TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[Kennethb]

You can live by the GFS and die by the GFS. The GFS probably should not shown more than 5 days or so.

I will go with the bird model. Here in Baton Rouge we usually have seen Cedar Waxwings and Robins by around Christmas. So far none of each species. Too there are only a few White Pelicans on the LSU lakes. I guess they forgot to stop. Usually there are a few hundred or more White Pelicans swimming around together foraging for food. Perhaps the lack of migratory birds might be an indicator of the rest of winter?

[southerngale]

I've seen all the talk elsewhere (and some here) about a much colder front around the 21st. NWS Lake Charles AFD this afternoon doesn't make it sound that impressive, or much different than this week's weather:

GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL
ENTER THE PICTURE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
ECMWF SHOWING A VERY SIMILAR SYSTEM TO THE ONE TOMORROW BUT GFS
MUCH FURTHER NORTH. DUE TO THE DISPARITY WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW...AND KEEP TEMPS NEAR GFS GUIDANCE.


Hopefully, we'll get a shot at the white stuff sometime this winter... I want to build a snowman.

[Extremeweatherguy]

And this is from the Houston NWS...

LOOKING FARTHER OUT IN TIME
...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE AIR MASS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. WE SHALL SEE

[jasons2k]

Yeah, the "we shall see" doesn't exactly sound like a ringing endorsement to me.

[Ptarmigan]

In weather, there is no such thing as being "due" for anything. Mother Nature doesn't know the difference. It's the same as using the "return period" to (attempt to) predict if the ___ coast will get struck by a hurricane...or the opposite, taking Florida 2004 as an example: "4 hurricanes have never hit the coast in the same year, so since we've already had 3 hits, our season is over"...those kinds of statistics really mean nothing in the end...what matters is the synoptics & the pattern - the now, not what happened 1,2,5, or 10 years ago.

In a way, you're right. Nature is very sneaky and unpredictable. However, I believe using history is a good way to predict the future.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Arctic is ok, but as hinted at on Siberia thread, the best cold airmasses actually start there and go over the top of the Pole and then come down.

[richtrav]

IF snowfall were random events this would be known as the gambler's fallacy, the notion that since something hasn't occurred in a long time that it will somehow occur more quickly (since we're "overdue"). But events like hurricanes and snow/cold are not uniformly random, the overall odds get tilted some when you're in a period of, say, higher hurricane activity or colder winters (not). The odds also get shifted around from season to season with events like El Nino. You're still playing the odds of course and it could still snow in Houston - think Corpus '04 - just be realistic and realize the cards have been stacked against you since the 1990s. Add that to the trend this year towards dry cold and I would most definitely not get my hopes up. The odds were probably better last year when the winter was wetter and cooler.

We had a couple of hours of freezing drizzle at my house last winter.

Oh well then there ya go, you're not due for another winter event until 2025

[Ed Mahmoud]

IF snowfall were random events this would be known as the gambler's fallacy, the notion that since something hasn't occurred in a long time that it will somehow occur more quickly (since we're "overdue"). But events like hurricanes and snow/cold are not uniformly random, the overall odds get tilted some when you're in a period of, say, higher hurricane activity or colder winters (not). The odds also get shifted around from season to season with events like El Nino. You're still playing the odds of course and it could still snow in Houston - think Corpus '04 - just be realistic and realize the cards have been stacked against you since the 1990s. Add that to the trend this year towards dry cold and I would most definitely not get my hopes up. The odds were probably better last year when the winter was wetter and cooler.

We had a couple of hours of freezing drizzle at my house last winter.

Oh well then there ya go, you're not due for another winter event until 2025

But we're on a winning streak. Snow flurries in 2004, enough to dust cars a bit, freezing drizzle in 2006, sooner or later, that meteorological slot machine is going to come up Triple 7s.

[Extremeweatherguy]

you only had freezing drizzle last year Ed? Which part of Houston do you live in? Up here in Spring, we had about 0.2" of freezing rain.


BTW - Here is a picture I managed to snap during that event..



..It was definitely interesting to see a few icicles down here in Houston. It made it look like winter for a day.

[Portastorm]

Those of you from San Angelo up through north central and north Texas still might see a little frozen precip later this week if you want to believe the 0z GFS.

Take a look:

[gboudx]

DFW NWS doesn't mention any arctic air next week either. Just gradually cooler temps with highs in the 50's. Not even a "we shall see".

[jasons2k]

From Jeff Lindner this morning:

"Cold air still looks to head this way early next week as arctic air mass over Alaska is dislodged and sent southward."

[jasons2k]

Take a look at the 500mb Euro/GFS Mean Flow:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... tcomp.html

This is the kind of pattern where an Arctic Front may come down the plains but two things in the setup would protect SE Texas from a bitter cold outbreak:

1) The coldest air is still centered to the NE.
2) The W/SW flow aloft could tap moisture which could insulate us from having good radiational cooling.

This is the kind of setup that could lead to a winter precip event in Texas but not any kind of record-breaking severe cold. I'm feeling more confident this "outbreak" won't be as severe as some would like to see. Still lots of unknowns this far out, but just something to consider.

[Johnny]

I don't really care to see record breaking cold. What I would like to see is high temps hovering around 29 to 30 with lots of moisture to work with.

[jasons2k]

That would break record lows for Maxima temps which are as follows:

* 23rd = 42F
* 24th = 34F
* 25th = 43F
* 26th = 45F

Plus being below freezing for that long would do a number on the plants and not something I care to see.

[jasons2k]

Side note: Some good news for those of us with Spring Fever - we begin the upward climb out of the lowest averages of the season beginning next Thursday the 24th!!

[gboudx]

Side note: Some good news for those of us with Spring Fever - we begin the upward climb out of the lowest averages of the season beginning next Thursday the 24th!!

I think this past Sunday started the upward climb for DFW.

[Portastorm]

Side note: Some good news for those of us with Spring Fever - we begin the upward climb out of the lowest averages of the season beginning next Thursday the 24th!!

Jason, how can you have spring fever? We've been in the 70s and some 80s in the last few weeks for crying out loud!

As for me and mine, we're hoping for a nice wintry weather event and not the bone-chilling, pipe-busting cold. Who needs that!

[jasons2k]

The warm weather just made it worse....it made me realize how much I miss summer and how much I really hate the cold

[Portastorm]

Today's extended discussion from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) has an interesting comment in speaking about early next week's weather pattern:

"TELECONNECTIONS INDICATE THAT COLDER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER IS
NORMALLY SEEN IN THIS TYPE OF REGIME FROM THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WESTWARD TO THE PACIFIC...WITH A CORE OF AVERAGE NEGATIVE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 5-9 CELSIUS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NORTHWEST INTO MONTANA. THIS ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL BE NO
EXCEPTION...WITH 6-12 CELSIUS NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN THE 00Z GFS
MOS. "