Felix report is up

[Andrew92]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL062007_Felix.pdf

[Andrew92]

150 kt for maximum winds now, after seeing an area of 163-kt surface winds which they think is unrepresentative of its actual intensity. Probably a gust that 163 knots was.

-Andrew92

[HURAKAN]

Félix was an impressive storm. One of the glories of 2007.

[CrazyC83]

Seeing how they set it at 150 kt at 0000Z (operationally was 145 kt), I would have gone 155 kt and 926mb at 0300Z since it was still strengthening at that point when there was no recon data available after Felix chased the Hurricane Hunters away. The pressure I think was 926mb as it was weakening when the 929mb was estimated.

As for that 163 kt SFMR, it was probably a 10 to 15 second gust, although not a peak gust. The pressure was way too high at that point to support 165 kt and the other data does not back it up, especially considering that was not at peak intensity.

[CrazyC83]

As for the remaining TCR's, Erin should be most interesting (I would personally classify it as a 45-50 kt subtropical storm when it regenerated over Oklahoma).

[tolakram]

I hope that someday we learn how to predict intensity.

First, while it was correctly anticipated that Felix would intensify, the rapid intensification that occurred was poorly forecast. For example, the 48-h intensity forecast issued at 0000 UTC 1 September was 95 kt too low.

Wow.

[RL3AO]

This says it all I think.

"Felix’s winds increased by 115 kt – from 35 kt to 150 kt – in the 48 h period ending at 0000 UTC 3 September. In the 24-h period ending at that time, the winds increased by 85 kt. In the history of Atlantic tropical cyclones, only Hurricane Wilma of 2005 is known to have intensified faster over 24- and 48-h periods."

[HURAKAN]

Félix was probably proud of that feat!!! When you're compared to Wilma, you're something!!!

[Coredesat]

As for the remaining TCR's, Erin should be most interesting (I would personally classify it as a 45-50 kt subtropical storm when it regenerated over Oklahoma).

I think Erin might well have been tropical, but based on the radar signature I can see how a subtropical designation would have worked.

As for Felix, I'm not surprised they upped the maximum intensity. I had a feeling it was stronger than 145 kt.

[Derek Ortt]

I have a sneaking suspicion that Erin will be designated as ET over Oklahoma (which I do not agree with, but maybe there is some data I have not yet seen)

[CrazyC83]

The damage reported on the TCR is nothing new - basically all they had available was media reports.

[Cyclenall]

Glad to see it up to 150 knots at max strength. I agree with crazy, I think it reached 155 knots. I also wonder about the final landfall strength, it was like Hurricane Andrew with a smaller eye and looked very ferocious.

[CrazyC83]

Glad to see it up to 150 knots at max strength. I agree with crazy, I think it reached 155 knots. I also wonder about the final landfall strength, it was like Hurricane Andrew with a smaller eye and looked very ferocious.

Andrew seems like the most comparable storm to Felix indeed since both had high pressures for their intensity. The lack of any real data in the last few hours before landfall or at landfall creates some questions. It could be anywhere from 135 to 150 kt IMO (since it was definitely 135 kt at 0600/4). I think 140 kt is the best landfall estimate though given the uncertainty.

My 155 kt estimate (up from my original 150 kt estimate) is simply based on my thinking that it was still strengthening after 0000/3 when the mission was aborted. Since they have it listed at 150 at that point (instead of the original 145), I figured it reached 155 at 0300/3. My 926mb pressure estimate would have been between 0300/3 and 0600/3, before the 929mb was taken at 0700/3 (since it was weakening at that point).

[Chacor]

Dean's report will likely show an increase to 150 kts too, based on the ATCF 'final' best-track.

[CrazyC83]

Dean's report will likely show an increase to 150 kts too, based on the ATCF 'final' best-track.

Interesting, I figured Dean's peak intensity would remain unchanged as it was well-covered by recon right up to landfall, although the dropsonde data I believe supported 150 kt and the SFMR only supported about 135 kt (so 145 kt would be the blend of the two and supported by flight-level winds).

[Category 5]

I'm not surprised by this at all.

Felix went off like a bomb that day.

[Ptarmigan]

I expected that Felix had 150 kts winds. It would not surprise me if Felix had 155 kts winds. Felix really bombed out.

[HURAKAN]

[Cyclone1]

Wow... I forgot how incredible Felix looked...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Felix was a very intense storm. Hopefully storms
don't hit land at the horrific category 5, or cat 1+ for that
matter.