February 5-6: Super Tuesday Outbreak... 57 dead

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 061958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST WED FEB 06 2008

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
APPALACHIAN MTNS...MID-ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS AND ERN GULF COAST
STATES...

...CNTRL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY
WITH A POWERFUL 130 KT MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-MS
VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A DUAL-CENTERED 995 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER IND
AND SW OH WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS KY AND TN. A MOIST
AXIS EXISTS EAST OF THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S F
ACROSS ERN KY. AS SFC HEATING CONTINUES...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
WILL OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. A STRONG BAND OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EVIDENT ON RUC ANALYSIS OVER WRN KY WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE EWD PROVIDING VERY STRONG LIFT AND SQUALL-LINE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE LINE SHOULD MOVE
QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THE SQUALL-LINE...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STORM MOTION WITH THE
SQUALL-LINE OF ABOUT 40 TO 50 KT. THE FAST STORM MOTION COMBINED
WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE A SUBSTANTIAL WIND
DAMAGE THREAT. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST WITH THE
LINE ACROSS WV AND FAR WRN VA WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY
BE THE STRONGEST AS THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR LARGE HAIL
THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR AND WITH ROTATING STORMS THAT ARE EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE
SQUALL-LINE MAY WEAKEN SOME CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS BUT AT LEAST
AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE LINE
REACHING THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS BY LATE THIS EVENING.

...FL PANHANDLE/GA/SC...
A LINE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE EXTENDING NNEWD INTO CNTRL GA. THE LINE IS LOCATED JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH A MOIST AXIS OF MID 60S F DEWPOINTS
EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SRN GA. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO SRN GA
THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SUSTAIN THE LINE EWD INTO SE GA. CONCERNING
THE SEVERE THREAT...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES EXIST ACROSS
SERN GA WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM SHOULD KEEP AN THREAT FOR
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL GOING THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 02/06/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2016Z (3:16PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Brent]

ABC 33/40 meteorologist Brian Peters, who worked as a Warning Coordination Meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Birmingham for many years, has been dispatched to the Jackson County storm site; he is on a QRT (quick response team) that is called in when tornado damage is considered to be EF4 or EF5. We just heard from the Huntsville NWS office; they will hold a briefing at 3:00 at the Rosalie Community Center in Jackson County to disclose their story survey findings.



http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/?p=5440

[CrazyC83]

Sounds like that could be an EF4...I don't see anything anywhere warranting EF5 but that is just my view.

[Squarethecircle]

Wikipedia has cited six confirmed tornadoes so far, two of each under EF3.

[HarlequinBoy]

Wow, those were strong winds last night. A brick gas station/convenience store had its roof blown off only a half mile from my house. I had no idea.. drove past it and its impressive.

[HarlequinBoy]

So far no survey results from Memphis, Nashville, Little Rock, or Paducah.. and still the worst damage from Huntsville, Louisville, and Birmingham offices haven't been reported.

[tidesong]

Where's the Wiki page located?

[Brent]

Where's the Wiki page located?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Tues ... ak_of_2008

[HarlequinBoy]

Jackson, TN tornado rated EF4. Third F4/EF4 to hit there in 8 years.

Memphis, TN tornado rated EF2. 4 fatalities in Shelby County.

Arlington, TN tornado rated EF2. (Another Shelby County tornado.)

[MGC]

John Kerry blames this tornado outbreak on global warming. What an moron. There have been killer tornado events like this in the past. My prayers are with everyone affected by this event.....MGC

[HarlequinBoy]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nx_nSAB6LWE
^ Tornado that hit Atkins, AR.

[Coredesat]

John Kerry blames this tornado outbreak on global warming. What an moron. There have been killer tornado events like this in the past. My prayers are with everyone affected by this event.....MGC

It's just as shallow to call someone a moron for this; a better idea would've been just not to say anything as both you and he should know better that a local or regional event can't be used as definitive evidence of a global phenomenon.

[Coredesat]

MSNBC says the death toll is now up to 54.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23006771/

[RL3AO]

We will probably end with 40-50 tornadoes. While rare, it wasn't record breaking. The problem was, the tornadoes just happened to hit populated areas this time and caused a high death toll.

[yzerfan]

http://www.jacksonsun.com/apps/pbcs.dll ... 1/80206054

"Tuesday's tornado was an EF-4

By TYRONE TONY REED JR.
ttreed@jacksonsun.com

An EF-4 tornado touched down in Madison County on Tuesday night and left a 35-mile path of destruction, according to Paul Latture, public information officer for Jackson-Madison County Emergency Operations Center.
Two Union University students remain in critical condition after receiving injuries in the tornado, officials said during a press conference this afternoon."

[Coredesat]

http://www.jacksonsun.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080206/NEWS01/80206054

"Tuesday's tornado was an EF-4

By TYRONE TONY REED JR.
ttreed@jacksonsun.com

An EF-4 tornado touched down in Madison County on Tuesday night and left a 35-mile path of destruction, according to Paul Latture, public information officer for Jackson-Madison County Emergency Operations Center.
Two Union University students remain in critical condition after receiving injuries in the tornado, officials said during a press conference this afternoon."

That'd pretty much confirm my suspicions. Given what the Union University president was saying on the radio last night, I suspected EF4 or high-end EF3. The damage also seems to confirm EF4 (that women's dorm was absolutely flattened).

[CrazyC83]

I agree, EF4 seems right for that one. I wonder what Memphis will be (I heard EF2, although EF3 seems more like it)

[HarlequinBoy]

I agree, EF4 seems right for that one. I wonder what Memphis will be (I heard EF2, although EF3 seems more like it)

The tornado that hit Hickory Hill area of Memphis they're saying is EF2. According to WMC the NWS showed a Powerpoint presentation and said that there may be 9 tornado tracks in Desoto and Shelby county.

[Squarethecircle]

23 confirmed so far. 4 EF3s (two from each day).

[Brent]

I agree, EF4 seems right for that one. I wonder what Memphis will be (I heard EF2, although EF3 seems
more like it)

...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DAMAGE SURVEY CREW DETERMINES EF-2
TORNADO IN NORTHEAST SHELBY COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST TIPTON COUNTY
TENNESSEE...

STORM SURVEY FOR SUMNER COUNTY...THE TORNADO SET DOWN SOUTHEAST
OF GALLATIN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HARSH LANE AND HILTON LANE.
AS IT TOUCH DOWNED THE DAMAGE PATH WAS 300 YARDS WIDE AND
INCREASED TO A 1/2 MILE WIDE DAMAGE PATH AS IT MOVED THROUGH THE
COMMUNITY OF CASTALIAN SPRINGS IN EASTERN SUMNER COUNTY. THIS
TORNADO THEN MOVED THROUGH NORTHWEST TROUSDALE COUNTY AND CROSSED
HIGHWAY 141 NEAR THE GAS PLANT BEFORE MOVING INTO MACON COUNTY.
STORM STRENGTH WAS AT LEAST AN EF 2.

STORM SURVEY INDICATED THE TORNADO THEN ENTERED MACON COUNTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND TRAVELED NORTHEAST. THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH SIDE
OF THE CITY OF LAFAYETTE RECEIVED DAMAGED WITH MULTIPLE
FATALITIES. DAMAGE PATH OF THE TORNADO THROUGH THE CITY WAS NEAR
3/4 MILE WIDE AND INCREASED TO WIDER THAN 3/4 OF A MILE AS IT
MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE CITY. STORM STRENGTH WAS AT LEAST AN EF 2.