TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[Ed Mahmoud]

Think I've given up on winter precip in Austin. Had a few chances this past week, but nothing.

Don't give up yet, we have 4-5 more weeks of possible winter action. But if we get into the third week of February and nothing has happened ... well, in my opinion, it'll be time to bag it and welcome in "spring."

I don't know about winter precip, but 2 or 3 years back had a freeze here in Houston, near mid-March.


And it snowed on Easter last year (or the year before) in Waco.

[gboudx]

WOW - yeah ice isn't fun - but this turned-out to be a big dud for my friends/family up in DFW.

I'll take this kind of dud any day of the week. But one of those who hates freezing rain. From the DFW AFD, the temps yesterday were too warm, therefore, the evaporative cooling couldn't get down to the 32 degree point at the surface. It was close though. My car temp showed 33 the whole way in.

Today is turning out to be just a cold, rainy day. Which is good because we need the rain. It's been dry.

[jasons2k]

Wow, you're right. And North MS looks to under the gun too with some significant icing.

[southerngale]

Brrr.... I'm not sure we'll reach our high of 44F today. The overnight "high" was 41F and it was 40F at 5am this morning. Now it's 34F and 35F at the two nearest weather stations to me!
It's even 39F down at the airport. If the temperature doesn't rise much today, this could end up being our coldest day of the season. And since we're obviously never going to get any snow, all this rain just needs to go! Everything is saturated, muddy, gross. Bring back the sun!





Edit: A little less than an hour later and it's the same at the weather stations nearest me, but has dropped to 38F down at the airport. And of course, it's still raining.

Ah, just saw this from NWS LCH at 9:47 this morning:
TEMPS COULD BE INTERESTING TODAY AS BOTH KLCH & KBPT HAVE SHOWN
SOME WET BULBING EFFECTS PAST FEW HOURS WITH TEMPS DROPPING FROM
THE LOWER 40S BACK TO THE UPPER 30S. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE MAX TEMPS
ALONE AND JUST CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE THEY NEED TO BE LOWERED
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

[lrak]

No kidding, I'm ready for some sunshine. Corpus has been under 50F for almost two days, WITH rain...and for the locals that is down right nasty cold.

[serenata09]

So far the coldest day in the past few days. Sitting at 36.6 degrees right now.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If we're lucky, we might get a preview of Spring storms Wednesday and Thursday, especially East of I-35 and North of I-10.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Snow Thursday afternoon/evening around Wichita Falls?

[Portastorm]

That is a very cold and deep trough progged by several runs now of the GFS. The latest Euro (0z) is even deeper with the trough as it swings through Texas.

It's certainly not out of the question that parts of north Texas could see some snow out of that system as it moves through.

[southerngale]

We're expecting a freeze Thursday night / Friday morning, but of course the rain will have ended just in time. 60% chance Wednesday night and 70% chance on Thursday, then clear for the freeze. I'm so sick of this mud slosh I'm supposed to call a yard! It's so disgusting... we can't even walk into the yard without sinking in mud. I've been trying to get my walkway replaced (that sunk last year with the neverending rain), but it never dries out enough to do the work. We have to be able to walk through the yard somewhere to get to the car while building a new sidewalk. I was trying to spread dirt earlier, then of course, it rained. Mud all over the driveway, mud all over the current sidewalk, mud all over my porch, and the mats to clean your feet. I keep having to shampoo the carpet because some of it gets in no matter what we do. UGH... could we get some dry weather for a change?

Sorry, rant over. Needed to vent, I guess. We want to put this house on the market, but can't get the work done outside because it never dries out before more rain comes. It's like living in quicksand or something. It's disgusting and I CAN'T WAIT to get out of here!

[southerngale]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
942 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-301200-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
942 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A SARATOGA TEXAS TO
ALEXANDRIA LINE...WHICH INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BEAUMONT...LAKE
CHARLES...AND LAFAYETTE.

THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY THURSDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW ENTERS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT AS THIS POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEARS AND MOVES
INTO THE REGION...THE ATMOSPHERIC WIND PROFILE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS A
RESULT...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE PERIODS OF BRIEF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS THE GROUND IS
ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL...THIS NEXT RAINFALL EVENT
WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE RUNOFF MOVING INTO LOCAL RIVERS AND BAYOUS.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

Oh, joy.

