SWODY2 Snip
...MID/SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE NATION APPEARS LOW
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS INCLUDES MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...
WHERE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC DRYING AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS COULD END THE RISK OF STORMS BY EARLY IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...DEEPER PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...PERHAPS
NORTHWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL WAVE OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEAR TO EXIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHERE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE LATEST. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR LINEAR PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...SUPPORTED BY A
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WITH SURFACE
FLOW PROGGED TO VEER AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL PROBABLY WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS. BUT...MORE DISCRETE STORMS...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
STILL SEEM POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL SEA BREEZE...MAINLY SOUTH OF
PALM BEACH...WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY MAINTAIN A BIT MORE
CLOCKWISE CURVATURE.
..KERR.. 02/12/2008
I wonder, then, what their reasoning is.
