TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[Ed Mahmoud]

We're all going to die!*

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
259 PM CST THU JAN 17 2008

TXZ122-135-142>148-156>162-174-175-180400-
VAN ZANDT-HENDERSON-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-FREESTONE-
ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-LEON-
MILAM-ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...
VAN...EDGEWOOD...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...GOLDTHWAITE...
HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...
CORSICANA...TEAGUE...FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE...LAMPASAS...
COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE...KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...
WACO...MARLIN...MEXIA...GROESBECK...BUFFALO...CENTERVILLE...
JEWETT...OAKWOOD...CAMERON...ROCKDALE...HEARNE...FRANKLIN...
CALVERT
259 PM CST THU JAN 17 2008

A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY AND HAS
USHERED IN A COLD AIRMASS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
LOWEST. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN. THE LARGEST THREAT
OF ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
GOLDTHWAITE TO HILLSBORO TO CANTON. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OR ICE ARE EXPECTED AS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATE MORNING WHICH WILL CEASE THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL WINTER PRECIPITATION WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL CONTINUALLY BE ASSESSED
THROUGH THE EVENING. IF FUTURE DATA SUPPORTS A GREATER IMPACT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...OR CHECK http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION

*- Sometime in the next minute to century

[jasons2k]

Excellent discussion from NWS Houston today, not much to add here, looks like a typical January pattern with the winter weather threats generally north of the Houston metro area and no severe "arctic blasts" indicated, just a few typical mid-winter fronts:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
322 PM CST THU JAN 17 2008

.DISCUSSION...
TODAYS FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC THAN YESTERDAYS
FORECAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BAJA
PENINSULA AROUND A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
U.S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HINTS AT THIS SHORTWAVE SLOWING DOWN A
BIT. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG JET AT 300MB DIVING S OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WHICH SHOULD HELP KICK THE SHORTWAVE EAST
AND HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE TX SAT MORNING.

SHORT RANGE MODELS NAMELY THE 12Z NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE INDEED
SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE WHICH MEANS RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. RAIN SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER 12Z FRI ACROSS SE TX WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING
AFTER 18Z. TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE CWA MAINLY
FROM BURLESON TO HOUSTON COUNTIES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
FROZEN PRECIP. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN IS MOIST AND COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SLEET. THE FORECAST
WILL STICK WITH RAIN FOR NOW. RAIN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH TEMPS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S EXCEPT FOR ALONG
THE COAST. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE RIO GRANDE IN
THE EVENING WITH NW GULF SFC LOW WELL OFFSHORE. THIS MAY KEEP
HEAVY RAINFALL OFF THE COAST AND NOT POSE A FLOODING THREAT.
AGAIN TEMPS AFTER 00Z SAT OR FRI EVENING WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE CONCERNED ABOUT FROZE PRECIP AGAIN FROM CALDWELL TO CROCKETT.
THE CHANCE OF FROZEN PRECIP FROM 00Z TO 06Z SAT MAY BE A TAD
BETTER AS STRONG QG FORCING BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS IS PROBABLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR WHEN
FROZEN PRECIP WILL OCCUR EVEN WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S.
THE FORECAST WILL INCLUDE WORDING FOR SLEET MAINLY FOR THE
COUNTIES FROM BURLESON TO HOUSTON.

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 06Z WHICH WILL BRING AN
END TO THE PRECIP CHANCES AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR SAT BUT STILL EXPECT A BRISK DAY WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER BUT NOT
MUCH. MORE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE IN STORE FOR MONDAY THROUGH
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

