SWIO: Tropical Depression HONDO (TC 16S)

[Squarethecircle]

Hehe... 100 knots.

Silly JTWC!

[HURAKAN]

Not looking very good.

[Squarethecircle]

Certainly not. It's trying to survive in increasingly worse conditions when it should've started weakening a day ago at least.

[Coredesat]

Doesn't look like it will survive much longer. Convection is decreasing fairly rapidly (compare with the previous image I posted only 2 hr ago).



JTWC is down to, amazingly, 90 kt.

[Squarethecircle]

Lol, I think they're off by about another 45 knots.

[HURAKAN]

Continues to weaken.

[Chacor]

Look at the analysis time. 09 Feb 19:30 UTC.

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 173
WTIO30 FMEE 101822
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/10/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO)
2.A POSITION 2008/02/10 AT 1800 UTC :
21.4S / 86.7E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.5 /W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 180 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 180
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 060
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1400
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/11 06 UTC: 22.3S/86.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2008/02/11 18 UTC: 23.2S/85.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/02/12 06 UTC: 23.4S/84.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2008/02/12 18 UTC: 22.8S/82.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2008/02/13 06 UTC: 22.1S/80.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2008/02/13 18 UTC: 21.3S/79.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5+ AND CI=4.5
MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE TILD BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
(37V)
AND THE MIDLEVEL ONE (85H), UNDERGOING AN INCREASING NORTHERLY TO
WESTNORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE
NORTHERN
EDGE OF WEAKENING AND DIZORGANIZING DEEP CONVECTION.
HONDO IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN WEST TO
NORTHWESTWARDS
DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AFTER THAT, HONDO SHOULD RIDE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THIS TRACK, HONDO SHOULD GO ON WEAKENING OVER COOLER SST (LESS
THAN
26,5 CELSIUS DEGREES SOUTH OF 19 SOUTH) IN A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT.
WINDS EXTENSION HAS BEEN ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO 1143Z QUIKSCAT SWATH.=
NNNN

[Coredesat]

Actually, that particular image was indeed up to date.

[Coredesat]

On the fast track to remnant low-ville.

[KWT]

Yeah its amazing to see how fast this system has decayed but then again its gone into an area of low heat contet so its hardly surprising that it can't keep itself supported.

[HURAKAN]

There is no more road for Hondo.

[MiamiensisWx]

The problem is not oceanic heat content. It's shear via the trough. Regardless, it will be moving over lower heat content, which will hasten the extratropical transition.

[Squarethecircle]

He's right, the SSTs are actually quite marginal, certainly sustainable.

[MiamiensisWx]

People always overemphasize the role of SSTA and heat content. In reality, shear is usually the primary impetus for weakening tropical cyclones. Hondo is not an exception.

[Squarethecircle]

Many storms under go ETT even before they can suffer lack of heat content disease anyway (although usually they move into cooler waters). The Wikipedia article has a good summation of this.

[KWT]

Yeah shear is playing its part as well with all the convection being placed on the southern side but its taking on a classic ET look to me now which would be suggestive of heat content lowering, though its still high enough to support convection but note how there is no convection at all in the northern side, its similar to the way big storms go ET in the N.Heisphere except all the convection on the southern side decays instead...I guess shear is only helping to speed that process up more then would otherwise be the case and the fact it looks ET maybe partly because of the interaction and partly due to the lowering of the heat content...this was more evident yesterday night withthe way the cloud tops got warmer and warmer.

[Coredesat]

You can see the effects of the shear fairly closely in the naked swirl's colder cloud tops, as well as the elongated low-level circulation. At any rate, Hondo is pretty much done for; that elongation indicates that Hondo may dissipate entirely as a distinguishable entity within the next day or two.

[HURAKAN]

[Squarethecircle]

Hey, if it's not trouble, would you mind getting that in T-number reports?