January 17-18, 2008 Mid-Atlantic Snowfall: Initial Thoughts

[donsutherland1]

Over the course of the day, the models have trended somewhat colder and snowier. Although this storm won't be the kind of significant snowfall event for which Mid-Atlantic snow geese yearn, it will still produce some accumulations.

My initial thoughts are as follows:

Baltimore: 1" or less
Hagerstown: 3"-6"
Richmond: 1" or less
Washington, DC:
...DCA: 0.5"-1.5"
...IAD: 1"-3"

Should the models continue to trend colder, somewhat higher amounts will be possible.

[Coredesat]

Based on what I've seen in this area, this forecast seems to have been mostly correct.

[TeeBird]

About 5 inches here in Warrenton, VA - About 50 miles due west of Wash DC

[Squarethecircle]

I might get some pictures up later in the day, but we here in 22101 have close to your upper range IAD forecast. The snow has trailed off a bit, but about one and a half inches of that came in less than two hours.

[terstorm1012]

we're at the northern range of this storm

looks like half an inch in harrisburg.

[Category 5]

It came up here too, we got an inch. Turned to rain now though.

[Squarethecircle]

We got a lot of rain mixed with sleet afterward, but all the better for me (else I wouldn't get to go to Ohio).

[donsutherland1]

Verification:

A generally busted forecast. Just 2/5 (40%) of sites verified. The average error for those that did not verify was 1.1".

From 1/17/2008 12:24 am:
Baltimore: 1" or less; Actual: 2.4"; Error: 1.4"
Hagerstown: 3"-6"; Actual: 2.0"; Error: 1.0"
Richmond: 1" or less; Actual: Trace; Within range
Washington, DC:
...DCA: 0.5"-1.5"; Actual: 1.3"; Within range
...IAD: 1"-3"; Actual: 4.0"; Error: 1.0"