February 5-6: Super Tuesday Outbreak... 57 dead

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CrazyC83
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#141 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Feb 05, 2008 9:53 am

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... T&itype=ir

Already some storm clouds building up...notice the blues in SW Arkansas and NE Texas - I'd watch the Shreveport-Texarkana area.
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Re: Potential Mardi Gras Outbreak - February 4-6

#142 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Feb 05, 2008 10:01 am

Be safe everyone. First good VIS Sat Loop this morning as dryline in TX Hill Country progresses eastbound...

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... &itype=vis
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#143 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Feb 05, 2008 10:53 am

BREAKING NEWS - High Risk expanded!!!

Now covers the lower Ohio Valley and all of West Tennessee

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0947 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN...WRN KY...SERN MO...EXTREME SRN IL

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 051547Z - 051715Z

THE HIGH RISK IS CURRENTLY BEING EXPANDED NEWD TO INCLUDE ALL OF
NERN AR...SERN MO...FAR SRN IL...WRN KY AND WRN TN.

LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL PERSIST OVER BROAD WARM SECTOR WITH WIND
SHEAR BECOMING EXTREME LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
SUPERCELLS AND BOW STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW...TRACKING NEWD WITH TIME ALONG WARM FRONT. TORNADOES AND
PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE UPCOMING 1630Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK.

NOTE: THE ORIGINAL HIGH RISK AREA ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT...INCLUDING
MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN AR AS WELL AS NWRN MS.

..JEWELL.. 02/05/2008


ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

35218848 35038930 35059054 35809160 36339148 37249036
37878914 37778797 37088727 36258776
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#144 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Feb 05, 2008 11:00 am

I also think the MDT should be expanded to the south, southwest and east to cover the initiation and the squall line late this evening and overnight.
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#145 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Feb 05, 2008 11:23 am

After backing off on the last watch for now, now they mention it again:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...SWRN MO...WRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051618Z - 051745Z

SVR POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN
OK...SWRN MO AND WRN AR. INITIALLY...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...BUT THREATS FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES WILL
INCREASE BY EARLY AFTN.

PRIMARY MID-LVL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS W TX AT
MID-MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS N TX AND OK LATER THIS
AFTN. RECENT UPSWING IN TSTM INTENSITY/NUMBER ACROSS ERN OK
SUGGESTS THAT LARGER SCALE ASCENT ASSOCD WITH THE IMPULSE WAS
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE REGION.

SFC COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS STEADILY BEEN MOVING SEWD INTO
SERN OK THROUGH THE MORNING. THUS FAR...TSTMS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY
ELEVATED ATOP THE DEEPENING FRONT. BUT...WITH THE APCH OF THE
WAVE...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK FOR MORE SFC-BASED ACTIVITY
AS INHIBITION WEAKENS VIA LIFT/MOISTENING. PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND HEAT AND WITH MODEST INSOLATION
OCCURRING ACROSS ERN OK INTO NWRN AR/SWRN MO...MLCAPES WILL APPROACH
1000-1500 J/KG BY MID-AFTN.

12Z RAOBS SHOW NEARLY 8 CM/KM LAPSE RATES IN THE MID-LVLS AND GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR...ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE PSBL INITIALLY WITH
RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL. AS THE STORMS TRANSITION INTO A MORE
SFC-BASED VARIETY...0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 AND RELATIVELY
LOW LCL/S WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.

..RACY/SMITH.. 02/05/2008


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...

34209706 36109580 37069433 37159321 36069300 34689356
34059497
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#146 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Feb 05, 2008 11:25 am

High Risk extended northeast, also the Moderate Risk has been pushed northeast as well. Suggestions of an overnight derecho in addition to the tornado outbreak:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LARGE PART OF AR...PARTS OF NRN
MS...WRN TN...WRN KY...AND A SMALL PART OF SRN IL AND SERN MO......

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK BUT
EXTENDING ENEWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND TOWARD THE TN RIVER
VALLEY......

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS
ENEWD INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF STATES......

OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR AN OUTBREAK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES...INCLUDING LONG-LIVED
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...CENTERED ON THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MAXIMUM SEVERE THREAT AREA WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS MS RIVER
INTO WRN TN VALLEY AND NRN GULF STATES TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED EXTREME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
WIND FIELDS /H5 JET MAX IN EXCESS OF 90 KT...130+ KT AT H25/ WILL
SUSTAIN AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES/OH RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING LOWER AMPLITUDE WAVE FROM NRN TX
ACROSS OK. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
BACKBUILD/PERSIST WITHIN BROAD REGION OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND ENHANCED
ASCENT NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY SWD OVER THE OH RIVER
VALLEY.

SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING RED RIVER AREA OF SRN OK/NRN TX AND IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT LIFTS NEWD ALONG SURFACE FRONT INTO
NRN AR BY LATE TODAY AND INTO SRN IND LATER TONIGHT. AS UPPER
SYSTEM EJECTS EWD...DRY LINE/N-S SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SURGE
EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN TX AND SHIFT STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE FRONT
TRAILING FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND THEN LIFT NWD SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY. NET RESULT WILL BE PERSISTENT MOISTENING
WITHIN BROAD WARM SECTOR FROM ERN TX INTO THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 60F EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS
THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

...LOWER OH/MID MS RIVER VALLEY ENEWD INTO KY/MID OH RIVER VALLEY...


EARLY DAY ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN ISOLATED RISK OF SEVERE
WITHIN WEAK INSTABILITY AND SMALL CAP FROM PORTIONS OF SERN MO INTO
NRN KY/SWRN OH. SHEAR WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
SUPERCELLS...AND TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES ENEWD ACROSS SRN MO THIS
EVENING AND THE STRONG MID/UPPER JET MAX ROTATES NEWD ACROSS AR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EXTREME SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE INFLOW
TAPPING LOW/MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS.

WITH SURFACE BOUNDARIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN VICINITY OF SERN MO TO
SRN OH THERE WILL BE A STRONG FOCUS FOR SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS TO
DEVELOP THRU THE EVENING. HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH RISK NEWD INTO WRN
KY/SRN IL FOR THE CONCERN OF LONG LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS VICINITY
BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE THIS EVENING EWD INTO LOWER OH VALLEY.


...MID SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INITIALLY ELEVATED...WILL
PERSIST AS THEY SPREAD ENEWD AHEAD OF WEAKENING IMPULSES IN
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
SURFACE-BASED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN EXTREME SHEAR AND VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASING RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING
WINDS. 12Z SOUNDING FROM LZK AND MODIFIED OUN SOUNDING INDICATE
MLCIN IS RELATIVELY WEAK ALREADY. ONCE CAPPING BREAKS FROM ERN OK
INTO NRN HALF OF AR/FAR SRN MO WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE...SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD RAMP UP QUICKLY.

APPEARS SRN/ERN AR INTO FAR NRN LA/WRN TN/NWRN MS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY FREE OF MOIST CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
EARLY DAY ACTIVITY SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU/MO.
THUS...AS MAIN IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SPREAD EWD LATE
TODAY...ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ENSUE WITHIN MLCAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WEAK CIN. EXTREME SHEAR WITH SFC-1 KM SRH IN
EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 SUGGESTS STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ROTATION
AND AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT ONCE THEY ROOT INTO DEEPLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE A LONG-LIVED
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. STORMS MAY TEND TO EVOLVE
INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE LATE THIS EVENING AS FRONT INTERACTS WITH
RICH GULF MOISTURE AND MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES OVERNIGHT.
DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD ALSO BECOME WIDESPREAD GIVEN EXTREME
WIND FIELDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR A SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LEWP AND PRE-SQUALL LINE
DEVELOPMENT.

..HALES.. 02/05/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1621Z (11:21AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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#147 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Feb 05, 2008 11:48 am

The expansion means that two states voting today have large areas in the HIGH area, and two others have small parts (although probably insignificant in the grand scheme) in the HIGH area.
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#148 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Feb 05, 2008 11:55 am

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 051641
ARZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-060045-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE PARTS OF THE MID
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE
PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

A LARGE PORTION OF ARKANSAS
A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE

SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK/SOUTHERN MO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY

A STRONG LATE WINTER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM NOW MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND OTHER
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED
STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST THIS MORNING...AND WILL UNDERGO FURTHER
HEATING AND MOISTENING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
QUICKLY PRODUCE TORNADOES GIVEN COMBINATION OF EXTREME WINDS ALOFT
AND VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS. STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO LINES
AND CONTINUE THE THREAT OF TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE INTO THE LOWER
MS RIVER AND TN RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN END
SPREADING UP THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT THE
THREAT OF LONGER-LIVED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND FAST MOVING
LINES. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH ADDED
THREAT OF A FEW SIGNIFICANT EVENTS...BOTH TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..HALES.. 02/05/2008

$$
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#149 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Feb 05, 2008 12:20 pm

Another new watch, almost certainly PDS, planned:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX REGION NEWD INTO SERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 051716Z - 051845Z

THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE UPCOMING
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT THIS AFTN OWING TO CONFLICTING
MODEL GUIDANCE.

