NYC snow- JB vs The Models. JB WINS!!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

New WRF coming in, shows over a foot of snow in NYC. JB has insisted the pattern, particularly the non-Arctic nature of the proceeding high, means NYC may end with a couple of inches of wet snow, but will be mostly a rain event.

I don't believe pasting a small sample of what was written in the PPV column violates my user agreement- anyway, NYC- big snow storm, or a little snow at the end of a rainstorm?

I will be putting out a snow forecast ( over 3 inches) a bit later today as I have alot of familial matters going on ( por la familia!) However my gut feeling that this is a coating to an inch in central park, 3-6 in Boston with 8 in the suburbs and some wet snow at the end in PHL. I think that the idea from last week, that it will snow in NYC before it hits 32, and this was in the first of the 3 amigo posts I believe will be right. But as far as snowstorm in NYC, well if a coating to an inch in the park is a snowstorm, then you will get one. However once outside of 287 and at 500 feet in southern New England and north Jersey, well this could get to 3-6 inches in a couple of hours. Since it is like a spring storm, dont be surprised if thunderstorms go off as its snowing!

JB usually schools the models from more than a few days out, but this is a little over a day out. Based on WRF surface, 850 mb temps and 6 hour precip (found at the AccuWx PPV site), NYC gets about half an inch of liquid rain, with 850 mb below freezing but temps starting near 40ºF, but 1.15 inches of liquid equivalent when surface temp is below +1ºC with sub-freezing 850 mb temps and sub-940 dm thicknesses.



It'll be interesting, I know a lot of people on S2K don't seem to like JB, but for spotting trends from a distance, he is usually spot on. So far, his winter forecast from November has been very close to perfect.

[Ed Mahmoud]

0Z GFS suggests NYC might start as rain, with temp around 36ºF as it starts, which is borderline, but probably changes pretty quickly.


Again, depending on how long the transition from rain to snow takes to occur (based on GFS raw numbers every six hours), it would appear at least five inches, and maybe as much as a foot, of snow.


We shall see what we shall see.

[JBG]

It'll be interesting, I know a lot of people on S2K don't seem to like JB, but for spotting trends from a distance, he is usually spot on. So far, his winter forecast from November has been very close to perfect.

What was his winter forecast, no snow for NYC?

[Ed Mahmoud]

It'll be interesting, I know a lot of people on S2K don't seem to like JB, but for spotting trends from a distance, he is usually spot on. So far, his winter forecast from November has been very close to perfect.

What was his winter forecast, no snow for NYC?

Cold December, mostly warm rest of the winter, but he said it was possible for the Northeast to have some snow even when temps are averaging above normal. JB suggests March will be colder than normal, making up somewhat for a warmer than normal middle of winter.

[JBG]

It'll be interesting, I know a lot of people on S2K don't seem to like JB, but for spotting trends from a distance, he is usually spot on. So far, his winter forecast from November has been very close to perfect.

What was his winter forecast, no snow for NYC?

Cold December, mostly warm rest of the winter, but he said it was possible for the Northeast to have some snow even when temps are averaging above normal. JB suggests March will be colder than normal, making up somewhat for a warmer than normal middle of winter.

So he was forecasting something like 1995-6 without the extremely high snowfalls?

[Ed Mahmoud]

wxmaps.org NYC GFS meteogram (will change tomorrow around 11 am)

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z WRF (NE US loop from PSU e-Wall) coming closer to JB's thinking, with majority of precip falling with surface temp at/above 36ºF in NYC, suggesting mostly rain depsite favorable 850 mb temps, with only an inch or two after the changeover around 2 or 3 am.

All/mostly snow in BOS, it would appear, near a foot, no school tomorrow.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 0Z WRF came in a degree or two warm in ISP and LGA. A degree or two warm, Celcius. 6.7ºC vs predicted 0Z temp of 4.2ºC. 0Z WRF has NYC changing to snow just after midnight, but starting so far off on the temps, NYC may never change to snow.


JB might beat the models...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking at liquid equivalent after the change from rain to snow, about a tenth, at NYC and LGA, and fact temps never did reach freezing, probably no snow stuck, and certainly not much more than an inch.


I'd declare JB the winner against the models!

[JBG]

Looking at liquid equivalent after the change from rain to snow, about a tenth, at NYC and LGA, and fact temps never did reach freezing, probably no snow stuck, and certainly not much more than an inch.


I'd declare JB the winner against the models!

He sure was. Where I am, at a pretty good elevation near the Connecticut border right next to the Hutchinson/Merritt Parkway, we got a slushy 1/2 inch. The changeover never really kicked in.

[Lowpressure]

Looking at liquid equivalent after the change from rain to snow, about a tenth, at NYC and LGA, and fact temps never did reach freezing, probably no snow stuck, and certainly not much more than an inch.


I'd declare JB the winner against the models!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking at liquid equivalent after the change from rain to snow, about a tenth, at NYC and LGA, and fact temps never did reach freezing, probably no snow stuck, and certainly not much more than an inch.


I'd declare JB the winner against the models!

What- JB schooled the local NWS office and the models from less than 2 days out.