TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

Ed Mahmoud · #781 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 4:53 pm

Looking to the West and Northwest, a near solid deck of clouds moving in, but they are not impressive looking, almost like strato-cu with no obvious vertical development.

Ed Mahmoud · #782 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 5:08 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Looking to the West and Northwest, a near solid deck of clouds moving in, but they are not impressive looking, almost like strato-cu with no obvious vertical development.

Oh please, backbuild baby, backbuild...

#783 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 5:09 pm

wall_cloud wrote:the Texans' infatuation with snow cracks me up. You guys need to stop -removed- and take the models for what they are. Nothing more than a first guess.

Don't mean to burst yer bubble, wallcloud, but as for me ... I'm one of these naturalized Texans. I actually grew up in a part of the country (northeastern Ohio) that averaged 60-70 inches of snow a winter. I get a kick out of seeing snow for one day and then I'm quickly reminded why I left that part of the country to begin with!

Extremeweatherguy · #784 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 5:19 pm

Ed Mahmoud · #785 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 5:26 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:18z GFS continues to show an interesting setup for Thursday...

12am Thurs.
surface - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif
850mb - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_108l.gif
500mb - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_108l.gif
thickness - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_108l.gif

6am Thurs.
surface - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif
850mb - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_114l.gif
500mb - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114l.gif
thickness - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_114l.gif

12pm Thurs.
surface - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif
850mb - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_120l.gif
500mb - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120l.gif
thickness - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_120l.gif

Step in the right direction, might still be good for flurries or maybe a little sleet, but nothing that would stick near SETX. I find this 4 panel loop from PSU a more useful way to evaluate winter precip...

Would still be a disappointment overall, but maybe the GFS is starting to trend toward a solution with better co-location of precip and cold. We can only hope.

Extremeweatherguy · #786 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 5:45 pm

What would be really interesting is if the 18z GFS's prediction of the week of the 21st was correct. It shows many days struggling to get out of the 20s and 30s across TX with plenty of snow and ice threats. It would certainly feel like winter were that to play out. Still 180+ hours though, so no need to worry about it yet.

Ed Mahmoud · #787 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 5:56 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:What would be really interesting is if the 18z GFS's prediction of the week of the 21st was correct. It shows many days struggling to get out of the 20s and 30s across TX with plenty of snow and ice threats. It would certainly feel like winter were that to play out. Still 180+ hours though, so no need to worry about it yet.

Don't drink the 180+ Kool-Aid that inevitably leads to bitter dissapointment...

Ptarmigan · #788 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 6:06 pm

Should be an interesting next week.

Ptarmigan · #789 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 6:09 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:

Don't drink the 180+ Kool-Aid that inevitably leads to bitter dissapointment...

Predicting snowfall is not easy in SE TX. Sometimes, it is forecasted and nothing happens. Other times, it is not forecasted and snow does fall.

Ed Mahmoud · #790 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:42 pm

I don't have a feel for how trustworthy the DGEX is, but it says all hope isn't lost yet.

Extremeweatherguy · #791 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:48 pm

Yeah, the DGEX is impressive. It shows quite a snowstorm for Thursday afternoon and evening. I have no clue about how accurate it is though.

Extremeweatherguy · #792 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 9:44 pm

The Dallas/Fort Worth NWS office is already calling for snow in their forecast. Check out their latest forecast for Hearne, TX (just northwest of College Station)...

Thursday Night: A slight chance of snow or rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

#793 Postby **gboudx** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 9:55 pm

They've had "rain or snow" in my area's forecast for a couple days now. The DGEX's solution is certainly different from last night when it showed nothing. Guess I'll stick to my position of believing the snow/sleet forecast when I see it falling outside.

#794 Postby **wall_cloud** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 10:01 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
wall_cloud wrote:the Texans' infatuation with snow cracks me up. You guys need to stop -removed- and take the models for what they are. Nothing more than a first guess.

Easy to say 700 miles Northwest and 4000 feet in elevation from here, where it snows every winter...

I spent several years at Corpus Christi. Just so happened to snow there too :ggreen:

Ed Mahmoud · #795 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 10:07 pm

wall_cloud wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:
wall_cloud wrote:the Texans' infatuation with snow cracks me up. You guys need to stop -removed- and take the models for what they are. Nothing more than a first guess.

Easy to say 700 miles Northwest and 4000 feet in elevation from here, where it snows every winter...

I spent several years at Corpus Christi. Just so happened to snow there too

Not every year...

#796 Postby **wall_cloud** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 10:16 pm

I'm quite aware of the climatology. last measure snow previous to 2004 was 1973. It was a joke. :cheesy:

Extremeweatherguy · #797 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 11:16 pm

Ed Mahmoud · #798 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 11:37 pm

North Texas might get enough sleet/freezing rain to maybe cancel school. Cold air and moisture do not combine in SETX.

Now, model not quite out to next Sunday afternoon yet (may be by the time I finish typing) shows some impressively cold air heading to New England for the football game.

PSU e-Wall 4 panel loop

Ed Mahmoud · #799 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 11:40 pm

Looking at raw numbers from AccuWx PPV site, temps would be above freezing by enough in DFW area that is is just a cold rain, but GFS used to sometimes be a little warm on Canadian airmasses in Texas, so sleet/snow seems possible.

Extremeweatherguy · #800 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 11:59 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Looking at raw numbers from AccuWx PPV site, temps would be above freezing by enough in DFW area that is is just a cold rain, but GFS used to sometimes be a little warm on Canadian airmasses in Texas, so sleet/snow seems possible.

What I am seeing on the pro site raw numbers indicates a great setup for some wintry weather up near Dallas. Temperatures in the 30s Wednesday evening through Thursday morning at the surface, coupled with -2 to -5C 850mb temperatures and thicknesses in the 530s would be more than capable of bringing snow flakes to the surface. Temperatures do not need to be near freezing for it to snow if the upper levels are cold enough. I personally have seen it snow with temperatures as warm as near 40F and I have seen it sleet with temperatures as warm as 45-46F, so with temperatures in the 30s in Dallas, they shouldn't have a problem (assuming the precipitation doesn't move out before it gets cold enough to support wintry weather).

TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

Re: TX winter weather thread: Winter WX next Thurs/Fri?

Re: TX winter weather thread: Winter WX next Thurs/Fri?

Re: TX winter weather thread: Winter WX next Thurs/Fri?

Re:

Re:

Re: TX winter weather thread: Winter WX next Thurs/Fri?

Re: Re:

Re: TX winter weather thread: Winter WX next Thurs/Fri?

Re: TX winter weather thread: Winter WX next Thurs/Fri?

Re: TX winter weather thread: Winter WX next Thurs/Fri?

Re: TX winter weather thread: Winter WX next Thurs/Fri?

Re: TX winter weather thread: Winter WX next Thurs/Fri?

Re: TX winter weather thread: Winter WX next Thurs/Fri?

Re: TX winter weather thread: Winter WX next Thurs/Fri?

Who is online