SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[vbhoutex]

The one consistency I have seen in the models is for much cooler temps for our area for the 15th through the 22nd or so with temps not getting above 50º during that time period. That is unusual for our area. No arctic blast included that I see though, just a long bout of cool temps. As usual we wait and we watch.

[jinftl]

CPC Temp Outlook...still looking above normal for the eastern half of the U.S...after that it will just about be time to see if the groundhog is expecting an early spring!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

jinftl - Are we looking at the same image? The image I see shows normal and below normal temperatures for most of the country (including the eastern half of the U.S.) and the only area shown to be warmer than normal is up in the northern plains.

[jasons2k]

Strange - yes that is a different image...

Anyway, the line was pretty wimpy when it went through today. Not that I was expecting a severe weather event, but geez, it sure was a dud....

[vbhoutex]

jinftl - Are we looking at the same image? The image I see shows normal and below normal temperatures for most of the country (including the eastern half of the U.S.) and the only area shown to be warmer than normal is up in the northern plains.

The image that was posted earlier showed what he says. It now shows what you are saying. Apparently not a static image post.

[jasons2k]

Interesting.....

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
535 AM CST WED JAN 9 2008

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE UPPER TX COAST WITH STILL A FEW
SHOWERS RIDING OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE. MOIST FLOW OVER THE
FRONT WILL ALSO KEEP CLOUD COVER IN PLACE FOR SE TX THIS MORNING.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD ERODE WITH SHOWERS REMAINING OFF THE COAST.
CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH. MAX TEMPS IN
THE 60S LOOK GOOD WITH LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL
BE IN PLACE THE LONGEST.

Strange - when I walked outside at 7:00 this morning it was as clear as a bell, has been all morning.....

[Ptarmigan]

NWS Houston Forecast as of 3:06 PM

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34.

Hmmmmmm. This will be interesting for sure. Could see some sleet.

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff Lindner:

***Big changes in store for the area as coastal storm system develops Tuesday evening.***

Will get right to it this morning as multiple weather concerns are unfolding this morning for the Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday period as rapidly deepening low pressure forms off the TX coast. Strong upper trough digging southward this morning over N Mexico with increasing sub-tropical flow aloft from the central Pacific across Mexico into the NW Gulf and S TX. Cirrus will thicken today in response to digging upper trough. At the surface a coastal trough will form tonight along the lower TX coast as surface pressures fall ahead of the main upper trough over MX. As the upper low begins to move eastward on Tuesday large scale ascent will overspread the region with surface low pressure developing off the lower TX coast. Surface low will rapidly deepen Tuesday night as strong dynamics come to bear as the upper trough ejects into TX. Current GFS track of surface low is across our outer 20-60NM waters while deepening into the 1010 to 1006mb range and then toward 1004mb as it moves toward the SE LA coast. Far southward track of this low will keep area cold sectored for the entire event…temps. will remain in the 40’s of Wednesday. Will break out all the hazards and address below.

Rainfall:

Models are in good agreement that the entire area…especially coastal sections will get a good dose of rainfall. Good isentropic ascent will develop late Tuesday from SW to NE across the area with cloud deck rapidly lowering. Expect light rain to become showers Tuesday night and widespread rainfall by Wed AM as coastal storm develops and pushes across the coastal waters. Basin average amounts of 1-2 inches are likely…which will mainly be welcomed rains for this area. Widespread nature of the event come pose a minor flood risk for the Tres Palacios River and the lower San Bernard River if basin wide averages of 1.5 inches does fall.

Winds/ Seas/ Tides:

Winds will shift to the E today and back to the ENE and NE on Tuesday as surface low develops. As low deepens off the coast winds will increase into the 20-35mph range with gust to gale force over the coastal waters. Seas will build rapidly Tuesday into Wed peaking around 10-13ft Wed PM. Long fetch and strong easterly winds ahead of surface low will pile water into the coast Tuesday night. Expect tides to run 1-2 feet above normal…possibly a little higher in the bays. Wed PM high tide is a long high tide and should the coastal low be slower to move eastward we could see some problems with that high tide cycle…with overwash at the beaches. Needless to say marine conditions will become hazardous by late Tuesday with near gale conditions across the coastal Gulf waters and high end small craft adv conditions across the bays. Small craft should remain in port after midnight Tuesday.

Temperatures:

Track of surface low will keep the entire area cold sectored with gusty NE winds drawing cold air into the region. Temps. will reach the low 60’s on Tuesday and we may not see the 60’s again for a while. Expect temps. to hold steady in the 40’s on Wed under thick clouds and rain.

Aviation:

The entire week looks like a nightmare across the eastern 2/3rds of the nation. Current nor’easter will depart the northeast today only to be replaced by western Gulf surface cyclone Tuesday. Locally poor visibility from rains, clouds, and low ceiling will result in delays on Wed along the Gulf coast. As low tracks ENE and then NE up the US E coast all major airports should be impacted with winter mix precip. and very strong winds.

