![Image](http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_pages/thumbs/SHEM/tc08/99S.INVEST/atlantic/tropics/geo/ir/1km/20080212.0630.meteo7.x.ir1km.99SINVEST.25kts-1004mb-138S-536E.100pc.jpg)
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 52.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 53.5E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP FLARING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LLCC UNDER A REGION OF FAIR OUTFLOW
ALOFT AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 REMAINS POOR.