri?
Ed Mahmoud wrote:The PSU E-Wall has a link for the DGEX from the Mississippi River and points East, basically. Anyone know any free sites that show DGEX output?
DGEX Output
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Extremeweatherguy
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Re: TX winter weather thread: Winter WX next Thurs/Fri?
GFS P-type map for next Friday morning:
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Fri Jan 11, 2008 10:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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wall_cloud
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Re:
gboudx wrote:What's the difference between the DGEX only and the DGEX, GFS; other than one showing snow in TX and one not?
the DGEX,GFS is simply a side by side comparison of the DGEX and GFS. Just makes it easy to compare the two.
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gboudx
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Re: Re:
wall_cloud wrote:gboudx wrote:What's the difference between the DGEX only and the DGEX, GFS; other than one showing snow in TX and one not?
the DGEX,GFS is simply a side by side comparison of the DGEX and GFS. Just makes it easy to compare the two.
At the 162h, for example, there is really no comparison on the precip types between the two. I guess my question is why is there so much disparity between the 2 on precip types?
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wall_cloud
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Re: Re:
gboudx wrote:wall_cloud wrote:gboudx wrote:What's the difference between the DGEX only and the DGEX, GFS; other than one showing snow in TX and one not?
the DGEX,GFS is simply a side by side comparison of the DGEX and GFS. Just makes it easy to compare the two.
At the 162h, for example, there is really no comparison on the precip types between the two. I guess my question is why is there so much disparity between the 2 on precip types?
because they are different models. While the patterns are actually quite similar, the GFS has far more moisture between h85-h5 than the DGEX. It can't produce the precip without the moisture.
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gboudx
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Re: Re:
wall_cloud wrote:because they are different models. While the patterns are actually quite similar, the GFS has far more moisture between h85-h5 than the DGEX. It can't produce the precip without the moisture.
Thanks. I'm looking for a reason to not believe in wintry precip next week, because the rug has been pulled from under my feet too many times.
I'm an engineer in telecom, but an amateur in regards to meteorology. If I had to analyze results that produced such different results as the DGEX and GFS right now, I'd throw them out and wait for the next set of data.
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wall_cloud
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Re: Re:
gboudx wrote:I'm an engineer in telecom, but an amateur in regards to meteorology. If I had to analyze results that produced such different results as the DGEX and GFS right now, I'd throw them out and wait for the next set of data.
welcome to forecasting
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: TX winter weather thread: Seasonal/cool temperatures ahead
Ed Mahmoud wrote:WHOOOOOOOOO-HOOOOOOOOOOO
12Z Canadian suggests significant sleet/snow/freezing rain event for Texas next Thursday.
OK, we all know the CMC is on crack in the tropics, but it is designed to predict the weather in the Great White North, no?
Check out the separation between the 540 dm thickness line and the 850 mb freezing line, suggestive of a shallow cold airmass. If Canadian verifies, freezing rain could occur South of the 850 mb freezing line!
Of course, this image is only good for about 23 hours...
The 12Z Canadian giveth, the 0Z Canadian taketh away...
Well, NW Texas gets some winter weather...
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: TX winter weather thread: Winter WX next Thurs/Fri?
The EC site doesn't seem to show the 850 mb freezing line, and the 540 dm thickness line isn't that much further North, so maybe there is still an ice storm in DFW.
The PSU e-Wall also has the 850mb 0ºC line, so I'm waiting for that to update. But the CMC doesn't seem to promise winter weather for SE Texas.
The PSU e-Wall also has the 850mb 0ºC line, so I'm waiting for that to update. But the CMC doesn't seem to promise winter weather for SE Texas.
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: TX winter weather thread: Winter WX next Thurs/Fri?
Ed Mahmoud wrote:The EC site doesn't seem to show the 850 mb freezing line, and the 540 dm thickness line isn't that much further North, so maybe there is still an ice storm in DFW.
The PSU e-Wall also has the 850mb 0ºC line, so I'm waiting for that to update. But the CMC doesn't seem to promise winter weather for SE Texas.
PSU hasn't updated, but AccuWx PPV page has, CMC's 850 mb freezing line is considerably further North than the 12Z.
I think the slow model retreat from a winter weather event where they are unusual in Texas has begun. And glancing at ATL, looks like the new GFS shows the cold air arriving too late for significant winter wx.
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Portastorm
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Re: TX winter weather thread: Winter WX next Thurs/Fri?
Good Saturday morning kids!
As Ed Mahmoud alludes to in some of his posts prior to mine here, the modeling trend over the last 12 hours is warmer and wetter for areas of south central and southeast Texas. Here is an example. Take a look at yesterday's 12z GFS at 168 hrs (essentially 6 am Friday morning on Jan. 18):
Now, take a look at today's 0z GFS at 156 hrs (again, 6 am Friday):
You'll see that areas from DFW to San Angelo and west look good for snow/ice, but anything south and east of that line looks more like rain. Also, the surface low forming in the Gulf in much closer to the coast which means it would rob moisture from areas beyond the coast most likely.
The 0z CMC and Euro also don't show too much to get excited about. The Euro remains a drier scenario and as Ed shows, the CMC is warmer in Texas now than 12 hours ago. The only model I could see this morning that still showed a winter storm in central and maybe portions of south Texas is the Japanese model (which I have to view via my subscription to the Accuweather pro site). I have no clue how reliable this model is to be honest.
Will be fun to see if the 12z runs today continue this warmer trend or reverse it!
As Ed Mahmoud alludes to in some of his posts prior to mine here, the modeling trend over the last 12 hours is warmer and wetter for areas of south central and southeast Texas. Here is an example. Take a look at yesterday's 12z GFS at 168 hrs (essentially 6 am Friday morning on Jan. 18):
Now, take a look at today's 0z GFS at 156 hrs (again, 6 am Friday):
You'll see that areas from DFW to San Angelo and west look good for snow/ice, but anything south and east of that line looks more like rain. Also, the surface low forming in the Gulf in much closer to the coast which means it would rob moisture from areas beyond the coast most likely.
The 0z CMC and Euro also don't show too much to get excited about. The Euro remains a drier scenario and as Ed shows, the CMC is warmer in Texas now than 12 hours ago. The only model I could see this morning that still showed a winter storm in central and maybe portions of south Texas is the Japanese model (which I have to view via my subscription to the Accuweather pro site). I have no clue how reliable this model is to be honest.
Will be fun to see if the 12z runs today continue this warmer trend or reverse it!
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jasons2k
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Re: TX winter weather thread: Winter WX next Thurs/Fri?
The Japanese model was the first one to see the NYC blizzard in 2006, but other than that I don't know how well it does.
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Re: TX winter weather thread: Winter WX next Thurs/Fri?
Maybe the Jan 23rd-25th will be an even better set up for some snow across se texas..
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