LDB/PAT PROFILERS COUPLED WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP CLEARLY
SUGGEST THAT A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING NEWD INTO THE
ARKLATEX REGION. WIND IN THE 1-3 KM LAYER HAS VEERED TO WSWLY SINCE
ABOUT 14Z. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...VSBL SATL AND RADAR PORTRAY A
DEEPENING OF THE MID-LVL CONVECTION JUST E OF DALLAS AND OVER NERN
TX NEWD INTO SWRN AR. BUT...UNTIL 18Z SOUNDING DATA ARRIVES...IT IS
UNCERTAIN ON HOW THIS WAVE IS MODULATING THE THERMAL FIELDS.

INHIBITION CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.
BUT...AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS VIA LIFT AND WARMS FROM
BELOW...INHIBITION SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME THIS AFTN. AT THAT
TIME...THE MID-LVL CONVECTION MAY TRY TO ROOT INTO THE UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SUBSEQUENT INTENSIFICATION...SIMILAR TO LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION WRF-NMM/NSSL.

VWP FROM LITTLE ROCK EXHIBITS SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL TURNING WITH
0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 260 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 55
KTS. IF/WHEN TSTMS BECOME SFC-BASED...MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES IN
THE MID-LVLS COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. MOST FAVORABLE REGION FOR
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN AR ASSOCD WITH DISCRETE
STORM STRUCTURES. FARTHER W...DMGG WINDS/HAIL WILL BE MORE LIKELY
AS STORMS EVOLVE MORE LINEARLY ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT.

..RACY/SMITH.. 02/05/2008


ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...FWD...

32029609 32459608 33239572 34029484 35089353 35909305
36969227 37669071 37368941 35689019 33869120 32939166
32319231 31709388
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#150 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Feb 05, 2008 12:28 pm

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/graphicast/?display=mt

NWS Jackson going wild and saying Extreme Risk! (Not even used by the SPC)
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Re:

#151 Postby Bunkertor » Tue Feb 05, 2008 12:37 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/graphicast/?display=mt

NWS Jackson going wild and saying Extreme Risk! (Not even used by the SPC)


So what´s the diference between high and extrem, when this word doesn´t exist at the spc ?
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Re: Re:

#152 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Feb 05, 2008 12:41 pm

Bunkertor wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/graphicast/?display=mt

NWS Jackson going wild and saying Extreme Risk! (Not even used by the SPC)


So what´s the diference between high and extrem, when this word doesn´t exist at the spc ?


Extreme = beyond High, they must think a major outbreak is imminent or something...
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#153 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Feb 05, 2008 12:45 pm

Storms starting to develop in NE Texas/E Oklahoma it appears...that could be the start of the real outbreak...
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Re:

#154 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Feb 05, 2008 12:55 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Storms starting to develop in NE Texas/E Oklahoma it appears...that could be the start of the real outbreak...



Watch imminent per FWD AFD snip

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1144 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008


.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS CAUGHT UP TO DRY-LINE NOW PER IMMEDIATE VEER TO W/NW
WINDS AND TEMP CONTRASTS. THIS FRONT PER SATELLITE IS AN INITIAL PACIFIC
AIRMASS...WITH MORE POLAR/COLDER AIRMASS AND STRONGER NW WINDS ARRIVING
BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME CHILLY WIND CHILLS BY MORNING.
BEST CHANCE FOR SOME WIDELY SCT STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE OVER NE COUNTIES WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST LARGE-SCALE LIFT WITH APPROACHING S/W OVER SW TX OCCURRING. THESE COUNTIES WILL BE IN FAR SWRN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH ABOUT TO COME OUT FROM SPC. CAP FURTHER SOUTH PER SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY KEEP THOSE AREAS FAIRLY LIMITED. WE HAVE UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS AND EXPECT MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE PUSHED E/NE OF N TX BY 21Z/AFTER.
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Re: Re:

#155 Postby Bunkertor » Tue Feb 05, 2008 12:56 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Bunkertor wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/graphicast/?display=mt

NWS Jackson going wild and saying Extreme Risk! (Not even used by the SPC)


So what´s the diference between high and extrem, when this word doesn´t exist at the spc ?

Extreme = beyond High, they must think a major outbreak is imminent or something...


When NWS´ highest level is "high" so this maybe is some kinda wake-up-call for the folks.
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Re: Re:

#156 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Feb 05, 2008 12:56 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Storms starting to develop in NE Texas/E Oklahoma it appears...that could be the start of the real outbreak...



