SWIO: Tropical Depression HONDO (TC 16S)

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 FEB 2008 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 15:37:09 S Lon : 84:25:27 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 916.6mb/127.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.5 6.8 6.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.6mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 34 km

Center Temp : +6.3C Cloud Region Temp : -74.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Intensity increasing.

[KWT]

Yeah I agree you can see the conveciton around the eyewall getting stronger again with colder cloud tops, that woud hint along with the better shape again that the system is starting to get stronger...certainly is a very interesting cyclone this one we've bee blessed so far in 2008 by some decent systems.

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 FEB 2008 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 15:40:54 S Lon : 84:29:42 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 913.4mb/129.6kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.6 6.8 6.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.6mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 33 km

Center Temp : +0.7C Cloud Region Temp : -76.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Squarethecircle]

The JTWC is just insufferable! They LOWERED the intensity, going against both the T-numbers and their previous forecast! It's like they just decided the storm must be weakening!

Bizarre.

[Sanibel]

I think this is out in the middle of the Indian Ocean 1000 miles SE of Diego Garcia.

I don't remember many recent intense cyclones from this area.

Cool. Satisfies my hurricane obsession during off-season.

[Cyclenall]

Typical annular behavoir. When I first got on the NRL I thought the eye was warmer and it wasn't weaker. Great tropical cyclone.

[Squarethecircle]

I bet you that we aren't going to see anything like this in the Atlantic this season.

Could we get some data on TCs in this area (feeling lazy)?

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 FEB 2008 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 15:52:15 S Lon : 84:40:51 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 906.9mb/134.8kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.8 7.0 7.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 32 km

Center Temp : +5.0C Cloud Region Temp : -77.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[HurricaneRobert]

Yeah, the strongest ones usually intensify near Madagascar unfortunately. A strong fish spinner like this one is neat to watch.

[Squarethecircle]

Wow, the raw T-number is 7.0! This is awesome!

[JonathanBelles]

This one has definatly been fun to watch.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[KWT]

Certanly is a powerful sysem this one and its getting stronger as the dvorak numbers show, I'll be very surpried if the offical strength if the system is not incresed by quite a lot during the next advisory as it does look very strong...quite possibly will be up in the top 5 strongest systems this year unless the W.Pac has a very strong season.

By the way that eyewall is nearly perfect, amazing images!

[Squarethecircle]

:darrow:

Holy crap!

[Coredesat]

Eye temperature has warmed somewhat.

[Squarethecircle]

No duh.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Eye temperature has warmed somewhat.

130-135 knots

[Coredesat]

No longer annular, but the structure is still quite impressive.

[Squarethecircle]

Should start a weakening trend somewhat soon. I'd put the initial peak at 140 knots, 907 hPa, and secondary peak at 133 knots, 911 hPa, unless it, against even further odds, intensifies.