Winter Weather in the deep south thread

Website · #581 Postby **Brent** » Sun Jan 20, 2008 5:56 pm

Two more pictures I just took of the dusting left after a full day of sun. This area is on the north side of the house mostly sheltered from the sun however.

Cristina · #582 Postby **Cristina** » Sun Jan 20, 2008 7:38 pm

Brent wrote:Two more pictures I just took of the dusting left after a full day of sun. This area is on the north side of the house mostly sheltered from the sun however.

How do you post a pic here? I tried doing it but was unsuccessful... thanks!

cag1953 · #583 Postby **cag1953** » Sun Jan 20, 2008 8:03 pm

Opal storm wrote:TimNms those are some amazing pics. Last time I've seen snow accumulation like that was when I was just a little kid living in Michigan. Awesome pics.

Just curious,opal storm,where in Michigan did you move from-that's where we're from.

Website · #584 Postby **Brent** » Sun Jan 20, 2008 8:57 pm

Cristina wrote:
Brent wrote:Two more pictures I just took of the dusting left after a full day of sun. This area is on the north side of the house mostly sheltered from the sun however.

How do you post a pic here? I tried doing it but was unsuccessful... thanks!

I use Photobucket. Once you save the file to your computer, you are able to upload it that way. You can get a free account.

timNms · #585 Postby **timNms** » Sun Jan 20, 2008 9:41 pm

Brent wrote:
Cristina wrote:
Brent wrote:Two more pictures I just took of the dusting left after a full day of sun. This area is on the north side of the house mostly sheltered from the sun however.

How do you post a pic here? I tried doing it but was unsuccessful... thanks!

I use Photobucket. Once you save the file to your computer, you are able to upload it that way. You can get a free account.

Looks great, Brent. Wish I had a USB cable to connect to my cell phone so I could transfer my cell pics to my puter. I took several pics today of the snow we have left on the ground. There was at least 3 inches on my car at 3:30 this afternoon when my son and I had to go to the store. Didn't lose any of it either LOL. In some places around my house where we didn't track thru the snow or my son didn't ride thru on his 4-wheeler, there is still a good 2 inches of snow. The top of my house has a couple of inches on it as well. I'm sure it'll all go bye-bye tomorrow as we're supposed to be in the low fifties. I don't think it got much warmer than 36 today. When I went to the store my car said 35. It's about 28 now.

HarlequinBoy · #586 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Mon Jan 21, 2008 4:20 pm

Doesn't look like anything big for Memphis and the 'burbs, although there is a WWA in effect. We'll see.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
301 PM CST MON JAN 21 2008

...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH 9 AM TUESDAY FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF A FOREST CITY
ARKANSAS TO BELMONT MISSISSIPPI LINE...

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AREAS OF RAIN INTO THE
MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. THIS RAIN WILL FALL INTO VERY DRY AIR WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE AND COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND WILL SPREAD EAST...PERHAPS MIXING WITH SLEET AND LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN WEST TENNESSEE. BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...THE
CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SPREAD
SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER WEST TENNESSEE...INTO NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF ARKANSAS WEST OF MEMPHIS.

TEMPERATURES MAY STAY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING AROUND SUNRISE IN
THE URBAN AREAS OF MEMPHIS...RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN PREDOMINATING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS OF THE MEMPHIS METRO...INCLUDING
SHELBY... DESOTO AND CRITTENDEN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS
COOL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING COMMUTE TIME.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO TWO TENTHS ON AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

ROADS AND ESPECIALLY BRIDGES MAY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS WHERE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION OCCURS.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>006-009-
TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-220500-
/O.NEW.KMEG.WW.Y.0001.080122T0600Z-080122T1500Z/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-
CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-DESOTO-MARSHALL-
BENTON MS-TIPPAH-ALCORN-TISHOMINGO-PRENTISS-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY-
HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-LAUDERDALE-TIPTON-HAYWOOD-CROCKETT-
MADISON-CHESTER-HENDERSON-DECATUR-SHELBY-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-
HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...JONESBORO...
HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...FORREST CITY...
KENNETT...CARUTHERSVILLE...SOUTHAVEN...OLIVE BRANCH...CORINTH...
IUKA...BOONEVILLE...UNION CITY...MARTIN...DRESDEN...PARIS...
DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...MILAN...HUNTINGDON...COVINGTON...JACKSON...
LEXINGTON...BARTLETT...GERMANTOWN...COLLIERVILLE...MEMPHIS...
MILLINGTON...SOMERVILLE...BOLIVAR...SAVANNAH
301 PM CST MON JAN 21 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM CST TUESDAY.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND WILL SPREAD EAST...PERHAPS MIXING WITH SLEET AND LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN WEST TENNESSEE. BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...THE
CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SPREAD
SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER WEST TENNESSEE...INTO NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF ARKANSAS WEST OF MEMPHIS.