Extended:

Surface low and upper trough move east of the area late Wed and appear to go on to become a major weather concern for the US E coast with the latest GFS showing a “bombing” surface low tracking along the US E coast with pressures falling from 1004mb in the NE Gulf to 983mb off of Cape Cod. Back over TX moisture looks to be slower to clear out and will linger clouds into Thursday. Cold air will surge southward behind the departing storm system…but this air is not of arctic origin and is more a mix of Pacific and Canadian air. Expect some areas to get near freezing Friday AM if skies clear out. Next storm system digs into MX and head ENE Friday. This was the system looking like it could spread winter precip. across TX last week. Models now take this storm deeper into the Gulf and are not as aggressive with the cold air in place. For now will suppress precip. to deep south TX and the coastal bend regions Friday and Saturday with only an increase in clouds over SE TX. I am a little worried about the northern edge of the precip. shield as some of it could fall as sleet…but with surface temps well above freezing there should be no hazards..not to mention most of the precip. should remain south of a line from Del Rio to Rockport.

General consensus this morning that upper air pattern will amplify this weekend as has been suggested for the past several days. Pattern looks very favorable for a good cold air dump into the US. Current temps. in Alaska are running in the -30’s to -40’s and some of this air may break loose and come southward early next week. We shall see how this unfolds.

[vbhoutex]

IOW, typical Houston winter(if we even have one)-COLD AND WET!!!! UUUGGGHHH!!!!

[Ptarmigan]

:uarrow:

IOW, typical Houston winter(if we even have one)-COLD AND WET!!!! UUUGGGHHH!!!!

Those cold and rainy days. I hate them too.

[jasons2k]

Latest from Jeff Lindner:

Conditions will deteriorate today as coastal storm system develops.

Potent upper trough over N MX is starting to open and push eastward forcing surface pressure falls along the lower TX coast. Winds have already backed at CRP and Port Lavaca and are sustained at 22mph at CRP. Surface low will form off the mouth of the Rio Grande and push ENE across the NW Gulf toward LA over the next 24-36 hours. High impact weather will affect all locations starting late this afternoon as NW Gulf cyclone deepens rapidly. Strong 100kt-110kt entrance of upper jet is located over coastal plains of TX this morning with lead short wave impulse crossing the area. Very dry near surface layer is preventing much rain from reaching the ground even though the radars are very colorful. Only sites that have reported rain so far as Wharton, Port Lavaca, and Victoria. Wet bulb cooling and subsequent rise in surface dewpoints will result in the air mass saturating by late this afternoon and rainfall to start reaching the ground.

Impressive lift comes to bear tonight as Gulf low and upper trough move across. Strong isentropic processes will be at work on the E and NE sides of the Gulf low as Gulf moisture is brought N up and over the surface cold dome. Strong lift will also come from approaching upper trough and favorable sub-tropical jet position. See no reason to go against categorical rain chances all areas (80-100%) and will also ramp up QPF along the coast into the 1-3” range. Current HPC forecast has a 2” bullseye over the Matagorda Bay complex with widespread 1” across most of the region. May be some isolate elevated thunderstorms along the coast…most likely this should remain offshore closer to the track of the surface low.

Marine

Conditions will go downhill rapidly this afternoon and tonight as strong Gulf cyclogenesis occurs. Track of surface low continues to be forecasted across our outer coastal waters with pressures falling through the 1000-1010mb range. Winds and seas will greatly increase later this afternoon and winds will howl out of the ENE tonight and Wednesday. High end SCA conditions all Gulf waters with frequent gust to and above gale force. Seas will build into the 12-15 foot range by early Wednesday. Track of surface low and increasing easterly winds will result in tidal pile-up along the coast starting late tonight. Luckily tides are astronomically lower at this time and period of strong easterly flow will be short lived. Expect tides to run 1-2 feet above normal which will not cause problems locally..but may see HWY 87 overwashed between Port Arthur and Cameron LA.

Extended:

Coastal low will depart the region early Thursday with cold air advection at the surface keeping temps. cool into the weekend. Next short wave drops through the broad upper trough over the US and skirts south of the region Friday/Saturday. Will maintain just cloudy and cool conditions and limit rain chances to our far SW counties. It may be cold enough during this period for a little sleet on the northern edge of the precip. area…roughly along and S of a Victoria to Del Rio line.

Cold air still looks to head this way early next week as arctic air mass over Alaska is dislodged and sent southward.

[jasons2k]

Some good news for those of use with Spring Fever - we begin the upward climb out of the lowest averages of the season beginning next Thursday the 24th!!

[Diva]

So when can we expect to see this rain ending today??

[jasons2k]

THIS is what I call a coastal low:

[southerngale]

Well, I got a lot more rain than the expected 1 - 2 inch totals. According to NWS LCH AFD at 5:27am, my area already had over 4 inches at that time, and it's been raining since then, although it looks like it will all be ending pretty soon. My yard looks like a lake... going to be a long time before it dries out.