YESTERDAYS 12Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BUT THAT
HAS CHANGED. TODAYS 12Z MODEL RUNS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
ALL PAINT A DIFFERENT PICTURE FOR THE FORECAST WITH A FEW
SIMILARITIES. MAINLY...WARM ADVECTION STILL EXPECTED TO RAMP UP
SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT. WARM FRONT MAY
DEVELOP AND WORK INLAND MONDAY WITH SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS REACHING
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST MON INTO TUE. THE 12Z
GFS THEN BRINGS A SHALLOW COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP IN HELD UP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. JET
FLOW AT THIS TIME REMAINS RATHER ZONAL ACROSS THE PLAINS AND NOT
REALLY SUPPORTING A FRONTAL PUSH. THE GFS ALSO PUSHES THIS FRONT
THROUGH WHILE KEEPING SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW. AT THIS TIME...WILL
STICK MORE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE EVEN SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS 00Z GFS RUN. TEMPS REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUE BUT SLOWLY
COOL TEMPS WED INTO THU. THE 12Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN PUSH A FRONT
THROUGH THU WHICH THE GFS ALSO SUPPORTS. THIS FRONT HAS MORE
SUPPORT AT 850MB AND ALOFT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE AND THEN AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
WED/THU. THE FRONT MAY STILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO GET ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER THE FRONT AND WILL KEEP POPS GOING THROUGH THIS TIME.

[Yankeegirl]

This is going to be close...

Friday Night: A 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

[wall_cloud]

Well if GFS underestimated this cold front (which it obviously did) then we really need to keep an eye on the arctic air that will be coming down next week.

The GFS nearly always underestimates the strength of these fronts. That's what makes it so hard to follow, so when it is correct, the mets get lambasted for not using guidance. The ol' Catch 22.

[TxWxFrisco]

Well if GFS underestimated this cold front (which it obviously did) then we really need to keep an eye on the arctic air that will be coming down next week.

The GFS nearly always underestimates the strength of these fronts. That's what makes it so hard to follow, so when it is correct, the mets get lambasted for not using guidance. The ol' Catch 22.

Most of the mets in their discussions are going -5 below the guidance for that very reason... Hedging their bets based on past performance is probably a smart move...lol

[southerngale]

Winter precip ALMOST got a mention locally... (but alas, just a 90% chance of rain, again)


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
351 AM CST FRI JAN 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...GOOD ADVECTION OF PACIFIC MOISTURE HAS HELPED TO
MAINTAIN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE THEY HAVE REMAINED IN THE 40S. DRY
WEATHER PREVAILED WITH WITH NEAREST RAINFALL BETWEEN HOU AND SAT
AREAS AS OF 09Z. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER DETERIORATE
THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT AS 00Z NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MOVING DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS NW GULF THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL TREND GRIDS TO INCREASING POPS TO CATEGORICAL BETWEEN
00-06Z SATURDAY. WAS SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WINTRY MIXTURE BEFORE PRECIP SHUTS OF LATE TONIGHT. THICKNESS PROGS
DO SUPPORT THIS...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE
RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THEREFORE...NO MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP AT THIS
MOMENT. OVERALL COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECASTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
ALONG A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

[Portastorm]

Nothing too exciting here in Austin this morning ... no sleet ... just a cold rain. Temps holding in the mid 30s.

[jasons2k]

OH MY GOD! GRAB THE VIDEO CAMERA AND COOLER!!

There were two whole sleet pellets here this morning with the onset of the rain (evap. cooling) but now it's all rain.

[gboudx]

We have a Special Weather Statement regarding some wintry precip moving up from the Waco area. Temps are around 34, so unless we get some evaporative cooling, this won't stick around for long. If it happens at all. South of the metroplex now.

[PineyWoods]

Here in Tyler we are getting a light sleet and snow mix at 10:30am. Temps at 35° and Dew Point at 20°. Most of it is probably evaporating on the way down.

[JenBayles]

Keep it up in your neck of the woods Piney! I'm miserable here in Houston with this cold damp weather. Matter of fact, my rheumatiz could use some of the Recipe - medicinal, of course.

[gboudx]

Snow flurries(or pellets) in Richardson/Plano area near George Bush/Jupiter. Also, my wife said snow flurries out in Rockwall.

[southerngale]

While folks to our north are seeing a few flurries today and folks to our east are getting excited over a possible snowstorm, NWS LCH gives a glimmer of hope to some of us in SE TX / C LA who want to see a little winter precip.

