TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[Portastorm]

I think I'm ready to call it ... I don't see any hope of a wintry weather event upcoming in February for areas of Texas south of Waco.

This "winter" has been a profound disappointment in my estimation!

I know that some of you love this warmth but we'll pay a price for it later. Without any good, very hard freezes, I predict the bugs/skeeters this spring and summer will be big enough to steal away small children!

[jasons2k]

7am temperatures for a few SE Texas locations...

Conroe: 28F
Tomball: 30F
IAH: 35F (The warm spot as usual)
Sugar Land: 34F
Brenham: 27F
College Station: 30F

Well, of course IAH will be the warm spot compared to all those locations when you omit Hobby, Pearland, Ellington Field & Galveston from your list. Pearland was 35F like IAH and all the rest of the locations were warmer than IAH.

All the other sites you chose were either north or west of IAH, some a few counties away -- and in Texas those places are almost always colder.

[serenata09]

I think I'm ready to call it ... I don't see any hope of a wintry weather event upcoming in February for areas of Texas south of Waco.

This "winter" has been a profound disappointment in my estimation!

I know that some of you love this warmth but we'll pay a price for it later. Without any good, very hard freezes, I predict the bugs/skeeters this spring and summer will be big enough to steal away small children!

I'm going to agree with you on that one. Forecasted high of 78 degrees on Sunday. Time to welcome in Spring.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Light frost on the windshield this morning, about 5 miles West of IAH and 5 miles South of DWH.

[richtrav]

I think I'm ready to call it ... I don't see any hope of a wintry weather event upcoming in February for areas of Texas south of Waco.

This "winter" has been a profound disappointment in my estimation!

I know that some of you love this warmth but we'll pay a price for it later. Without any good, very hard freezes, I predict the bugs/skeeters this spring and summer will be big enough to steal away small children!

Nah, the recent drought should do just as good a job as a cold winter. Neither will do much good though, the bugs will still come if there's even a little rain in the spring. All a hard freeze does is make the southern half of TX look more like Nebraska, it's fine by me if they never came back (have to admit we're on a very long roll)

[southerngale]

I think I'm ready to call it ... I don't see any hope of a wintry weather event upcoming in February for areas of Texas south of Waco.

This "winter" has been a profound disappointment in my estimation!

I know that some of you love this warmth but we'll pay a price for it later. Without any good, very hard freezes, I predict the bugs/skeeters this spring and summer will be big enough to steal away small children!

Nah, the recent drought should do just as good a job as a cold winter. Neither will do much good though, the bugs will still come if there's even a little rain in the spring. All a hard freeze does is make the southern half of TX look more like Nebraska, it's fine by me if they never came back (have to admit we're on a very long roll)

Recent drought... where do you live? Come to SE TX - there's a surplus of rain here. If it's not raining now, it will be before long.

I'd welcome a drought (yeah, I know...selfish, but not a severe one... just no rain for a while!!) so I can get my sidewalk and driveway worked on, among other things. I can't put my house on the market until I get this outside stuff done and when the ground isn't a slushy mess, it's not dry enough before more rain comes. And I need to move!




Btw, was only 39F last night, after 30F the night before. Big warm-up this week, too. Spring is just around the corner.

[MiamiensisWx]

I think I'm ready to call it ... I don't see any hope of a wintry weather event upcoming in February for areas of Texas south of Waco.

This "winter" has been a profound disappointment in my estimation!

I know that some of you love this warmth but we'll pay a price for it later. Without any good, very hard freezes, I predict the bugs/skeeters this spring and summer will be big enough to steal away small children!

Well, most of the board stated that winter was "over" for Texas prior to this thread, but it was politically correct to ignore the realists.

If you continually ignore the data and rely on long-range GFS runs, you will be disappointed.

[jinftl]

I'd be curious to see what the accuracy of the long-range GFS is...other than for providing science-fiction fun on the boards...i guess it is like when we get into hurricane season and we see some wild long-range forecasts showing waves about to emerge off Africa eventually becoming Cat 5's off of Miami 2 weeks down the road...only to never materialize.

