Winter Weather in the deep south thread

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Extremeweatherguy
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Re:

#361 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Jan 18, 2008 10:51 am

Marilyn wrote:On the models what is that red /orange line is that the cold air line? i wonder what south of Charlotte will get . We are 2 hours southeast of Charlotte. always right on the line of getting a pretty good snow.I would be happy with an inch.
The orange line is the 10C 850mb line (meaning 50F). That is not the line you want to look at for snow. You want to look at the first blue line behind the orange line. That line is the line that represents air 32F or colder at the 850mb level. Once the 850mb level (5000 above us) gets to that point, then if the surface is cold enough, the precipitation will likely fall in the form of snow. In the case of the 12z NAM, it brings that blue line all the way to nearly the coast of SC and NC before the precipitation begins to end. So if this model were to be correct, then you would most likely receive some snow in your location.
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#362 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Jan 18, 2008 10:55 am

12z GFS...

Image
Image
Image
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Re: Snow in the deep south this weekend!

#363 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 18, 2008 10:58 am

12z GFS seems to have moisture more northward...

Feeling a little better about the chances now, but these things can still bust at the last minute.
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#364 Postby Marilyn » Fri Jan 18, 2008 11:04 am

Thank you Extremeweather . :D
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#365 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Jan 18, 2008 11:32 am

Ok, well I am heading off to the airport now to get on a flight to Atlanta. Hopefully once I get there (~4pm EDT), we will have plenty of new information available and will be able to determine just how bad this storm will really be. I would also assume that the Peachtree city NWS will finally issue some kind of advisory or watch/warning later this afternoon too, so I cannot wait for that. It will be interesting to see the midday forecast updates across the southeast and hear what some of the NWS offices believe snow totals could be.
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#366 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 18, 2008 11:37 am

Image

Beginning to take shape.
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#367 Postby LindaUpNorth » Fri Jan 18, 2008 12:11 pm

Image
I've always had a facination with the weather since I was a kid. When the Weather Channel came out, I used to watch it almost 24-7! Then I got a computer & discovered weather forums. Whoo-hoo! I would get sooo jealous of the members posting in these forums, but alas I had very little technical knowledge & didn't think I would have anything to add to the discussions.

Today I changed my mind. I wanted sooo much to join in the excitement over the possibility of a measureable amount of snow in areas that normally don't see it. Yes, I'm from the north & HATE snow, but when I travel down south I'm so facinated with everything I see that we don't have up here. Such as palm trees, white sandy beaches, etc. So I can FEEL the excitement you all have & want to cheer the snow on with you!

Maybe you'll enjoy the brief commercial interruptions from time to time in between all the technical talk.

Meanwhile, I'm sending a little something your way!

Image
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Re: Snow in the deep south this weekend!

#368 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jan 18, 2008 12:29 pm

Well since its a 3 day weekend and I dont have class til Tuesday I made a decision to visit my friend in Auburn this weekend...so I will see some snow and Ill take pics!!! IM SO EXCITED, I havnt seen snow in a while!
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Re: Snow in the deep south this weekend!

#369 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 18, 2008 1:13 pm

Birmingham raising snow totals! WOOHOO!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1211 PM CST FRI JAN 18 2008

...SNOW EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA...

.THE PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR A POSSIBLE SNOW STORM IN THE DEEP
SOUTH. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE COAST
ON SATURDAY...SPREADING WIDESPREAD MOISTURE INTO ALABAMA. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR RACING SOUTHWARD TO MEET THE DEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION...SNOW IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR A PORTION
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.


ALZ019-021>038-190615-
/O.CON.KBMX.WS.A.0001.080119T1000Z-080120T0200Z/
CALHOUN-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANNISTON...HEFLIN...CARROLLTON...
TUSCALOOSA...BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...
ALABASTER...PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...
ROANOKE...LIVINGSTON...EUTAW...GREENSBORO...MOUNDVILLE...MARION...
CENTREVILLE...CLANTON...ROCKFORD...ALEXANDER CITY...DADEVILLE...
VALLEY...LANETT...LAFAYETTE
1211 PM CST FRI JAN 18 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION...PREDOMINATELY SNOW...IS EXPECTED TO FALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...THE
AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS IN A BAND
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE BETWEEN INTERSTATE 20 AND US ROUTE
80. LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW...ROUGHLY 1 TO 2 INCHES...IS FORECAST
JUST NORTH AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BAND.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...AS THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. STAY ADVISED AS WE WILL LIKELY BE UPDATING AND
AND REVISING THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DEVELOPS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1211 PM CST FRI JAN 18 2008

...SNOW EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA...