THE CITY OF MEMPHIS MAY STAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN AS THE PREDOMINATE
PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS OF THE MEMPHIS METRO
WILL LIKELY BE COLDER...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING
PRECIPITATION TOWARD MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO TWO TENTHS
ON AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY AREA.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

Extremeweatherguy · #587 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jan 21, 2008 8:04 pm

HarlequinBoy · #588 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Tue Jan 22, 2008 1:24 am

Nice pics!

Hmm, we've dropped to 36 with rain. I think we'll bottom out at 34 or so, so no icing. Interestingly we're cooler than quite a few spots up to the north of Memphis.

#589 Postby **Lowpressure** » Tue Jan 22, 2008 8:13 am

Light freezing drizzle/rain here in Charlotte 28.3 degrees. Ice in spots several accidents already. NWS had this one exactly right. Saying maybe some snow early Saturday morning.

tnvalleyman · #590 Postby **tnvalleyman** » Tue Jan 22, 2008 10:29 am

We are getting some freezing rain/sleet in chattanooga tn in mountain areas.

Website · #591 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jan 22, 2008 11:07 pm

Anyone notice what the GFS and NAM show tomorrow night and early Thursday? Some light precip with the freezing line VERY nearby over Central and South AL/GA.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036m.gif

HarlequinBoy · #592 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Wed Jan 23, 2008 10:09 pm

Guess there's no use for a new thread, but a wintry mix looks like a decent possibility from Dallas to Memphis on Thursday into Friday.

Even areas south of here have a pretty good shot according to Jackson's evening update.

AND FOR THE NEXT ROUND...MODELS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BY LATE FRIDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE NATION
WHILE GULF MOISTURE SURGES NWD ABOVE THE COLD DENSE NEAR-SFC
AIRMASS. FROM A SYNOPTIC VIEW-POINT... THIS IS A CLASSIC PATTERN FOR
GETTING FREEZING RAIN OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SINCE
THE COLD DENSE AIR WILL BE TOUGH TO MOVE OUT BY THE MODEST WARM
ADVECTION THAT IS FORECAST.

LOOKING AT MODEL DETAILS...THERMAL FIELD OUTPUT FROM THE GFS/NAM/
UKMET INDICATE THAT A MIXTURE OF FZRA/IP IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE IF NOT
PROBABLE FROM 18Z FRIDAY TO AFTER 06Z SATURDAY ALONG THE HWY 82
CORRIDOR. A FORECASTED WARM NOSE ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
SNOW...AND NEAR-SFC WET-BULB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW 32 DEG F
SUGGESTING EITHER SLEET/FZRA COULD OCCUR. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
MODELS CONCERNING HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AND THIS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN A BIQ QUESTION MARK AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...BUT THERMALLY
SPEAKING...CONFIDENCE IS ENOUGH TO GO AHEAD AND PAINT SOME POTENTIAL
IN THE GRIDS. DEPENDING ON HOW 00Z GUIDANCE LOOKS...MAY UPDATE THE
HWO AND ISSUE AN SPS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL SUGGESTING THAT AREAS
ALONG THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST AS IT
DOESN`T TAKE MUCH GLAZE TO CREATE HAVOC IN THE SE.

Ed Mahmoud · #593 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Wed Jan 23, 2008 10:16 pm

Semi-OT, but US 82 runs from near my companies oil field Southwest of Wichita Falls to near my companies oil field near Magnolia, AR.

By 'my' company, I am an employee, I don't own it.

#594 Postby **MississippiHurricane** » Thu Jan 24, 2008 11:17 am

I got SOME sleet this morning and the forecast for friday night calls for a 50% chance of freezing rain here in the Jackson Metro area *precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible*..........will keep a watch on this and give updates as needed.

HarlequinBoy · #595 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:00 pm

...WIDESPREAD SLEET AND AREAS OF ICING POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY WILL BRING PRECIPITATION INTO A CHILLY AIRMASS BY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SLEET...AND THEN GRADUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO MOSTLY RAIN AS FRIDAY NIGHT WEARS ON. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA SINCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AND
PRECIPITATION NOT HEAVY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD NEAR FREEZING
OVER LOCATIONS IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA NORTHWEST OF A GRENADA...TO YAZOO CITY TO
RAYVILLE LINE. THIS COULD ALLOW ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN
A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THOSE WITH INTERESTS IN
THE REGION SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS.