Even IF any were to fall, no accumulation is expected. Nothing too exciting, but well, anyway...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1058 AM CST FRI JAN 18 2008

.UPDATE...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF...AND THE EFFECTS IT WILL BRING ON GULF WINDS
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING EVENT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAISED PRECIP CHANCES OVER SE TX FOR THE
REST OF THIS MORNING...WITH CURRENT FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT ON TRACK.

12Z NAM AND GFS RUNS INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF RA/IP MIXTURE
ACROSS THE INLAND SE TX/C LA ZONES (BETWEEN 09Z-15Z SAT) BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SAT. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME DUE TO SFC TEMPS BEING ABOVE FREEZING. MORE TO COME ON THIS
ISSUE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WE MULL OVER THE CURRENT TRENDS,
FORECASTED THICKNESS CHARTS, SOUNDINGS, ETC. IT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDANT UPON HOW MUCH THE GULF LOW DEEPENS, THUS AFFECTING HOW
MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY INFILTRATE THE INLAND SE TX AND C LA
ZONES BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS.

DML

[Yankeegirl]

All I have to say is that its COLD out here!!! I can handle the cold, but I hate the cold with rain... If its going to be cold and wet, it needs to be sleeting or snowing... at least keep it interesting!!

[southerngale]

I also have doubts that we'll hit our high of 50F today. I'm surrounded by weather stations ranging from 39F to 43F at the moment.... 43F being the highest reading in Beaumont... most of them lower.

So much precip out there.... such a shame to waste it on rain. Hopefully, they'll be off with the temps tonight as well. I'd love to see that 90% chance of rain fall in the form of snow. *pinches self* I know, I know... it ain't gonna happen!

[Yankeegirl]

I totally agree with you Kelly.... It was 43 when i got home from work today around 1 and now its down to 40 with a light rain... I would like some "blue/purple" stuff on the radar....

[southerngale]

In the spirit of keeping my neighbors informed of this winter weather non-event...

They've lowered my overnight low a little to 36F, changed tonight's 90% chance of precip to 100% and added 80% for tomorrow, but the precip is still expected to fall in the form of rain. Not surprised at all, but *sigh* anyway. Low tomorrow night forecast to be 28F, but should be cleared out by then.

Here's the latest NWS LCH AFD regarding the slight chance of any winter precip:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
357 PM CST FRI JAN 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TONIGHT IS THE STRENGTHENING
LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...AND THE EFFECTS IT WILL BRING ON
GULF WINDS OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING EVENT
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUSLY INHERITED 100% SEEMED
REASONABLE FOR ENTIRE AREA.

12Z NAM AND GFS RUNS INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF RA/IP MIXTURE
ACROSS THE INLAND SE TX/C LA ZONES (BETWEEN 09Z-15Z SAT) BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SAT. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME DUE TO SFC TEMPS BEING ABOVE FREEZING. AFTER MULLING OVER THE
CURRENT TRENDS, FORECASTED THICKNESS CHARTS, SOUNDINGS, ETC...THIS
REASONING CONTINUE. IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT UPON HOW MUCH THE
GULF LOW DEEPENS, THUS AFFECTING HOW MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY
INFILTRATE THE INLAND SE TX AND C LA ZONES BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS.

CLEARING SKIES WILL COMMENCE BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THIS COUPLED WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING...WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 20S ACROSS THE INLAND ZONES...TO NEAR 30 NEAR THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE JUST AS UNSETTLED AS THIS WEEK...AND
CONTINUED COOL...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
ALLOW FOR PERIODIC COLD AIR INTRUSIONS...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
SENDING MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION.

DML

[JenBayles]

DISGUSTING! 40 degrees and pounding down rain under the Bear Creek Dome right now. The only redeeming factor is we don't have to leave the house, we have a stock of firewood laid in, and 2 big dogs to watch TV with tonight.

[PineyWoods]

We keep getting light snow showers, flakes are bigger than they were this am. Looking at the radar looks like we might get a few more flakes this evening before it ends. Temps are running about 33° right now. Don't think we'll see any stick, but it sure looks pretty.

[Diva]

Yep, my friend called from Tyler and said it was snowing BIGTIME up there. I told her I was hanging up on her....
Orange NEVER gets any fun!!