Madagascar: OVERLAND DEPRESSION ex. IVAN (TC 18S)

[KWT]

Does sort of look like maybe the first sign of a eye, there is warmer clouds in what appears to be the center which does suggest maybe, esp given its current strength is about where eyes normally start to emerge. I suppose we will find tomorrow morning!

[HurricaneRobert]

105 knots in 48 hours

[HURAKAN]

Coming together.

[Squarethecircle]

Center is hard to determine, as it is surrounded by jumbles of convection, but there is definitely a visible eye feature on the microwave imagery. The eye should start poking through soon, we might be able to see it on visible in not too long.

[Squarethecircle]

Now THAT'S an eye.

[Coredesat]

Structure does look impressive, I'm thinking potential rapid intensification if the convection can get its act together.

[Squarethecircle]

What do you mean by that? Convection looks fine on my computer. Eye should break through later tonight (or this morning. I hate time zone changes...).

[Coredesat]

:uarrow: What do you mean by that? Convection looks fine on my computer. Eye should break through later tonight (or this morning. I hate time zone changes...).

Never mind, I was looking at an older image.

[Crostorm]

18SIVAN.85kts-959mb

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

Bye Hondo, Hello Iván.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good.

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 110628

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/11/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/11 AT 0600 UTC :
14.5S / 65.0E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/11 18 UTC: 14.5S/65.2E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/02/12 06 UTC: 14.5S/65.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/02/12 18 UTC: 14.3S/65.4E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/02/13 06 UTC: 14.1S/65.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/02/13 18 UTC: 14.2S/65.2E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/02/14 06 UTC: 14.4S/65.1E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=4.0+

THE SYSTEM IS INTESIFYING PROGRESSIVELY, AN EYE IS NOW VISIBLE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY.
IVAN IS EXPECTED TO GOING ON TRACK VERY SLOWLY GGLOBALLY
NORTHEASTWARDS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 36 HOURS, THEN MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS ALWAYS
SLOWLY.

IVAN IS UNDERGOING TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS; SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES REBUILDING IN THE SOUTH AND EQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL RIGDE
THAT
REMAINS THE DOMMINANT STEERING FLOW FOR THE BEGINING OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

IT SHOULD THEN INTENSIFY GRADUALLY WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
GOOD
LOW LEVEL INFLOW (FOR THE BOTH SIDES) AND ALSO A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL
SITUATION UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.=

[Pedro Fernández]

I don't know why IVAN is still called officially 'severe tropical storm' when it is a category 1 (Saffir Simpson) cyclone tropical... In the last JTWC warning (06 UTC) is said it is showing an eye...

NRL is giving 959 mb and 85 KT... Almost a category 2 (SS) tropical cyclone

[parvez_savage]

Later on, it is forecasted that the system will track southwestwards in about 24-48 hrs. so this mean that it can be a threat to Mauritius and Reunion.....

[KWT]

Ivan looked better last night IMO, the SE quadrant looks rather weak in terms of convection almost as if there is dry air wrapped round that part of the circulation, though to be honest I've not actually looked at the WV to know if thats the case. Still its got the eye and its nt a bad looking system despite the SE looking rather bare

[Chacor]

I don't know why IVAN is still called officially 'severe tropical storm' when it is a category 1 (Saffir Simpson) cyclone tropical... In the last JTWC warning (06 UTC) is said it is showing an eye...

NRL is giving 959 mb and 85 KT... Almost a category 2 (SS) tropical cyclone

Meteo France, like all other worldwide agencies (except the Incompetent Met Deparment) use a 10-minute wind average in their warnings. Only the U.S. use a 1-minute sustained method, which makes winds appear stronger.

[Squarethecircle]

Hey guys, look at this: the eyewall is being breached!

[Chacor]

Look at all that dry air SE of Ivan.