-Springfield, MO Tornado Outbreak, Miss Valley/G'Lakes

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

I agree that area is one to watch for potential squall-breakers. Nighttime tornadoes are especially dangerous.

[CrazyC83]

Current tornado count: 11

EF0 - 1
EF1 - 3
EF2 - 4
EF3 - 3

[CrazyC83]

SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 12
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM EST TUE JAN 8 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST INDIANA
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OHIO

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1005 PM
UNTIL 400 AM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTH OF CINCINNATI
OHIO TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF COLUMBUS OHIO. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 9. WATCH NUMBER 9 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1005
PM EST. CONTINUE...WW 11...

DISCUSSION...POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE FOR A LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE
EVENT WITH HIGH WIND/MARGINAL HAIL AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENCOUNTERS TIGHTENING LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE NOW NEARING SDF.
INTENSITY OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION/INCREASING DPVA SUGGEST POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLD TORNADOES
DESPITE INCREASINGLY LINEAR LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 300.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.


...CORFIDI


SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 12
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM EST TUE JAN 8 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST INDIANA
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OHIO

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1005 PM
UNTIL 400 AM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTH OF CINCINNATI
OHIO TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF COLUMBUS OHIO. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 9. WATCH NUMBER 9 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1005
PM EST. CONTINUE...WW 11...

DISCUSSION...POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE FOR A LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE
EVENT WITH HIGH WIND/MARGINAL HAIL AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENCOUNTERS TIGHTENING LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE NOW NEARING SDF.
INTENSITY OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION/INCREASING DPVA SUGGEST POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLD TORNADOES
DESPITE INCREASINGLY LINEAR LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 300.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.


...CORFIDI


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 090259
WOU2

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 12
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM EST TUE JAN 8 2008

TORNADO WATCH 12 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

INC029-047-077-115-137-155-161-090900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0012.080109T0305Z-080109T0900Z/

IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DEARBORN FRANKLIN JEFFERSON
OHIO RIPLEY SWITZERLAND
UNION


KYC015-017-023-037-041-073-077-081-097-103-117-135-161-181-185-
187-191-201-209-211-223-090900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0012.080109T0305Z-080109T0900Z/

KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOONE BOURBON BRACKEN
CAMPBELL CARROLL FRANKLIN
GALLATIN GRANT HARRISON
HENRY KENTON LEWIS
MASON NICHOLAS OLDHAM
OWEN PENDLETON ROBERTSON
SCOTT SHELBY TRIMBLE


OHC001-011-015-017-021-023-025-027-041-045-047-049-057-061-065-
071-073-089-091-097-109-113-129-131-135-141-145-149-159-165-
090900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0012.080109T0305Z-080109T0900Z/

OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS AUGLAIZE BROWN
BUTLER CHAMPAIGN CLARK
CLERMONT CLINTON DELAWARE
FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN
GREENE HAMILTON HARDIN
HIGHLAND HOCKING LICKING
LOGAN MADISON MIAMI
MONTGOMERY PICKAWAY PIKE
PREBLE ROSS SCIOTO
SHELBY UNION WARREN


ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW2
WW 12 TORNADO IN KY OH 090305Z - 090900Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60S LUK/CINCINNATI OH/ - 50NNW CMH/COLUMBUS OH/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /49SSE CVG - 43ENE ROD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 300. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.

REPLACES WW 9..AR IL IN KY LA MO MS TN

LAT...LON 38228570 40658458 40658191 38228312

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.


Watch 12 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[HarlequinBoy]

It will be interesting to see the surveys from today and how many unreported tornadoes are found.

[F. Prefect]

Not to toot my own horn, well, maybe just a little, I think I have a pretty good knack as an untrained amateur spotting severe weather out a week away.


Thread from October


That thread got to 32 pages...

Your tooting makes a very good point. I live about 35 miles south of Springfield in Branson, MO, and 3 or 4 days prior to the events of Jan 7 PM and Jan 8 AM there was hardly a mention of a chance of any severe weather much less a major outbreak.

Perhaps some day we'll have the ability to forecast tornadoes with the precision and accuracy of a hurricane forecast, but the minor variables that all have to fall into place to produce a significant widespread tornado event can change so rapidly, make that nearly impossible. On the morning of the 7th, a mesoscale discussion I read on I believe the Weather Underground only predicted a slight chance of any significant severe weather outbreak, but to their credit, they had NE OK up through the Springfield, MO area in SW MO, and on to the NE as the most likely area for such developement. And in less than all of 6 hours later, they were proven to be correct! 6 Hours! Not bad.

F. Prefect

[Category 5]

Has anyone heard anything from Garrett? He still lives in Monett.

Looks like an EF2 hit the area but stayed just south of Monett.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=010808_tornadoes

[Ed Mahmoud]

Is anyone creating a Wiki entry? What is the link to it?