Kinda OT: I can't wait until I move! My yard seems to hold onto a wet ground like crazy. Just this past Sunday, when there were cars lined up behind each other in my driveway, I had to go through the yard a little to get around and got stuck! It didn't take long to get out, but this is a regular yard with grass, and it takes forever between rainy days to dry out. There are big ruts along the side of my driveway. Before this event, I remember reading in the NWS LCH AFD about how the ground was pretty dry, and I'm thinking... seen my neighborhood? For someone who has always LOVED rain, thunderstorms, rainy days... because of the problem with my yard almost never drying out (it finally did some in the fall when it didn't rain for a while), I get a little frustrated with rain these days. I'm sure when I eventually move and have a place that dries out faster, I'll love it again. lol
It's hard to enjoy our yard and get yard work done with the usual standing water though. And you should see it now, after all this rain. Sorry for complaining.... but I just came to the realization that not everyone has to deal with this, and I can't wait to get my yard and house ready to list. I have a dream of being able to sit on the porch and enjoy the rain! Mine is too small now... you'd be sitting partially in the rain. After house hunting for well over a year, and more intense since summer, I think this is the year I'll finally move!


Here's a storm total map from NWS LCH:

[Ptarmigan]

Well, I got a lot more rain than the expected 1 - 2 inch totals. According to NWS LCH AFD at 5:27am, my area already had over 4 inches at that time, and it's been raining since then, although it looks like it will all be ending pretty soon. My yard looks like a lake... going to be a long time before it dries out.

Kinda OT: I can't wait until I move! My yard seems to hold onto a wet ground like crazy. Just this past Sunday, when there were cars lined up behind each other in my driveway, I had to go through the yard a little to get around and got stuck! It didn't take long to get out, but this is a regular yard with grass, and it takes forever between rainy days to dry out. There are big ruts along the side of my driveway. Before this event, I remember reading in the NWS LCH AFD about how the ground was pretty dry, and I'm thinking... seen my neighborhood? For someone who has always LOVED rain, thunderstorms, rainy days... because of the problem with my yard almost never drying out (it finally did some in the fall when it didn't rain for a while), I get a little frustrated with rain these days. I'm sure when I eventually move and have a place that dries out faster, I'll love it again. lol
It's hard to enjoy our yard and get yard work done with the usual standing water though. And you should see it now, after all this rain. Sorry for complaining.... but I just came to the realization that not everyone has to deal with this, and I can't wait to get my yard and house ready to list. I have a dream of being able to sit on the porch and enjoy the rain! Mine is too small now... you'd be sitting partially in the rain. After house hunting for well over a year, and more intense since summer, I think this is the year I'll finally move!


Here's a storm total map from NWS LCH:

I looked at NWS Houston's radar and notice some areas south of Beaumont got up to 8" of rain.

[Extremeweatherguy]

[jasons2k]

Looks like it may be time to switch modes and look for springlike T-storms. I hope I don't have to post much more in the winter forum this season - I'm ready for some warmth!!

From Jeff Lindner:

Not to sound like a broken record, but wet weather continues for the next 18 hours or so.

Old polar ridge over the region slowly eroding from top to surface this morning as increasing Gulf flow translates northward and very active sub-tropical jet bangs away in split flow upper air pattern. Coastal low forming off of Brownsville will move up the coast today increasing the rain to widespread by afternoon. Shallow cold air mass will gradually erode/mix out overnight tonight as warm front moves northward and coastal low passes on to the east of the area. Low levels dry on Saturday..however noisy upper jet remains overhead with lots of Pacific moisture to pump over the region.

Rains will end early Saturday with mostly cloudy skies through the weekend with temps. pushing into the upper 60’s and lower 70’s about 20-25 degrees warmer than today.

Next Week

Fast progressive upper flow evolves with at least two weak frontal passages…one on Tuesday and the other on Thursday. The Thursday system looks strong on the dynamics side as an upper low ejects across SW TX placing the region within very favorable lifting and venting from the upper air pattern. May see out first real severe weather outbreak of the winter/spring season late next week.

[jinftl]

Looks like Southern Plains into the Upper Midwest will be the battle ground between above and below normal temps in the extended oulook....set-up for storms?

Looks like it may be time to switch modes and look for springlike T-storms. I hope I don't have to post much more in the winter forum this season - I'm ready for some warmth!!

From Jeff Lindner:

Not to sound like a broken record, but wet weather continues for the next 18 hours or so.

Old polar ridge over the region slowly eroding from top to surface this morning as increasing Gulf flow translates northward and very active sub-tropical jet bangs away in split flow upper air pattern. Coastal low forming off of Brownsville will move up the coast today increasing the rain to widespread by afternoon. Shallow cold air mass will gradually erode/mix out overnight tonight as warm front moves northward and coastal low passes on to the east of the area. Low levels dry on Saturday..however noisy upper jet remains overhead with lots of Pacific moisture to pump over the region.

Rains will end early Saturday with mostly cloudy skies through the weekend with temps. pushing into the upper 60’s and lower 70’s about 20-25 degrees warmer than today.

Next Week

Fast progressive upper flow evolves with at least two weak frontal passages…one on Tuesday and the other on Thursday. The Thursday system looks strong on the dynamics side as an upper low ejects across SW TX placing the region within very favorable lifting and venting from the upper air pattern. May see out first real severe weather outbreak of the winter/spring season late next week.

[CajunMama]

Very dense fog here in lafayette parish this morning. It's slowly lifting and after it lifts we should have a beautiful day.