February 5-6: Super Tuesday Outbreak... 57 dead

[JonathanBelles]

When is the next update? 3pm?

[CrazyC83]

When is the next update? 3pm?

Yep, 2000Z. By then the front should be cleared of the mountains and in the Piedmont and coastal plains.

[CrazyC83]

The SPC does seem to think a dry slot will form behind the squall line in the mid-Atlantic, which is where the severe threat will be. However, will there be a clearing between the systems?

[CrazyC83]

New tornado watch coming:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CST WED FEB 06 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IND...SWRN/SCNTRL OH...CNTRL/ERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 061654Z - 061830Z

DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MID-OH VLY THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

THE UPR LOW OVER MO IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST
THIS AFTN. ASSOCD STRONG COLD FRONT...NOW ANALYZED FROM SCNTRL IND
SWD INTO MIDDLE TN...WILL RAPIDLY SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE MID-OH VLY
BY LATE THIS AFTN. VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCD WITH THE
IMPULSE WILL ENHANCE THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND RESULT IN A BAND OF
VIGOROUS CONVECTION.

VSBL SATL SHOWS THAT THE PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE THINNED SOMEWHAT
ACROSS KY AND SCNTRL OH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO HEAT
AND RESULT IN SOME DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONVECTION
ALREADY EVOLVING ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO
THIS INSTABILITY AXIS LATER THIS AFTN.

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE QUITE STRONG /80+ KTS/ AND COULD RESULT
IN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. BUT...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE
SHOULD REMAIN LINEAR WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS PRODUCING DMGG WIND
GUSTS. A FEW WIND GUSTS COULD BE PARTICULARLY DAMAGING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KY AND SWRN WV LATER THIS AFTN. IN ADDITION...A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE PSBL AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN
STRONG.

NRN EDGE OF THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE MODULATED BY A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG I-70 IN CNTRL OH. STORMS
COULD DEVELOP SWD INTO PARTS OF NRN MIDDLE TN LATER THIS AFTN...BUT
THE PRIMARY SVR THREATS SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS KY.

..RACY/HURLBUT.. 02/06/2008


ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

38918593 39358152 38808132 37798176 36888309 36668437
36938601

[RL3AO]

We have our first confirmed tornado. An EF0 in Kentucky.

[CrazyC83]

Looking at reports, the death toll is inconsistent. The official number seems to be 49, but I have heard as many as 56.

[CrazyC83]

CNN now showing a 52 death toll:

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/ ... index.html

Now officially the deadliest outbreak since May 31, 1985.

[southerngale]

Still Slight Risk: Shoot most of it looks it will be weakened before reaching my area. As usual.

I understand wanting some interesting weather, but all of this death and destruction and you're disappointed that the system may be a little weaker before reaching you?

Count your blessings!


My heart goes out to the victims and their families and friends. So tragic.

[Bunkertor]

CNN now showing a 52 death toll:

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/ ... index.html

Now officially the deadliest outbreak since May 31, 1985.

Come on - stop that body count

[CrazyC83]

Still Slight Risk: Shoot most of it looks it will be weakened before reaching my area. As usual.

I understand wanting some interesting weather, but all of this death and destruction and you're disappointed that the system may be a little weaker before reaching you?

Count your blessings!


My heart goes out to the victims and their families and friends. So tragic.

Yeah it's a double-edged sword...it's one thing to see this in sparsely-populated Tornado Alley, but another in heavily populated areas (although it seems the deadliest tornadoes were all in fairly rural areas).

[RL3AO]

I thought this was nice.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/validProds ... &node=KOHX

FINALLY, THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EXPRESSES ITS SINCERE
CONDOLENCES TO THOSE WHO LOST FRIENDS OR FAMILY MEMBERS IN LAST
EVENING`S STORMS.

[CrazyC83]

I thought this was nice.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/validProds ... &node=KOHX

FINALLY, THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EXPRESSES ITS SINCERE
CONDOLENCES TO THOSE WHO LOST FRIENDS OR FAMILY MEMBERS IN LAST
EVENING`S STORMS.

That was a very nice comment. We should congratulate NWS Nashville for that.

