Extreme Tornado Outbreaks & Hurricane Landfalls

[Blown Away]

Just an observation. After reading Jeff Master's blog I noticed the (2) years he referenced as significant tornado outbreaks also had landfalling hurricanes in Florida (1949 & 1985). Is there any scientific link?

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200802

[AJC3]

Just an observation. After reading Jeff Master's blog I noticed the (2) years he referenced as significant tornado outbreaks also had landfalling hurricanes in Florida (1949 & 1985). Is there any scientific link?

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200802

Though I don't have hard data to back it up, I suspect that there may be at least some weak correlation.

Several notable U.S. TOR outbreaks have occurred during the cold ENSO phase (La Nina), and it might follow that during the subsequent hurricane seasons following those events, cold phases might have lingered, which would tend to favor fairly active hurricane seasons, and then perhaps a greater chance of a Florida hit.

Again, no hard data here...just throwing out some SWAG-type possibilities.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Joe Bastardi used the '49 winter as his best analog for this year, and so far, his winter prediction has been close, and a Cat 3 hit Miami the following summer (while Texas was completely spared), so I'm interested.

[cycloneye]

Tony,(AJC) look at 1985.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Tony,(AJC) look at 1985.

Another year that was good for Texas and not so good for Florida.

[Ed Mahmoud]

And Kate hit Florida as a major in November, didn't it?

[cycloneye]

And Kate hit Florida as a major in November, didn't it?

Hurricane Kate

It was a 2 when it made landfall.

[MiamiensisWx]

Tony,(AJC) look at 1985.

What's so notable about 1985? Its first NS formed in July, which is later than many early season formations...

Are you making a reference to its above average activity and number of landfalls? It seems like 1985 is your "favorite" analog prior to the start of every season since 2003...

[Cyclone1]

What's so notable about 1985?

Elena, Gloria, Isabel, Juan, Kate?

All highly damaging storms.

Plus, Bob and Danny were landfalling US hurricanes. 85 was a very active year. Half of all seasons on average don't start until July.

[Andrew92]

I've been watching some videos on YouTube of older hurricanes, and it recently came to my attention that Danny of that year caused a significant tornado outbreak in Alabama.

I don't know about 1949, but here's some proof about what Danny did:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IY-3b1Bnz-A (from Alabama, you can see classic TWC red screens!)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKqgCeJAbaw

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKG1uBqVPb0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FptOPAD44no

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTyIaCJtrVo

All courtesy of Mikewx2.

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

And....after reading that posting a little further, I'm a little skeptical, or maybe just forgetful, somewhere. It says this is the deadliest tornado outbreak since 1985.

But my question is, is he sure it wasn't as deadly as the May 1999 outbreak in Oklahoma which included that ogre F5?

1999 was a La Nina too, if I recall. If this is the case, who is to say 1999 isn't a decent analog for this year?

-Andrew92

[AJC3]

And....after reading that posting a little further, I'm a little skeptical, or maybe just forgetful, somewhere. It says this is the deadliest tornado outbreak since 1985.

But my question is, is he sure it wasn't as deadly as the May 1999 outbreak in Oklahoma which included that ogre F5?

1999 was a La Nina too, if I recall. If this is the case, who is to say 1999 isn't a decent analog for this year?

-Andrew92

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/storms/19990503/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oklahoma_Tornado_Outbreak

Keep in mind this is Wikipedia, but it lists the death toll for that outbreak at 48 in KS/OK. NWS Norman lists 40 people perishing in OK alone.

[Andrew92]

Thanks for the clarification. Still, you've gotta think that if we're using analogs based on La Ninas and tornado outbreaks, that 1999 would probably be a pretty good analog for this year so far.

-Andrew92

[Ptarmigan]

I've been watching some videos on YouTube of older hurricanes, and it recently came to my attention that Danny of that year caused a significant tornado outbreak in Alabama.

I don't know about 1949, but here's some proof about what Danny did:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IY-3b1Bnz-A (from Alabama, you can see classic TWC red screens!)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKqgCeJAbaw

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKG1uBqVPb0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FptOPAD44no

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTyIaCJtrVo

All courtesy of Mikewx2.

-Andrew92

I saw a satellite image of Hurricane Danny of 1985. It is quite large. It had winds of 80 mph and central pressure of 987 millibars. It produced up to 47 tornadoes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Danny_(1985)

[Ptarmigan]

1985 was an average year, except 8 tropical storms and hurricanes made landfall on America, which was a record prior to 2004 and 2005. 1985 was quite a season.