Dean report is up

[Andrew92]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL042007_Dean.pdf

[HurricaneRobert]

Well, Dean was a Cat 5 in the eastern Caribbean too.

[Andrew92]

Yep, just an amazing storm. No monetary numbers from Mexico but Dean looks to be getting retired based on the type of damage and amount of destroyed buildings on its path.

-Andrew92

[CrazyC83]

I personally disagree with the upgrade to Cat 5 east of Jamaica (I would have held Dean at 135 kt there in line with the flight-level winds and pressure, seeing how everything else might have been suspect at that point).

Since I think Dean was still strengthening right up to landfall, I would have gone 903mb for the landfall pressure after the Recon measurement, although 150 kt makes sense.

[CrazyC83]

Yep, just an amazing storm. No monetary numbers from Mexico but Dean looks to be getting retired based on the type of damage and amount of destroyed buildings on its path.

-Andrew92

I'd say so too, especially when Jamaica also has a legitimate retirement case even if Mexico doesn't make such a case...

[cycloneye]

I too am for Deans name retirement.Now waiting for the Erin one.

[HurricaneRobert]

The Erin one, and possibly an unnamed one. I think it will be a late December subtropical storm.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Re: retiring Erin


It did most of its damage after NHC had turned it over to HPC, when it was no longer officially a tropical cyclone.

[CrazyC83]

Re: retiring Erin


It did most of its damage after NHC had turned it over to HPC, when it was no longer officially a tropical cyclone.

I think they meant the Erin TCR, not the retirement of the name. I don't see Erin being retired.

As for unnamed storms, I can think of at least 2, maybe 3, that deserve addition - a late August system south of Nova Scotia (I think was a full tropical storm for a while), and a subtropical storm in October near the Azores perhaps as well, plus the late December storm.

[Cyclone1]

They've stated that they will not upgrade the August system.

[CrazyC83]

They've stated that they will not upgrade the August system.

Where was that stated?

[Cyclenall]

This storm was the gem of the season. I've been waiting for the report for a long time. Last one is Erin, a tropical storm .

Amazing how it was also a category 5 in the eastern Caribbean too. I didn't think of it and it's strange how the eye didn't look like a CAT5 eye usually does.

I like the new tracking chart and line graphs that are in colour.

[Coredesat]

They've stated that they will not upgrade the August system.

Where was that stated?

It was stated in one of Gary Padgett's summaries after he spoke with Eric Blake of the NHC about it.

As for December's 95L, that system shouldn't be upgraded. It never developed enough convection (or for that matter, a warm core) to warrant a subtropical storm classification, and the NHC isn't going to upgrade a system to depression status in post-analysis.

[CrazyC83]

I certainly remember the night Dean made landfall...it seemed we were the first to know what was going on after the Hurricane Hunters themselves...and a rare case of a strengthening Cat 5 making landfall...only the Labor Day Hurricane made landfall at a lower pressure while still strengthening! (Gilbert had weakened from 888 to 900 before landfall, although I think Gilbert was around 885mb at peak)

You can only imagine what it could have been like if 2005's monsters all made landfall at peak intensity!

[MiamiensisWx]

I certainly remember the night Dean made landfall...it seemed we were the first to know what was going on after the Hurricane Hunters themselves...and a rare case of a strengthening Cat 5 making landfall...only the Labor Day Hurricane made landfall at a lower pressure while still strengthening! (Gilbert had weakened from 888 to 900 before landfall, although I think Gilbert was around 885mb at peak)

You can only imagine what it could have been like if 2005's monsters all made landfall at peak intensity!

Katrina and Rita essentially struck as monsters - it was a different breed of monster than the deep tropical Dean and 1935 hurricane, but they were monsters. Period. Most people think of wind monsters when they think of the "Big One", and I think that is a little short-sighted. There was enough devastation and impressive meteorological data from the spree of Category 3 storms during 2004-2005 (excluding Charley). I think we should heed a revised scale.

Pressure monsters (i.e. northern Gulf coast landfalls with large wind radii and surge)

Katrina
Rita
Ivan

Camille is situated between these two categories.

