This REALLY, REALLY bites!

[azsnowman]

We need all the moisture we can get, there's no denying that BUT...1-3" of RAIN on top of a 42"+ snowpack above 7500' in elevation (I still have 13" on the ground). This ain't good, NOT GOOD at ALL On a brighter note, the EPAC moisture train just keeps going and going and going and going...so much La Nina

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS65 KFGZ 252240 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 341 PM MST FRI JAN 25 2008 .SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ON SUNDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 7500 AND 8000 FEET BUT LOWER TO AROUND 5500 FEET ON MONDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AFTER DARK. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER ARIZONA TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A MAJOR PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW MAY FALL AT THE 7000 FOOT LEVEL ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SNOW LEVELS RISE TO BETWEEN 7500 AND 8000 FEET DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA WITH 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. BECAUSE OF AMPLE SNOWPACK AND FROZEN GROUND BELOW 6500 FEET LEVEL THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF RUNOFF WITH AREA RESERVOIRS...CREEKS AND STREAMS FILLING RAPIDLY. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS (8500 FEET AND ABOVE) COULD SEE OVER TWO FEET OF SNOW. . ON MONDAY...THE STORM CENTER MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA WITH MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND THE 5500 FOOT LEVEL. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING SO SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS NOT. ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. INTO THURSDAY.

[azsnowman]

OK folks, a little prayer would be appreciated here...heavy rain on top of 36-42" snowpack just above the 7500' level could spell a MAJOR disaster coming my way in less than 24 hours I've got sand bags ready (spent all afternoon making them at the city roads yard) and praying like CRAZY that the cold air mass will arrive before this tropical moisture hits!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP A DEEP AND WARM SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS AND PUSH IT NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA. GFS GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING SNOW LEVELS OF 7500 FEET AND HIGHER AS A RESULT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL A TRICKY SNOW LEVEL FORECAST DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER NEAR THE SFC...AS WELL AS SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING THAT MAY TAKE PLACE EARLY ON IN THE STORM DUE TO CURRENT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. THE PRECIPITATION COULD START AS SNOW AS LOW AS 6500 FEET SUNDAY WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG 700MB WINDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING EXCELLENT OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. WITH THESE INGREDIENTS ACTING IN UNISON... WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH SUNDAY THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A CRITICAL FACTOR FOR THE FLOOD POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ABOVE 6500 FEET...AND THOSE AREAS THAT DEPEND ON RUNOFF FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR NOW...WILL INCLUDE AREAS BELOW 7000 FEET IN THIS WATCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH TO 5500 TO 6500 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE STATE. LATEST FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...AND THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS. A SNOW ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED BY LATER SHIFTS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM COULD BE A VERY COLD ONE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED

[JonathanBelles]

I hope everything works out for you!

[RattleMan]

Waiting for the impact here in Tempe.



Here it comes!

[Dionne]

Correct me if I'm wrong......your the AZsnowman....aka midnightrider. Your also in law enforcement which also means public safety. Am I right?

Prepare for a ride. Get everything you will need in rescue op's. Get your flood elevations down.....secure a viable rescue shelter.

FYI the USDA has an avalanche handbook. Wet snow can slide on a 5% slope. Especially with the conditions in your post.

[azsnowman]

Correct me if I'm wrong......your the AZsnowman....aka midnightrider. Your also in law enforcement which also means public safety. Am I right?

Prepare for a ride. Get everything you will need in rescue op's. Get your flood elevations down.....secure a viable rescue shelter.

FYI the USDA has an avalanche handbook. Wet snow can slide on a 5% slope. Especially with the conditions in your post.

You are correct ALL the way around! Yes, it's me, AKA azsnowman. Yes, I'm in law enforcement...and yes, the whole dept. received a page earlier putting the WHOLE dept. on standby!

Now pardon the French but S.O.B.....this is BAD folks, REALLY, REALLY bad!

Starting to get a little concerned about this system....especially with the part about "ice and snow blocking drainage areas!" That's ME...

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

Flash Flood Watch

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1145 AM MST SAT JAN 26 2008

AZZ017-270445-
/O.EXA.KFGZ.FF.A.0001.080127T1900Z-080128T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WHITE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP
1145 AM MST SAT JAN 26 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING..

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF NORTHEAST ARIZONA..
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREA...WHITE MOUNTAINS.

* FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

* A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ALONG SOUTHWEST FACING TERRAIN.

* MOST OF THE WATCH AREA CURRENTLY HAS A SUBSTANTIAL SNOW PACK.
THIS MAY LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF DUE TO MELTING SNOW COMBINED
WITH HEAVY RAIN. SOME NORMAL DRAINAGE AREAS COULD ALSO BE
BLOCKED BY ICE AND SNOW...LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER...ESPECIALLY IN MORE URBANIZED AREAS.

[dizzyfish]

Dang! Stay safe please....

Please let us know if we can help in any way.