Watch imminent per FWD AFD snip

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1144 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008


.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS CAUGHT UP TO DRY-LINE NOW PER IMMEDIATE VEER TO W/NW
WINDS AND TEMP CONTRASTS. THIS FRONT PER SATELLITE IS AN INITIAL PACIFIC
AIRMASS...WITH MORE POLAR/COLDER AIRMASS AND STRONGER NW WINDS ARRIVING
BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME CHILLY WIND CHILLS BY MORNING.
BEST CHANCE FOR SOME WIDELY SCT STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE OVER NE COUNTIES WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST LARGE-SCALE LIFT WITH APPROACHING S/W OVER SW TX OCCURRING. THESE COUNTIES WILL BE IN FAR SWRN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH ABOUT TO COME OUT FROM SPC. CAP FURTHER SOUTH PER SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY KEEP THOSE AREAS FAIRLY LIMITED. WE HAVE UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS AND EXPECT MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE PUSHED E/NE OF N TX BY 21Z/AFTER.


That will probably be a large PDS watch.
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#157 Postby Bunkertor » Tue Feb 05, 2008 12:58 pm

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 34
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

TORNADO WATCH 34 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC037-063-067-119-147-159-223-231-277-315-343-379-387-449-459-
467-499-060100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0034.080205T1800Z-080206T0100Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOWIE CAMP CASS
DELTA FANNIN FRANKLIN
HOPKINS HUNT LAMAR
MARION MORRIS RAINS
RED RIVER TITUS UPSHUR
VAN ZANDT WOOD
$$


ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...TSA...OUN...
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#158 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Feb 05, 2008 12:59 pm

Memphis schools closing at 12:30 pm per news reports...
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#159 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Feb 05, 2008 1:00 pm

Watch out - not PDS; it covers only the initiation stage.

SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 34
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NOON UNTIL 700
PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
PARIS TEXAS TO 20 MILES EAST OF DE QUEEN ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
N TX/SRN OK...AS WELL AS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BAND FROM NE TX INTO SE
OK. THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND THE W EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP...AND THIS ZONE OF ASCENT WILL
LIKELY SPREAD NEWD TOWARD SW/WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT...0-1 KM SRH NEAR 200
M2/S2...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S...AND MLCAPE NEAR
1000 J/KG...A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.


...THOMPSON


SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 34
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NOON UNTIL 700
PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
PARIS TEXAS TO 20 MILES EAST OF DE QUEEN ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
N TX/SRN OK...AS WELL AS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BAND FROM NE TX INTO SE
OK. THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND THE W EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP...AND THIS ZONE OF ASCENT WILL
LIKELY SPREAD NEWD TOWARD SW/WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT...0-1 KM SRH NEAR 200
M2/S2...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S...AND MLCAPE NEAR
1000 J/KG...A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.


...THOMPSON


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 051753
WOU4

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 34
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

TORNADO WATCH 34 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC061-081-091-133-060100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0034.080205T1800Z-080206T0100Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

HOWARD LITTLE RIVER MILLER
SEVIER


OKC005-013-023-061-077-079-089-121-127-060100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0034.080205T1800Z-080206T0100Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW
HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE
MCCURTAIN PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA


TXC037-063-067-119-147-159-223-231-277-315-343-379-387-449-459-
467-499-060100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0034.080205T1800Z-080206T0100Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOWIE CAMP CASS
DELTA FANNIN FRANKLIN
HOPKINS HUNT LAMAR
MARION MORRIS RAINS
RED RIVER TITUS UPSHUR
VAN ZANDT WOOD


ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...TSA...OUN...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW4
WW 34 TORNADO AR OK TX 051800Z - 060100Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45WNW PRX/PARIS TX/ - 20E DEQ/DE QUEEN AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM N/S /53ESE ADM - 32N TXK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.

LAT...LON 35119616 35279405 32819405 32659616

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.


Watch 34 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
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CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#160 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Feb 05, 2008 1:16 pm

Another watch, also probably PDS, likely by 2 pm:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN AND WRN MS...FAR ERN AR...SWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051811Z - 051945Z

CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS
WITH TORNADOES TO DEVELOP...AND A WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE WARM
SECTOR WITH 63-66 F DEWPOINTS COMMON. SOME CAPPING REMAINS
ESPECIALLY WITH SWD EXTENT BUT CONTINUED HEATING AND DEEPENING OF
THE MOIST BL WILL ERODE CAP FROM BELOW.

OVERALL...FORCING IS RATHER UNFOCUSED IN THE FREE WARM SECTOR.
HOWEVER...DEEPENING LINES OF CU...WITH CONTINUED
DESTABILIZATION...MAY RESULT IN A FEW LONGER LIVED UPDRAFTS LEADING
TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHEAR PROFILES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR STORM ROTATION...THUS ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

..JEWELL.. 02/05/2008


ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

33179192 35759104 35978963 35858872 34698852 32658881
32209033 32289094 32569189
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