.THE PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR A POSSIBLE SNOW STORM IN THE DEEP
SOUTH. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE COAST
ON SATURDAY...SPREADING WIDESPREAD MOISTURE INTO ALABAMA. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR RACING SOUTHWARD TO MEET THE DEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION...SNOW IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR A PORTION
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.


ALZ039>048-190615-
/O.EXB.KBMX.WS.A.0001.080119T1200Z-080120T0200Z/
MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-
LEE-RUSSELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DEMOPOLIS...LINDEN...SELMA...
PRATTVILLE...FORT DEPOSIT...HAYNEVILLE...WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...
MONTGOMERY...TUSKEGEE...UNION SPRINGS...AUBURN...OPELIKA...
PHENIX CITY
1211 PM CST FRI JAN 18 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MIXED WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY...
LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WHILE THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
NORTH OF THE CITIES OF SELMA...MONTGOMERY...AND AUBURN...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THIS HEAVY SNOW AXIS COULD SET UP FARTHER SOUTH.
THEREFORE...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
IF THE HEAVIER SNOW DOES END UP BEING FARTHER SOUTH...THESE CITIES
COULD GET 2 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
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#370 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Fri Jan 18, 2008 2:23 pm

I saw the SREF model mentioned in one of the discussions last night. It's fun to play with. If the 3-hr max snowfall frames were to come true, I-85 would be a fun place to be between Montgomery and Atlanta.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fram ... 2008011809
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Re: Snow in the deep south this weekend!

#371 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 18, 2008 2:52 pm

I love this map! I'm in the bullseye! :D

Image
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Re: Snow in the deep south this weekend!

#372 Postby grangdm » Fri Jan 18, 2008 3:14 pm

Me, too, Brent! I don't expect to get much sleep tonight as I monitor this storm. :P
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Re: Snow in the deep south this weekend!

#373 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 18, 2008 3:17 pm

WOW! Please let this verify!!!!!

Image
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Re: Snow in the deep south this weekend!

#374 Postby rsvh2000 » Fri Jan 18, 2008 3:22 pm

The way I read that last NAM gives hope for central SC.....NWS now calling for possibility of rain/snow mix. At noon it was still just a cold rain. keeping my fingers crossed....
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#375 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Jan 18, 2008 3:27 pm

I like that model forecast above...I just ask one thing. Nudge that first blue line (the 0*C one) either on the coast or just off of it, let the cold air come...PLEASE?! :lol:
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#376 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 18, 2008 3:33 pm

Latest:

Image
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Re:

#377 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Jan 18, 2008 3:38 pm

brunota2003 wrote:I like that model forecast above...I just ask one thing. Nudge that first blue line (the 0*C one) either on the coast or just off of it, let the cold air come...PLEASE?! :lol:


i second that, but Ill enhance it and bring the 0 C line to Florida :P
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#378 Postby Byrd » Fri Jan 18, 2008 3:40 pm

Wow! Can this really hapopen?

I don't remember a snow forecast for Marengo County, Alabama, since March 1993!

Byrd
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#379 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 18, 2008 3:47 pm

Station 42362 - Brutus - Green Canyon 158
Link: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42362

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.06 in
Water Temperature (WTMP): 71.8 °F

So far the highest measured sustained winds are 23.3 knots.
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#380 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Jan 18, 2008 3:52 pm

Winter Storm Watch Issued:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
349 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2008


NCZ045-046-080-091-093-190900-
/O.NEW.KMHX.WS.A.0001.080120T0000Z-080120T0900Z/
WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-BEAUFORT-LENOIR-CRAVEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLYMOUTH...COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...
RIVER ROAD...KINSTON...NEW BERN...HAVELOCK
349 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR WASHINGTON...TYRRELL...BEAUFORT...LENOIR...AND
CRAVEN COUNTIES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT...WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW FORMS OFF THE COAST
SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION AND CAUSE THE RAIN TO MIX WITH
SNOW LATE SATURDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGEOVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
BEFORE ENDING LATE SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.

A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION OF A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON
GRASSY SURFACES SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF A KINSTON...TO
NEW BERN...TO COLUMBIA LINE. AREAS TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO RECEIVE A TRACE OF SNOWFALL. IF WEATHER CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED FOR THIS
AREA EARLY SATURDAY.


A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$


Winter Storm WARNINGS Issued just now as well:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
349 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2008


NCZ029-044-079-190900-
/O.NEW.KMHX.WS.W.0001.080119T2100Z-080120T0900Z/
MARTIN-PITT-GREENE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLIAMSTON...ROBERSONVILLE...
GREENVILLE...SNOW HILL...HOOKERTON
349 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR MARTIN...PITT...AND GREENE COUNTIES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO
4 AM EST SUNDAY.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT...WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW FORMS OFF THE COAST
SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION AND CAUSE THE RAIN TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER 4 PM
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. PERIODS OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THROUGH
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$
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