If you continually ignore the data and rely on long-range GFS runs, you will be disappointed.

[amawea]

There's going to be a blizzard around the 17th of February! Here me! A blizzard for s.e. Texas.

I'm posting this as a think it; it happens post.

[serenata09]

Forecasted high of 82 degrees today! Close to record highs?

[CaptinCrunch]

8:07am and it's 71 degrees here in Ft Worth, LOL

[jinftl]

Did the groundhog check the CPC outlook....looking like a tame stretch of temps mid-month!

[Extremeweatherguy]

An interesting note: Temperatures were actually very near normal here in southeast Texas this January, which was a bit unexpected. All the forecasts had been calling for above normal readings likely, but in the end, it seems like we were biased more near or slightly below normal last month.

January 2008 temperature variations from normal...

Houston (IAH): +0.4F
College Station: -0.3F
Galveston: -0.8F
Houston (Hobby): -0.1F
Conroe: -0.3F
Huntsville: +0.2F
Sugar Land: -1.2F

[Ed Mahmoud]

Check out the 0Z GFS loop. If (a big if), the GFS is correct, we are a week away from awesomeness.




Note the 540 dm thickness line is way behind the 850 mb freezing line, often a sign of a non-snow winter event.

Mega ice storm West of DFW.

Maybe.

OK, it is one model run, but football season is over, the Indian Ocean cyclones are interesting, but not riveting, well, darn it, I'm going to get hyped.

[Ed Mahmoud]

DGEX supports idea of a massive West/North Texas ice storm!

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm the only one psyched about a possible ¡TEXAS ICE STORM DISASTER! late next week?


12Z GFS close to 0Z GFS, and, if the GFS is correct on the general happenings, but has it usual bias of being a shade warm when dealing with shallow frigid airmasses, maybe even DFW does better than prog'd cold rain.

[southerngale]

I'm the only one psyched about a possible ¡TEXAS ICE STORM DISASTER! late next week?

Well, first of all, late next week usually = it won't be there in a few days.
Secondly, an ice storm isn't anything to get "psyched" about IMO. We had a bad one here in January, 1997. I can still remember the feeling of frozen feet... it hurt. We had no electricity for about a week, were below freezing for days. I will say that the trees looked very pretty, but they were dangerous. When you heard a loud crack, you hoped it wasn't about to fall on you or something you cared about... you would cover your head, duck, and pray. The sound of snapping branches and crashing of trees was unreal. Hardly anyone in this area had electricity. I know of one person. I had no fireplace where I lived at the time. The only heat we had was from a small grill when we cooked. It didn't do much good. Layers upon layers of clothes and blankets at night and you still felt like you were going to freeze to death. No shower for days. It was miserable. Ice storm.... no thanks!

[Ed Mahmoud]

I was in Lafayette for that ice storm. Not enough ice there to snap trees/powerlines, but the driving was more interesting than I'd like.



And of course what the GFS giveth the GFS taketh away, but the Super Bowl is over, and while NASCAR is getting started in another week (a little pre-season action tonight), looking for something exciting.


OT:
Like your avatar, my wife and I have four children, and seeing them before birth during the ultrasound, well, that was special.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I just jinxed your avatar, I see an error message there.



Anyway, I know the people who cheer for a Cat 5 hurricane to pass over their city annoy the people who live in that same city, and I certainly don't want to live in an insurance company trailer while my house is rebuilt, and I take a hit on the deductible, or sit in my relatively undamaged house for a week without electricity in August, however, getting excited about something or showing a model run certainly doesn't alter the actual weather. Hurricanes or ice storms.



But no, I don't really want elderly people to freeze in their darkened homes for a week. I get excited about extreme weather, but I'm not a sadist.

[southerngale]

I know what you mean... it just made me think about that ice storm and it was a miserable time. I do wish for snow though... even though it does no good!


Btw, I posted a few pics of that ice storm here:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=92245&p=1506089&hilit=january+1997#p1506089