MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA AND AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 36...
VALID 052136Z - 052300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 36 CONTINUES.
...INCREASING RISK FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...DMGG WINDS AND STRONG TORNADOES THROUGH THE EVENING OVER A
LARGE PART OF AR AND NRN LA AND POINTS EWD...
21Z JACKSON SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT THE CAP HAS ERODED. INCREASING
ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WAS RESULTING IN
NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SPROUTING INTO TSTMS. STRONG WIND
PROFILES AND MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LVL SHEAR IN PLACE /LZK VWP SRH 330+
M2/S2/ ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT RISKS FOR STRONG
TORNADOES...DMGG WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL. THE UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR COVERS A LARGE REGION OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND ANY STORM THAT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED COULD BE LONG-LIVED.
LATER THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER WRN PORTIONS
OF THE WW WITH ADDITIONAL RISKS FOR SVR TSTMS WITH ALL FACETS OF SVR
WEATHER PSBL.
..RACY.. 02/05/2008
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...
February 5-6: Super Tuesday Outbreak... 57 dead
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NW Arkansas
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
347 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NEWTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS
* UNTIL 430 PM CST
* AT 345 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR OZONE
RECREATION AREA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
JASPER AROUND 415 PM CST...
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
347 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NEWTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS
* UNTIL 430 PM CST
* AT 345 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR OZONE
RECREATION AREA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
JASPER AROUND 415 PM CST...
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Re: Potential Mardi Gras Outbreak - February 4-6
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CST FOR
NORTHWESTERN CHICOT AND NORTHEASTERN ASHLEY COUNTIES...
AT 351 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A TORNADO NEAR SNYDER...OR
ABOUT 15 MILES WEST OF LAKE VILLAGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED TORNADO DAMAGE SOUTH AND EAST OF
HAMBURG.
NORTHWESTERN CHICOT AND NORTHEASTERN ASHLEY COUNTIES...
AT 351 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A TORNADO NEAR SNYDER...OR
ABOUT 15 MILES WEST OF LAKE VILLAGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED TORNADO DAMAGE SOUTH AND EAST OF
HAMBURG.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Potential Mardi Gras Outbreak - February 4-6
RL3AO wrote:...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CST FOR
NORTHWESTERN CHICOT AND NORTHEASTERN ASHLEY COUNTIES...
AT 351 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A TORNADO NEAR SNYDER...OR
ABOUT 15 MILES WEST OF LAKE VILLAGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED TORNADO DAMAGE SOUTH AND EAST OF
HAMBURG.
First of many such reports perhaps?
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
New watch to the south:
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 38
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF TYLER TEXAS TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LONGVIEW
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 34...WW 35...WW 36...WW
37...
DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS WILL MOVE EWD WITH COLD FRONT
ACROSS E TX THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY E OF THE FRONT ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...THOMPSON
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 38
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF TYLER TEXAS TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LONGVIEW
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 34...WW 35...WW 36...WW
37...
DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS WILL MOVE EWD WITH COLD FRONT
ACROSS E TX THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY E OF THE FRONT ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...THOMPSON
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 052155
WOU8
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 38
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 38 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
TXC001-005-073-183-203-289-347-365-401-403-405-419-423-060200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0038.080205T2200Z-080206T0200Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ANGELINA CHEROKEE
GREGG HARRISON LEON
NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RUSK
SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY
SMITH
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 38 SEVERE TSTM TX 052200Z - 060200Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
40SSW TYR/TYLER TX/ - 55ESE GGG/LONGVIEW TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /59SW GGG - 42S EIC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 32689566 32939384 31209384 30959566
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 38 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 38
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF TYLER TEXAS TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LONGVIEW
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 34...WW 35...WW 36...WW
37...
DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS WILL MOVE EWD WITH COLD FRONT
ACROSS E TX THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY E OF THE FRONT ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...THOMPSON
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 38
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF TYLER TEXAS TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LONGVIEW
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 34...WW 35...WW 36...WW
37...
DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS WILL MOVE EWD WITH COLD FRONT
ACROSS E TX THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY E OF THE FRONT ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...THOMPSON
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 052155
WOU8
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 38
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 38 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
TXC001-005-073-183-203-289-347-365-401-403-405-419-423-060200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0038.080205T2200Z-080206T0200Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ANGELINA CHEROKEE
GREGG HARRISON LEON
NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RUSK
SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY
SMITH
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 38 SEVERE TSTM TX 052200Z - 060200Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
40SSW TYR/TYLER TX/ - 55ESE GGG/LONGVIEW TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /59SW GGG - 42S EIC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 32689566 32939384 31209384 30959566
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 38 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
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HarlequinBoy
- Category 5
- Posts: 1400
- Age: 34
- Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 1:57 am
- Location: Memphis
Re: Potential Mardi Gras Outbreak - February 4-6
The cell into Desha County, Arkansas is going to track just SE of where the EF3 Dumas tornado hit nearly a year ago.
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-
Squarethecircle
- Category 5
- Posts: 2165
- Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:00 pm
- Location: Fairfax, VA
-
HarlequinBoy
- Category 5
- Posts: 1400
- Age: 34
- Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 1:57 am
- Location: Memphis
-
HarlequinBoy
- Category 5
- Posts: 1400
- Age: 34
- Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 1:57 am
- Location: Memphis
I'm going to try to keep a running list of tornado warnings. May be a bit slow as some thunderstorms are causing the DSL light to go on and off at times.
Tornado Warnings
Southeast Desha in SE Arkansas until 445 PM.
Bolivar County in NW Mississippi until 500 PM. (Including Cleveland)
Northwestern Washington County in NW Mississippi until 500 PM.
Northeast Chicot County in SE Arkansas until 500 PM.
Northern Chicot County in SE Arkansas until 430 PM.
Tornado Warnings
Southeast Desha in SE Arkansas until 445 PM.
Bolivar County in NW Mississippi until 500 PM. (Including Cleveland)
Northwestern Washington County in NW Mississippi until 500 PM.
Northeast Chicot County in SE Arkansas until 500 PM.
Northern Chicot County in SE Arkansas until 430 PM.
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