[RL3AO]

Here Ed. It will likely be changed to January 2008 Tornado Outbreak Sequence if tomorrow is busy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_20 ... o_Outbreak

[Bunkertor]

Here Ed. It will likely be changed to January 2008 Tornado Outbreak Sequence if tomorrow is busy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_20 ... o_Outbreak

This work is excellent.

What do you guys expect for tomorrow 12z ... ?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Good read. I know the press will make noise if NHC is caught by surprise, but SPC should have gone moderate after the 12Z models came out (IMHO). OK, surface based CAPE was generally under 1000 J/Kg, but deep layer shear and 0-1km helicity numbers in the Ozarks were quite high.


IIRC, temps were only in the 60s during the Houston, TX November 1992 outbreak, implying CAPE probably wasn't kick butt, but low level vorticity was enough to do the trick.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Here Ed. It will likely be changed to January 2008 Tornado Outbreak Sequence if tomorrow is busy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_20 ... o_Outbreak

This work is excellent.

What do you guys expect for tomorrow 12z ... ?

There is a thread for that...

[Bunkertor]

There is a thread for that...

Ah, thanks for assist - i didn´t see the latest posts.

[HarlequinBoy]

Yeah, kudos on those Wiki pages you guys. They're so informative and helpful.

[NWS Forecaster]

That was a crazy day to be sure! My jaw was on the ground when I issued all of those warnings and statements.

Bill Borghoff

Is it really January???? It has been 41 years since we have seen this so far north...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
417 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

WIC059-101-072245-
/O.CON.KMKX.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080107T2245Z/
RACINE WI-KENOSHA WI-
417 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CST FOR KENOSHA
AND RACINE COUNTIES...

AT 413 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND LAW
ENFORCEMENT WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WHEATLAND AND NORTH OF NEW
MUNSTER...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
UNION GROVE BY 425 PM CST...
KENOSHA AIRPORT AND KENOSHA ARPT(KENW) BY 430 PM CST...
ELMWOOD PARK AND STURTEVANT BY 435 PM CST...
DOWNTOWN RACINE...NORTH BAY...RACINE BATTEN ARPT(KRAC) AND RACINE
BATTEN AIRPORT BY 440 PM CST...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

LAT...LON 4268 8777 4265 8776 4264 8778 4257 8778
4249 8780 4248 8831 4271 8830 4285 8783
4278 8773
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 252DEG 42KT 4261 8813

$$

BORGHOFF

[Ed Mahmoud]

That was a crazy day to be sure! My jaw was on the ground when I issued all of those warnings and statements.

Bill Borghoff

Is it really January???? It has been 41 years since we have seen this so far north...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
417 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

WIC059-101-072245-
/O.CON.KMKX.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080107T2245Z/
RACINE WI-KENOSHA WI-
417 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CST FOR KENOSHA
AND RACINE COUNTIES...

AT 413 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND LAW
ENFORCEMENT WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WHEATLAND AND NORTH OF NEW
MUNSTER...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
UNION GROVE BY 425 PM CST...
KENOSHA AIRPORT AND KENOSHA ARPT(KENW) BY 430 PM CST...
ELMWOOD PARK AND STURTEVANT BY 435 PM CST...
DOWNTOWN RACINE...NORTH BAY...RACINE BATTEN ARPT(KRAC) AND RACINE
BATTEN AIRPORT BY 440 PM CST...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

LAT...LON 4268 8777 4265 8776 4264 8778 4257 8778
4249 8780 4248 8831 4271 8830 4285 8783
4278 8773
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 252DEG 42KT 4261 8813

$$

BORGHOFF

Your anonymity is gone. Like Face Book. Lets hope no drunken pictures from Spring Break Cancun 1996 show up

[CrazyC83]

That was a crazy day to be sure! My jaw was on the ground when I issued all of those warnings and statements.

Bill Borghoff

Is it really January???? It has been 41 years since we have seen this so far north...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
417 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

WIC059-101-072245-
/O.CON.KMKX.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080107T2245Z/
RACINE WI-KENOSHA WI-
417 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CST FOR KENOSHA
AND RACINE COUNTIES...

AT 413 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND LAW
ENFORCEMENT WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WHEATLAND AND NORTH OF NEW
MUNSTER...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
UNION GROVE BY 425 PM CST...
KENOSHA AIRPORT AND KENOSHA ARPT(KENW) BY 430 PM CST...
ELMWOOD PARK AND STURTEVANT BY 435 PM CST...
DOWNTOWN RACINE...NORTH BAY...RACINE BATTEN ARPT(KRAC) AND RACINE
BATTEN AIRPORT BY 440 PM CST...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

LAT...LON 4268 8777 4265 8776 4264 8778 4257 8778
4249 8780 4248 8831 4271 8830 4285 8783
4278 8773
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 252DEG 42KT 4261 8813

$$

BORGHOFF

Your anonymity is gone. Like Face Book. Lets hope no drunken pictures from Spring Break Cancun 1996 show up

HAHA, our Spring Break should be in Tornado Alley, not in the tropics (at least not in this hemisphere)...