Looks like locally it will be cold enough for mostly sleet to fall.. but precip chances are kind of low at the time.

Website · #596 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jan 24, 2008 6:04 pm

The Blizzard of 2008!

Yes, I'm bored.

timNms · #597 Postby **timNms** » Thu Jan 24, 2008 8:25 pm

Brent wrote:The Blizzard of 2008!

Yes, I'm bored.

Whoa, Brent. Is that one of the current models for tomorrow's weather?

HarlequinBoy · #598 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Fri Jan 25, 2008 12:05 am

Jackson is waaay more optimistic than Memphis for the Delta. This is our best shot so far this winter for any wintry precip though.

UPDATE: HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW AS
FURTHER INVESTIGATION OF LATEST SREF/NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
REQUIRED QPF FOR REACHING WARNING CRITERIA IS VERY QUESTIONABLE IN
THE UPPER DELTA AREA. HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THAT A SMALL AREA WILL
GET JUST THE RIGHT COMBINATION OF COLD/MOISTURE TO GET SIGNIFICANT
ICING...IT IS JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY WHERE AT THIS POINT. WILL
REISSUE THE SPS AND INCREASE THE WORDING SOME AS WE ARE GETTING TO
NEAR THE ONSET OF THE EVENT. OTHERWISE...MAY NEED TO BRING PRECIP
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ABOUT 3 HRS EARLIER IN THE
FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. ALSO...TEMPS HAVE COOLED AT A
QUICKER PACE THAN EXPECTED AND ADJUST THEM IN THE GRIDS. THE UPDATED
AVIATION DISCUSSION IS BELOW. /EC/

PREVIOUS UPDATE: WE ARE GETTING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR ICING OVER PORTIONS OF THE DELTA REGION FRIDAY AS LIGHT RAIN IS
INCREASING QUICKLY ACROSS ERN TX INTO SW LA. IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND
00Z GUIDANCE LOOKS QUICKER...THEN A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED OVER OVER PORTIONS OF NE LA/SE AR AND WRN MS LATER THIS
EVNG. CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT AT MONTICELLO AR IS 31/16 WITH SIMILAR
AIR ADVECTING SWD THROUGH DELTA...SOMEWHAT OF FUNNELING EFFECT IS
BEING NOTED NOT SURPRISINGLY. 00Z TEMP/DP AT MEMPHIS IS 24/9...BUT
NOT EXPECTING AIR QUITE THIS COLD TO BE ADVECTED IN WHEN PRECIP
MOVES FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN UP.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS...ESPECIALLY PRECIP
TREND. EXPECT THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS SLEET IN AREA OF CONCERN
WITH A TRANSITION TO FZRA LIKELY AS WARMING TAKES PLACE IN MID
LEVELS WHILE BL COOLS TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING DUE TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. JUST WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN IS A CHALLENGE. THE
12Z ECMWF WAS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH MOVING MEASURABLE QPF INTO WRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...HAVING INTO WRN MS BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS MAY BE
TOO QUICK GIVEN DRYNESS OF SUB-CLOUD LAYER...BUT WE COULD CERTAINLY
SEE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION BY AROUND NOON IN THE DELTA
REGION. /EC/

HarlequinBoy · #599 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Fri Jan 25, 2008 12:09 am

Though Memphis is trending towards an icy scenario. Too bad it's not snow.

LOOKING OVER THE 00Z NAM SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DATA CONTINUES TO POUR IN...HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT 950 MB LAYER WILL REMAIN VERY
DRY...WHILE THE COLUMN IS SATURATED FROM APPROX 850 MB TO 650 MB.
ISENTROPIC SURFACES INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND UPGLIDE TO
PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO MOISTEN THE LOWER DRY LEVEL AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO LOWER TO
NEAR THE WET BULB. THIS WOULD PUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. POSSIBLE PROBLEMS WILL EXIST FROM ALONG I-40 TO MEMPHIS
TO OXFORD TO COFFEEVILLE WHERE SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD
OCCUR. FARTHER EAST...MOISTURE LOOKS TOO SHALLOW BUT THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED BY LATER SHIFTS.

WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF POSSIBLE FROZEN PRECIPITATION IN AN UPDATE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WHICH WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

Website · #600 Postby **Brent** » Fri Jan 25, 2008 12:49 am

timNms wrote:
Brent wrote:The Blizzard of 2008!

Yes, I'm bored.

Whoa, Brent. Is that one of the current models for tomorrow's weather?

It's for February 8th... hence my

No if that was for tomorrow I'd be :eek:

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