Wind monsters (smaller RMW and deep tropical landfalls)

Andrew
Dean
Felix
1935 "Labor Day"*
Charley

*Produced significant (18 foot) surge in the upper Keys

Note that westward-moving tropical cyclones often feature higher winds because of tighter ambient pressures (i.e. Janet, Gilbert, Felix, and Dean)

Large tropical cyclones (flooding/wind threat)

Wilma (Yucatan/FL)
Frances
Jeanne
Gilbert

Our final category covers "small" storms that still deserve respect. This includes intensifying tropical storms and Cat 1/2 hurricanes.

Good examples:

1. Humberto
2. Lorenzo
3. Katrina (FL)
4. Claudette (TX)

Another concern includes mesovortices (Andrew) or brief straight-line winds (Celia 1970 in TX).

[CrazyC83]

I certainly remember the night Dean made landfall...it seemed we were the first to know what was going on after the Hurricane Hunters themselves...and a rare case of a strengthening Cat 5 making landfall...only the Labor Day Hurricane made landfall at a lower pressure while still strengthening! (Gilbert had weakened from 888 to 900 before landfall, although I think Gilbert was around 885mb at peak)

You can only imagine what it could have been like if 2005's monsters all made landfall at peak intensity!

Katrina and Rita essentially struck as monsters - it was a different breed of monster than the deep tropical Dean and 1935 hurricane, but they were monsters. Period. Most people think of wind monsters when they think of the "Big One", and I think that is a little short-sighted. There was enough devastation and impressive meteorological data from the spree of Category 3 storms during 2004-2005 (excluding Charley). I think we should heed a revised scale.

Pressure monsters (i.e. northern Gulf coast landfalls with large wind radii and surge)

Katrina
Rita
Ivan

Camille is situated between these two categories.

Wind monsters (smaller RMW and deep tropical landfalls)

Andrew
Dean
Felix
1935 "Labor Day"*
Charley

*Produced significant (18 foot) surge in the upper Keys

Note that westward-moving tropical cyclones often feature higher winds because of tighter ambient pressures (i.e. Janet, Gilbert, Felix, and Dean)

Large tropical cyclones (flooding/wind threat)

Wilma (Yucatan/FL)
Frances
Jeanne
Gilbert

Our final category covers "small" storms that still deserve respect. This includes intensifying tropical storms and Cat 1/2 hurricanes.

Good examples:

1. Humberto
2. Lorenzo
3. Katrina (FL)
4. Claudette (TX)

Dean was fairly large at landfall too, it was about the same size as Rita was when she was at peak intensity...otherwise his pressure would likely have been quite a bit higher. I think Dean was near his theoretical peak at landfall (if it was nothing but warm water ahead I think he would have bottomed out around 900-902).

As for my 885 guess on Gilbert, it is based on the fact that the best track shows 888 followed by 889 six hours apart, and since he was likely still strengthening at the 888 (coming off rapid deepening) and weakening slowly at the 889, I estimate he got down to 885 in between there.

[Derek Ortt]

disagree with the upgrade to 150KT at Yucatan landfall. I am a big proponent in the SFMR and would have probably lowered to 140

What may have happened was similar to what I observed when I flew into Rita during and just after its EWRC. The peak winds may have lifted slightly higher during the eyewall replacement, increasing the reduction between FL and the surface, based upon the SFMR values

[Derek Ortt]

Allison was retired for what it did after HPC had the storm

[Derek Ortt]

The MPI for Dean was well below 900mb. It was not even close to its MPI

[Ptarmigan]

I certainly remember the night Dean made landfall...it seemed we were the first to know what was going on after the Hurricane Hunters themselves...and a rare case of a strengthening Cat 5 making landfall...only the Labor Day Hurricane made landfall at a lower pressure while still strengthening! (Gilbert had weakened from 888 to 900 before landfall, although I think Gilbert was around 885mb at peak)

You can only imagine what it could have been like if 2005's monsters all made landfall at peak intensity!

I remember Gilbert well. It was the first hurricane I actually remember. It gave Texas the biggest scare prior to Rita. If it had hit the Upper Texas Coast, it would be horrific disaster. Gilbert made landfall with 165 mph winds.