![Image](http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_pages/thumbs/SHEM/tc08/98S.INVEST/atlantic/tropics/ir/geo/ir/geo/1km_bw/20080123.2130.meteo7.x.ir1km_bw.98SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-67S-665E.100pc.jpg)
![Image](http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_pages/thumbs/SHEM/tc08/98S.INVEST/atlantic/tropics/geo/ir/1km/20080123.2130.meteo7.x.ir1km.98SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-67S-665E.100pc.jpg)
![Image](http://www.mtotec.com/images/sat.png)
A lot of unorganized convection in the SIO.
Moderator: S2k Moderators
HURAKAN wrote:
WTXS32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/262051Z JAN 08//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 12.7S 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 62.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 13.6S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.3S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.8S 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.3S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM WEST-
SOUTWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WITH A CIRRUS CANOPY. THE CANOPY HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND HAS LOWERED THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR VALUES. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TC CAUSING A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 12.
FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW TC 14S TO
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHENING TROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC
AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 262051Z JAN
08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 262100) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z
AND 280300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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