Winter Weather in the deep south thread

[timNms]

This has to be a dream...

http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/?p=5057

5 to 10 inches?

What does this mean for south Mississippi? (Particularly the Hattiesburg/Laurel area?)

[Brent]

BMX about to issue a Winter Storm Watch, according to ABC 33/40.

GFS still not as aggressive as the NAM, but still decent for snow.

[Kennethb]

Its all about which model you go with. To be on the safe, conservative, side the NAM should be considered, though a compromise between the NAM and GFS will likely be the outcome. It will be a matter of timing and how and where the upper level feature develops in reflection to the surface low.

It is all about the health, safety and welfare of the public. And if one of the semi-reliable models is showing a signifcant weather event, then the public needs to be prepared just in case it comes to fruition.

[brunota2003]

So, for extreme eastern NC (ie New Bern to Morehead City), what are the models showing? I heard from the NWS earlier this afternoon we could see a brief mix or change over right before the precip ends...kinda hoping for something more, like perhaps accumulating snow for the first time since Dec 2004?

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFS...

[AL Chili Pepper]

Not a watch yet, but cool anyway. Also, the current temp in Monroe, LA is 30F, 18 degrees colder that Jackson, MS. The cold air is inching into northern LA and NW MS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
943 PM CST THU JAN 17 2008

LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ040>053-180545-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON-FRANKLIN-
TENSAS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-
RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BASTROP...OAK GROVE...EPPS...
LAKE PROVIDENCE...RAYVILLE...DELHI...TALLULAH...WINNSBORO...
NEWELLTON...ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...MAYERSVILLE...
ROLLING FORK...ANGUILLA...YAZOO CITY...RIDGELAND...MADISON...
CANTON...CARTHAGE...PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...DE KALB...
SCOOBA...VICKSBURG...JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...
FOREST...MORTON...NEWTON...UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...
MERIDIAN...PORT GIBSON
943 PM CST THU JAN 17 2008

...A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF LATE FRIDAY AND PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA
ON SATURDAY. A MIXTURE OF COLD LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FLURRIES SHOULD
DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING HOWEVER...AS THE STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST
REACHES NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 3 AM AND
NOON SATURDAY MORNING...SOME COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AND THE
WINTRY MIXTURE SHOULD BECOME ALL LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE THE
INTENSITY AND DURATION OF THE WINTER MIX AND CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW.
AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW OTHER THAN A DUSTING IN WET GRASSY AREAS. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RESIDENTS SHOULD CHECK LATER FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL
WINTER WEATHER.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New WRF would lay down several inches of snow North of a rain snow line that looks to run near Meridien and Jackson, MS



For those lucky to live in that narrow zone between light precip and just rain, six to ten inches, by my figuring, of good packing snow. Not sure about snow removal, a Saturday snow in NYC or BOS or ORD is usually wasted, kids have school Monday, but if MEI or BHM or ATL get six or eight inches, and temps Sunday stay below freezing, well, maybe there will be joy.


Reminds me of that TV show about the year there almost wasn't a Christmas and Mrs. Claus, who sounded like Hazel, the maid, and an elf visited Mother Nature and her two children. Except a month too late.

[HarlequinBoy]

I think here we'll be just cloudy. Definitely will be cold enough for snow, but the precip shield will stay to the south. I'm too pessimistic to hope for a northward trend, lol.

I do hope central MS gets some snow though!! They haven't had a good one since 2000.

[JonathanBelles]

Now that we have a moisture train, we need a very strong cold shot.

[Brent]

Meh, 6z NAM, very I dunno, borderline. Heaviest precip for most of the event south of the 0C line.

[Extremeweatherguy]

6z GFS...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Winter Storm Watch for Alabama...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
410 AM CST FRI JAN 18 2008

...SNOW EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA...

.THE PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR A POSSIBLE SNOW STORM IN THE DEEP
SOUTH. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE COAST
ON SATURDAY. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA SNOW
LOOKS POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS ROANOKE...CLANTON AND LIVINGSTON.

ALZ012-013-015-017>038-181815-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WS.A.0001.080119T1000Z-080120T0200Z/
LAMAR-FAYETTE-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-
PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SULLIGENT...VERNON...FAYETTE...JASPER...
ONEONTA...GADSDEN...ANNISTON...CENTRE...HEFLIN...CARROLLTON...
TUSCALOOSA...BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...
ALABASTER...PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...
ROANOKE...LIVINGSTON...EUTAW...GREENSBORO...MOUNDVILLE...MARION...
CENTREVILLE...CLANTON...ROCKFORD...ALEXANDER CITY...DADEVILLE...
VALLEY...LANETT...LAFAYETTE
410 AM CST FRI JAN 18 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION...PREDOMINATELY SNOW...IS EXPECTED TO FALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BEGINNING SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE FRIDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BETWEEN TUSCALOOSA AND MOUNT CHEAHA.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 30 AND 34 DEGREES
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. WITH THESE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. ROADWAYS MAY BECOME SLICK IN
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES OVERPASSES AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADS.
VISIBILITY MAY BECOME LIMITED AS WELL. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST IT LOOKS
PROBABLE THAT SOME SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. STAY
ADVISED AS WE WILL LIKELY BE UPDATING AND OR REVISING THIS WATCH
AS THE EVENT DEVELOPS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[Lowpressure]

WINTER STORM WATCH for the entire Charlotte Metro area. Southern Piedmont of NC looking for up to 4 inches!

[Ivanhater]

12 nam coming out..looking like the snow threat shifting to south Alabama!

[rsvh2000]

I am trying to figure how this will play out in Columbia, SC. Everything still showing as rain with snow chances just north and west of us. Can anyone please tell me what you think??

Thanks

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z NAM looks VERY interesting for the Atlanta area, as well as many other areas of the southeast...

[Cristina]

Hi, what does the model show for the Atlanta area? I live north of Atlanta... does it appear that we're going to get more snow than what we got on Wed?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hi, what does the model show for the Atlanta area? I live north of Atlanta... does it appear that we're going to get more snow than what we got on Wed?

If the NAM model is correct, then the answer is most likely yes. However, we still need to watch how things play out in the next 12-24 hours to be for sure. The exact setup of surface temperatures, upper level temperatures and the precipitation shield will be crucial in determining who gets what. ATM though, I definitely do think Atlanta has a decent chance at getting a pretty good storm.

[Lowpressure]

Models seem to be sticking to thier guns on this one. They are almost screaming southern snow. It will be very interesting to see.

[Marilyn]

On the models what is that red /orange line is that the cold air line? i wonder what south of Charlotte will get . We are 2 hours southeast of Charlotte. always right on the line of getting a pretty good snow.I would be happy with an inch.