![Image](http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_pages/thumbs/SHEM/tc08/16S.NONAME/atlantic/tropics/geo/ir/1km/20080204.1500.meteo7.x.ir1km.16SNONAME.30kts-1000mb-131S-799E.100pc.jpg)
![Image](https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh1608.gif)
WTXS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040251Z FEB 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 79.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 79.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 13.6S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 13.8S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 13.8S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.0S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 80.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL ORGA-
NIZED SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCU-
LATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CONVECTION HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND HAS LOWERED THE CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES
AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A WEAK STEERING ENVI-
RONMENT FROM THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL SLOWLY CAUSE THE STORM
TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE.
FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW TC 16S TO
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC
AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 040251Z FEB
08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 040300) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z AND 051500Z.
It's rare for the JTWC to upgrade a system to TD in the Southern Hemisphere. They usually wait until 35 knots.