(I'm in Florida - I can send warm wishes your way (but that probably wouldn't be a good thing!))

[noelphx]

Keeping you in my thoughts. Looking forward to some more rain here in Prescott Valley though and if we are lucky a lil more snow. After living in Phoenix all my life its been nice to experience the 4 seasons. Too bad I'll be going back there in the next few months.

[azsnowman]

WELL...."it's HERE!" Starting to POUR as I post this, this is going to be a VERY interesting day to say the least!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
551 AM MST SUN JAN 27 2008

AZZ004>018-037>040-280700-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
551 AM MST SUN JAN 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO A WARM SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS
WHICH WILL LEAD TO SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7500 TO 8000 FEET INITIALLY
WITH THIS STORM TODAY...ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
TO AROUND 7000 FEET THIS MORNING. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE KAIBAB PLATEAU THROUGH MONDAY.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
INCLUDING NORTHERN GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES...AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG
SOUTHWEST FACING TERRAIN. PEOPLE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE URGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SITUATION.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION AND ALSO CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
LOWER TO 5500 TO 6500 FEET OVER COCONINO AND YAVAPAI
COUNTIES...AND 7500 FEET FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS WHERE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A PERIOD OF SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM NORTHWARD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT..

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

[azsnowman]

noelphx...I see by the radar you folks in Prescott, Prescott Valley are currently getting SLAMMED! Just checked the radar and the heavist precip at the moment (0649 MST) is centered right over the PV area! Gonna be a very interesting day!

[noelphx]

AZsnowman... its been raining here for a while. I didnt notice anything before 5am but my wife swears it was raining at 3am. Ever since then a good steady rain. The rain gauge near my house about 3/4 a miles away says that we have only got .28 inches so far though. Whatever we get we need it here so well take it. Be safe. Hows it going for you now? Is it currently rain or snow??

[azsnowman]

noelphx...Heavy rain, switching over to heavy snow, then back to rain...make up my MIND! It sounds like this COULD possibily turn over to a HEAVY snow event at anytime!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS BAND OF SUB TROPICAL PRECIPITATION IS MOVING IN AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS LOW IS NOW MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS ARIZONA AND WILL DECREASE SNOW LEVELS TONIGHT AS THE COLD CORE OF THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE STATE. BASED ON SPOTTER OBSERVATIONS...SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND THE 6500 TO 7000 FOOT LEVEL OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA WITH HIGHER SNOW LEVELS 7000 TO 8000 FEET IN THE NORTHEAST. THE BIG QUESTION TODAY WILL BE HOW THE SNOW LEVELS CHANGE AS WE APPROACH MID DAY. A FEW HUNDRED FEET WILL MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS IN COMMUNITIES AROUND THE 6500 TO 7500 FOOT LEVEL.

[noelphx]

They just issued a flood warning for the Agua Fria near Rock SPrings....

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ARIZONA..

AGUA FRIA RIVER ABOVE ROCK SPRINGS AFFECTING MARICOPA AND YAVAPAI
COUNTIES
A VERY MOIST STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA HAS RESULTED
IN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. THROUGH NOON...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE AGUA FRIA DRAINAGE BASIN ABOVE ROCK SPRINGS HAVE RANGED
FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

They are still predicting it will turn to snow in the morning tomorrow. It would be nice if it started earlier but what can we do. Stay safe there.

[azsnowman]

noelphx.....read my energizer bunny thread, there is ONE system after ANOTHER for the ENTIRE upcoming week Unreal, absouletly UNREAL, it's like 1996 ALL over!!

[azsnowman]

Just checked the rain gauge, there's a brief break in the downpour...I'm at 1.32" thus far and looking at the radar, it's FAR from over! Where's the COLD air, this needs to change over and QUICK!

[noelphx]

Sometimes it sucks living on the opposite side of the hill lol. PV has only had between .55-.67 inches of rain. damn rain shadow effect sometimes. lol but most of prescott has had near 2 inches. which is good i just like the rain lol. they say no snow here in PV tonight but maybe tomorrow but in Prescott which is actually only 100 ft higher than my house is probably gonna ge snow. so we are on the edge yet again lol. I hope it turns to snow for you soon!!

[noelphx]

it is raining the hardest right now than it has all day

[noelphx]

Dang..

Flash Flood Watch in effect through late tonight... moderate to intermittent heavy rain continues to fall over Yavapai County. As a result...the river gage at Granite creek in Prescott is showing a rise to 9.5 feet as of 630 PM MST... with the bankfull stage at 11 feet. With the additional rainfall and subsequent runoff...Granite creek will see continued rises through the evening. Residents along Granite creek should continue to monitor this situation and take action should the situation warrant.

[azsnowman]

I can't reach my rain gauge due to it's location on the other side of the creek...my best guess is SOMEWHERE between 4.0" and 4.5" of rain...imagine that falling on top of 42" of snowpack. I can honestly say, I am truly concerned!

[noelphx]

nothing like sleet at 40mph winds lol ouch my face lol