[Diva]

Stop the blasted rain from coming here!!!!

[southerngale]

Sorry, Diva. The rain nazi won't let up. I fell asleep in the living room earlier, trying to watch last night's LOST on DVR. I'm so tired... I couldn't even stay awake for my favorite show. I guess I should sleep more.
Anyway, I just checked radar and there's a pretty hefty line of showers/thunderstorms forming and heading this way.

Btw, there was sleet in Beaumont late yesterday afternoon, near Parkdale. Posted by Greg (meteorologist) on the KFDM board to a mention of hail near Parkdale... "That is sleet. Temperatures above the surface in the 5000 to 10000 foot level are near or below freezing allowing raindrops to freeze and reach the surface."

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
413 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-010000-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
413 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

A VIGOROUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GULF WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. IMPRESSIVE WIND PROFILES AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE PERIODS OF BRIEF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS THE GROUND IS
ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL...THIS NEXT RAINFALL EVENT
WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE RUNOFF MOVING INTO LOCAL RIVERS AND BAYOUS.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

[southerngale]

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 29
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008

TORNADO WATCH 29 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC039-071-157-167-199-201-239-241-245-291-321-339-351-361-373-
407-457-481-311900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0029.080131T1150Z-080131T1900Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRAZORIA CHAMBERS FORT BEND
GALVESTON HARDIN HARRIS
JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON
LIBERTY MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY
NEWTON ORANGE POLK
SAN JACINTO TYLER WHARTON
$$

[Ed Mahmoud]

Interesting snip from NWS SJT AFD

WEATHER-CLIMATE DIAGNOSTIC TOOLS FROM THE ESRL-PSD WEBSITE
INDICATE THAT SOME CHANGES ARE IN STORE DURING THE EARLY PART OF
WEEK 2 IN THE FORM OF SOME COLDER WEATHER. A STEADY RISE IN GLOBAL
RELATIVE AAM (ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR MOMENTUM) AND RELATIVE AAM
TENDENCY HAS BEEN NOTED RECENTLY. THE AAM TENDENCY PEAKED ABOUT 4
DAYS AGO AND IS NOW HEADED DOWN. SO WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN? IT
MEANS THAT A TRANSITION TO A GSDM (GLOBAL SYNOPTIC DYNAMIC MODEL,
WEICKMANN-BERRY FEB 2007 MWR) PHASE 5/OLD STAGE 2 IS LIKELY DURING
WEEK 2. A STAGE 2 REGIME GENERALLY MEANS BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH LOWER UPPER HEIGHTS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS WHILE RIDGING IS DOMINANT
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. IRONICALLY, THE 240HR ECMWF
SHOWS AN ARCTIC BLAST PUNCHING INTO WESTERN TEXAS ON DAY 10 (SAT
FEB 10). WHILE ONE OBVIOUSLY CAN`T RELY ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
FEATURES THAT FAR OUT, THE GENERAL IDEA SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. STAY TUNED.

LACY

As a style point, I don't believe the word "ironic" or any form thereof belongs in that sentence. Now, if the climate models predicted record heat, and the 240 hour EU model predicted an Arctic blast, then 'ironic' might fit.

And for pop culture /shrieking Canadian singer afficianadoes, rain on your wedding day may be a bummer, but there is no irony.

[Diva]

Sorry, Diva. The rain nazi won't let up. I fell asleep in the living room earlier, trying to watch last night's LOST on DVR. I'm so tired... I couldn't even stay awake for my favorite show. I guess I should sleep more.
Anyway, I just checked radar and there's a pretty hefty line of showers/thunderstorms forming and heading this way.

Btw, there was sleet in Beaumont late yesterday afternoon, near Parkdale. Posted by Greg (meteorologist) on the KFDM board to a mention of hail near Parkdale... "That is sleet. Temperatures above the surface in the 5000 to 10000 foot level are near or below freezing allowing raindrops to freeze and reach the surface."

I did manage to get outside and get my walk in early....trying to beat the rain...again. Seems like that's the story of my life lately.
I see that strong line heading this way. Hopefully the "Chem Dome" will kick in and we won't get dumped on as bad.

