SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[Extremeweatherguy]

A line of storms is rapidly forming to our west right now. The big question will be how far south it can extend. We will need to watch this closely through the afternoon and evening...

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... g_off=9999

[jasons2k]

latest from Jeff:

Cap is breaking across N and C TX as powerful upper trough eject into the C US.

Within the last hour thunderstorms have rapidly developed along the dryline from Dallas to N of Austin were strong speed max as rotated into the base of the upper trough. Per 18Z special soundings out of LCH only 34J/kg of capping remains…likely somewhat stronger over our region…but recent visible satellite images do show cumulus towering going up W of KCLL to E of KAUS along the dryline over eastern Williamson and Travis counties. Mixing layer is deepening along the dryline and surface convergence appears to be just enough to break through the remaining capping warm layer. Visible images also show low level cloud deck breaking ahead of the dryline allowing surface heating and helping to reduce cap intensity..this is noted in puffy Cu from about Columbus to N of CLL.

18Z sounding was not taken at CRP…however it is likely that enough capping remains across the SW 1/4th of the area to prevent storms from developing. At this time will go with a severe threat for large hail and wind damage mainly along and N of I-10 through this evening as the developing squall line moves across the region.

SPC may issue a new weather watch that may include a portion (northern) of SE TX based on current radar and satellite trends as current activity builds SSW along northern edge of stronger capping.

[jasons2k]

Anyone else notice it's in the 90's on the SC Texas Plains - even 99F in Hebbronville? Crazy...

[srainhoutx]

Getting good break in cloud cover in NW Harris County at this time. CAP "may" erode a bit N of I-10.
And yes I noticed that Jason.

[Extremeweatherguy]

One thing I am noticing is that the wind speeds seem to spike behind the passage of the dry-line/cold front. WInd gusts shot up to 45mph in Dallas, 39mph in Waco, 36mph in Temple, and 32mph in Austin behind the front. Also, sustained winds speeds over 20mph have been recorded in quite a few locations, with a sustained speed as high as 36mph recorded in Dallas earlier today. It will be interesting to see if we get in on any of the strong winds down here too (Besides the southerly winds of ~15mph and gusts to 20-25mph that we are already receiving).

[jasons2k]

Well the line just doesn't want to backbuild any more, at least for now. We'll see what happens but not looking like much at all for us ATTM.

[jasons2k]

Update: There is a blip on radar over at Colorado & Lavaca counties...but will it bust through?? Hmmmmm.....

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, I just noticed that too Jason. It looks like the line may be trying to develop further southward (all the way to Victoria), but it is still quite weak south of College Station. We will just need to wait and see if this can intensify into a more significant feature before reaching Houston. ATM it continues to look pretty pathetic, but who knows what the next hour or two will bring..

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... rainsnow=0

[jasons2k]

[jasons2k]

The storms down by Victoria do seem to be popping. But it's 90+ across the dryline over there aiding their development. I wonder if the storms can sustain themselves as they move into a slightly cooler airmass towards Houston. Tough, tough call.

[jasons2k]

[jasons2k]

Looking at the radar loops out of Corpus....what happened down there is that they had a sea breeze form and it collided with the dryline. That popped the storms near Victoria. You don't see that every day.

[Extremeweatherguy]

additional storm continue to form to the northeast and it now looks like the northern ones have Houston on their future hit list (if they stay together). Going to be an interesting evening if these can strengthen any..

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am very surprised that none of those cells near Victoria have been warned yet. The radar has been indicating a decent chance of severe hail for the past several minutes now, and it is odd to see no warning issued under those kind of circumstances. As of the latest radar image (5:27pm), the strongest storm is sporting a 100% chance of hail, a 60% chance of severe hail and a maximum hail size of 1.25" (according to the weatherunderground nexrad radar).

update - looks like I spoke too soon. A warning has now been issued.

[Extremeweatherguy]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0554 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 052354Z - 060130Z

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER SERN TX AND A WW MAY BE
REQUIRED.

STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG COLD FRONT WITH RAPID COOLING AROUND 700 MB
ERODING CAP. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL PROMOTE LARGE HAIL...WHILE DRY AIR ALOFT AND MODERATE PRESSURE
RISES PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR E STORMS
WILL PERSIST GIVEN CAPPING.

RAPID VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALONG THE FRONT MAY
MINIMIZE THE TORNADO THREAT WITH STORMS RIGHT ON THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...STORMS THAT CAN MOVE AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND BECOME
DISCREET WOULD POSE A TORNADO THREAT.

..JEWELL.. 02/05/2008

[Stratosphere747]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC285-060030-
/O.NEW.KEWX.SV.W.0002.080206T0004Z-080206T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
604 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LAVACA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 630 PM CST.

* AT 555 PM CST...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF SPEAKS...OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HALLETTSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL LAVACA COUNTY AT 620 PM CST

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

[Stratosphere747]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
612 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 700 PM CST

* AT 611 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED 14 MILES EAST OF SPEAKS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NADA...
GARWOOD...
EGYPT...

[Stratosphere747]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 060008 AAA
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
608 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

.UPDATE...
UPDATING FORECAST TO BEEF UP POPS THIS EVENING RIGHT ALONG THE
DRYLINE. CLOSELY MONITORING SEVERE STORM OVER LAVACA COUNTY. ALSO
APPEARS THAT CONVECTION MAY BE BEGINNING TO EVOLVE FURTHER NORTH
OVER THE CWA. EXPECT THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO
PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM...THEN WIND DOWN AS FRONT MOVES INTO
THE MORE STABLE/CAPPED AIRMASS NEAR THE COAST. DENSE SEA FOG WILL
PERSIST OVER GALVESTON BAY UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT WHEN THE FRONT
PASSES.

[KatDaddy]

The cell over Wharton County becoming a right-mover during the last frames.

[jasons2k]

I'll be watching closely to see if it holds together. Moved the SUV into the garage just in case.

Yeah, that cell in Wharton County is pulsing again with lots of lightning.