[Brent]

AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING,
THE TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY REPORTED THAT THERE WERE
5 DEATHS IN SUMNER COUNTY, 2 IN TROUSDALE COUNTY, AND 10 IN MACON
COUNTY.

THE 17 FATALITIES WOULD MAKE LAST NIGHT`S TORNADO THE DEADLIEST
SINGLE STORM TO STRIKE MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN NEARLY 75 YEARS, SINCE
AN F4 TORNADO HIT OVERTON AND PICKETT COUNTIES ON MAY 10, 1933,
CLAIMING 35 LIVES.



Amazing in 2008 with a well-forecasted storm we can still have such a horrible toll.

[Pedro Fernández]

Wow...................................


Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

I'm so sorry for the victims........................ Incredible weather in the USA... Suddenly, great snowfalls and freezing rains... Suddenly a tornado outbreak.......... It's incredible.

[CrazyC83]

THE 17 FATALITIES WOULD MAKE LAST NIGHT`S TORNADO THE DEADLIEST
SINGLE STORM TO STRIKE MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN NEARLY 75 YEARS, SINCE
AN F4 TORNADO HIT OVERTON AND PICKETT COUNTIES ON MAY 10, 1933,
CLAIMING 35 LIVES.



Amazing in 2008 with a well-forecasted storm we can still have such a horrible toll.

Sometimes you can only do so much...these kind of events will always happen...many houses are no match for a violent tornado and basements and storm cellars are not common in most of the South due to soil conditions and/or water tables...

[HarlequinBoy]

It's really distressing that there are so many deaths.

I think the NWS and SPC though did an excellent job, especially the NWS Offices. They warned about this for several days and there warnings last night were pretty spot on.

[CrazyC83]

It's really distressing that there are so many deaths.

I think the NWS and SPC though did an excellent job, especially the NWS Offices. They warned about this for several days and there warnings last night were pretty spot on.

You're right. They did an excellent job with their forecasts and warnings. I believe 52 of the 53 deaths (so far, including one possibly from straight-line winds) took place in areas at least under a Moderate Risk.

[HarlequinBoy]

...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO HOLD NEWS CONFERENCE AT 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE MEMPHIS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE HOLDING A NEWS
CONFERENCE AT 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AT THE AGRICENTER ON THE
GERMANTOWN PARKWAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE REGION LAST EVENING...NUMEROUS SURVEY TEAMS ARE
SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING CONDUCTING DAMAGE
SURVEYS. INFORMATION GAINED FROM THE SURVEYS WILL BE DISCUSSED AT
THE NEWS CONFERENCE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL MEDIA PERSONNEL INTERESTED
IN ATTENDING THE CONFERENCE WHO MAY HAVE QUESTIONS ARE ASKED TO CALL
THE MEMPHIS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.


This is from Memphis, BTW.

[CrazyC83]

New cells trying to form over eastern Kentucky and West Virginia - this may not be over by any means...

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CST WED FEB 06 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA...NRN FL...SRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 061952Z - 062045Z

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING STRUCTURES AT TIMES WILL PERSIST
WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS LINE IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...WITH
MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELDING ABOUT 500 J/KG MUCAPE.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S...WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THIS IS
RESULTING IN A MODERATE AMOUNT OF DCAPE AND EVAPORATION POTENTIAL.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY STRONG...AND IS HELPING TO PRODUCE
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. GIVEN FAST STORM MOTIONS AS WELL AS RELATIVELY
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE ERN FL PANHANDLE...WITH GPS WATER VAPOR VALUES INCREASING
TO 1.50 INCHES NEAR TLH RECENTLY. THIS MOIST WEDGE IS IN A NARROW
ZONE NEAR THE FRONT. AREA VWPS DO SHOW SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...HOWEVER...LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SERVE AS A DETRIMENT
TO TORNADO PROBABILITY. THUS...GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN
THREAT.

..JEWELL.. 02/06/2008


ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

29808559 31398441 32698348 33448177 33598066 33427907
32857941 32278045 31038128 30268129 29958294 29898382
30018415 29698466 29548511