[southerngale]

I have a feeling you got dumped on pretty badly, Diva. The storms were pretty intense. Boy, that was some loud thunder and very heavy rain! My yard is a big lake, mixed in with some light debris... got a little windy at times.

I don't think I'm ever supposed to move.

[lrak]

Interesting snip from NWS SJT AFD

WEATHER-CLIMATE DIAGNOSTIC TOOLS FROM THE ESRL-PSD WEBSITE
INDICATE THAT SOME CHANGES ARE IN STORE DURING THE EARLY PART OF
WEEK 2 IN THE FORM OF SOME COLDER WEATHER. A STEADY RISE IN GLOBAL
RELATIVE AAM (ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR MOMENTUM) AND RELATIVE AAM
TENDENCY HAS BEEN NOTED RECENTLY. THE AAM TENDENCY PEAKED ABOUT 4
DAYS AGO AND IS NOW HEADED DOWN. SO WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN? IT
MEANS THAT A TRANSITION TO A GSDM (GLOBAL SYNOPTIC DYNAMIC MODEL,
WEICKMANN-BERRY FEB 2007 MWR) PHASE 5/OLD STAGE 2 IS LIKELY DURING
WEEK 2. A STAGE 2 REGIME GENERALLY MEANS BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH LOWER UPPER HEIGHTS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS WHILE RIDGING IS DOMINANT
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. IRONICALLY, THE 240HR ECMWF
SHOWS AN ARCTIC BLAST PUNCHING INTO WESTERN TEXAS ON DAY 10 (SAT
FEB 10). WHILE ONE OBVIOUSLY CAN`T RELY ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
FEATURES THAT FAR OUT, THE GENERAL IDEA SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. STAY TUNED.

LACY

As a style point, I don't believe the word "ironic" or any form thereof belongs in that sentence. Now, if the climate models predicted record heat, and the 240 hour EU model predicted an Arctic blast, then 'ironic' might fit.

And for pop culture /shrieking Canadian singer afficianadoes, rain on your wedding day may be a bummer, but there is no irony.

LOL Ed....so do any of the other models suggest this Arctic Blast?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Interesting snip from NWS SJT AFD

WEATHER-CLIMATE DIAGNOSTIC TOOLS FROM THE ESRL-PSD WEBSITE
INDICATE THAT SOME CHANGES ARE IN STORE DURING THE EARLY PART OF
WEEK 2 IN THE FORM OF SOME COLDER WEATHER. A STEADY RISE IN GLOBAL
RELATIVE AAM (ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR MOMENTUM) AND RELATIVE AAM
TENDENCY HAS BEEN NOTED RECENTLY. THE AAM TENDENCY PEAKED ABOUT 4
DAYS AGO AND IS NOW HEADED DOWN. SO WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN? IT
MEANS THAT A TRANSITION TO A GSDM (GLOBAL SYNOPTIC DYNAMIC MODEL,
WEICKMANN-BERRY FEB 2007 MWR) PHASE 5/OLD STAGE 2 IS LIKELY DURING
WEEK 2. A STAGE 2 REGIME GENERALLY MEANS BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH LOWER UPPER HEIGHTS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS WHILE RIDGING IS DOMINANT
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. IRONICALLY, THE 240HR ECMWF
SHOWS AN ARCTIC BLAST PUNCHING INTO WESTERN TEXAS ON DAY 10 (SAT
FEB 10). WHILE ONE OBVIOUSLY CAN`T RELY ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
FEATURES THAT FAR OUT, THE GENERAL IDEA SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. STAY TUNED.

LACY

As a style point, I don't believe the word "ironic" or any form thereof belongs in that sentence. Now, if the climate models predicted record heat, and the 240 hour EU model predicted an Arctic blast, then 'ironic' might fit.

And for pop culture /shrieking Canadian singer afficianadoes, rain on your wedding day may be a bummer, but there is no irony.

LOL Ed....so do any of the other models suggest this Arctic Blast?

Some, not all, of the 12Z GFS ensembles.

New 12Z Euro looks warm in Texas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

7am temperatures for a few SE Texas locations...

Conroe: 28F
Tomball: 30F
IAH: 35F (The warm spot as usual)
Sugar Land: 34F
Brenham: 27F
College Station: 30F