SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

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srainhoutx
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Re: SE TX/SW LA - Active weather week

#681 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Feb 11, 2008 9:25 pm

Snipet from SPC abit ago...

...UPPER TX COAST...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING STABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN FURTHER DECREASE IN OVERALL TSTM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TX COAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO WITH A STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM...NOW LOCATED OVER ERN
JACKSON/WHARTON COUNTIES. THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY
ASCENT WITH SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVING ENEWD TOWARD UPPER TX COAST/
NWRN GULF...WITH STORM INTENSITY POTENTIALLY BEING MAINTAINED AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST.


..PETERS.. 02/12/2008

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
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#682 Postby Yankeegirl » Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:41 pm

I still see a few flashes of lighting here and there... but nothing on the radar....
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Re: SE TX/SW LA - Active weather week

#683 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Feb 12, 2008 9:13 am

New line of storms approaching SE Texas, but they don't look all that impressive, and I think they are mostly along and behind the cold front.

Radar Loop from Granger

The line looks more impressive up towards TXK and SHV.


There has been some scattered very low stratus, almost looks like pieces of fog, blowing through, but the sun isn't completely obscured, so we should get a little warmer/more unstable before front arrives.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA - Active weather week

#684 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Feb 12, 2008 9:51 am

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0205
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN LA SWWD INTO SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 121350Z - 121445Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING MCS. A WW
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

AS OF 1335Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF A
QUASI-LINEAR MCS FROM GLH WSWWD TO W OF SHV AND THEN SWWD TO 30S
TPL. A CONSIDERABLE INFLECTION IN THE MCS HAS OCCURRED W OF
SHV...APPARENTLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SUB-SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW PER LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. 12Z
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES OVER WRN/SRN TX WITH CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
OCCURRING AHEAD OF MCS /REF SHV SOUNDING/.

EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER SERN TX INTO W-CNTRL LA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AIR MASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
PALESTINE TX PROFILER INDICATE THAT A 40-50 KT REAR INFLOW JET HAS
BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH MCS OWING TO EXPANSION OF TRAILING
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS TO INCREASE BY MID MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND
DESTABILIZES. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...NAMELY ALONG SWRN
EXTENSION OF MCS GIVEN THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT.

..MEAD.. 02/12/2008


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0205.html
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Re: SE TX/SW LA - Active weather week

#685 Postby jasons2k » Tue Feb 12, 2008 10:00 am

From Jeff Lindner:

Weather Watch box will likely be issued shortly.

MCS over EC into C TX continuing to move SE at 15-25mph this morning. Per Palestine, TX profiler rear inflow jet has developed behind MCS suggesting an increasing damaging wind threat over the next few hours. Additionally large bowing segment has developed over E TX in association with meso/comma low W of Shreveport. Given breaks in the overcast over SE TX air mass will continue to become increasingly unstable as line/MCS moves SE. Water vapor loop also shows increasing divergence as 130kt jet dives into NW TX increasing the upper air flow atop the MCS.

Expect damaging wind threat to increase over the next 2-3 hours along and W of a line from Lufkin to Liberty as MCS organizes and begins to bow out. Gust front noted on 88D out of HGX and Granger is running about 10-15 miles ahead of the rain cores…so a period of gusty winds will be likely between the gust front and onset of rainfall. Main threat continues to be wind damage…although as storm increase large hail threat will also increase.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA - Active weather week

#686 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Feb 12, 2008 10:07 am

SE Texas MCD has already disappeared. Either a watch is imminent, or they changed their minds and will wait.



If I were King of SPC, I'd issue a watch from the Lufkin area up the line to SW Arkansas, and Southeastward through Monroe and ESF. I wouldn't include HOU area at this time.

Based on radar trends.
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#687 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Feb 12, 2008 10:21 am

Image

Intense convection.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: SE TX/SW LA - Active weather week

#688 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Feb 12, 2008 10:28 am

Storms approaching Houston metro look darned unimpressive on radar loop.


However, reading between the lines, maybe Friday coastal areas will get into the warm sector when the next trough/Arctic outbreak approaches.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA - Active weather week

#689 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Feb 12, 2008 10:30 am

Per Jeff -

Weather Watch box will likely be issued shortly.

MCS over EC into C TX continuing to move SE at 15-25mph this morning. Per Palestine, TX profiler rear inflow jet has developed behind MCS suggesting an increasing damaging wind threat over the next few hours. Additionally large bowing segment has developed over E TX in association with meso/comma low W of Shreveport. Given breaks in the overcast over SE TX air mass will continue to become increasingly unstable as line/MCS moves SE. Water vapor loop also shows increasing divergence as 130kt jet dives into NW TX increasing the upper air flow atop the MCS.

Expect damaging wind threat to increase over the next 2-3 hours along and W of a line from Lufkin to Liberty as MCS organizes and begins to bow out. Gust front noted on 88D out of HGX and Granger is running about 10-15 miles ahead of the rain cores…so a period of gusty winds will be likely between the gust front and onset of rainfall. Main threat continues to be wind damage…although as storm increase large hail threat will also increase.

Image
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Re: SE TX/SW LA - Active weather week

#690 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Feb 12, 2008 10:34 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:Per Jeff -

Weather Watch box will likely be issued shortly.

MCS over EC into C TX continuing to move SE at 15-25mph this morning. Per Palestine, TX profiler rear inflow jet has developed behind MCS suggesting an increasing damaging wind threat over the next few hours. Additionally large bowing segment has developed over E TX in association with meso/comma low W of Shreveport. Given breaks in the overcast over SE TX air mass will continue to become increasingly unstable as line/MCS moves SE. Water vapor loop also shows increasing divergence as 130kt jet dives into NW TX increasing the upper air flow atop the MCS.

Expect damaging wind threat to increase over the next 2-3 hours along and W of a line from Lufkin to Liberty as MCS organizes and begins to bow out. Gust front noted on 88D out of HGX and Granger is running about 10-15 miles ahead of the rain cores…so a period of gusty winds will be likely between the gust front and onset of rainfall. Main threat continues to be wind damage…although as storm increase large hail threat will also increase.

Image



Deja vu...
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Re: SE TX/SW LA - Active weather week

#691 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Feb 12, 2008 10:46 am

....

I had a map with mine.... 8-)
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Re: SE TX/SW LA - Active weather week

#692 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Feb 12, 2008 11:06 am

Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0206
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0953 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND SERN LA/SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 121553Z - 121700Z

SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
LA/SRN MS AHEAD OF APPROACHING MCS. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ARCING LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SEWD AT ROUGHLY 35 KT ACROSS FAR E TX AND
ADJACENT NWRN LA ATTM. MEANWHILE...BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
HEAT/MOISTEN AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...WITH MODEST DESTABILIZATION
EVIDENT IN LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES.

WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...LINE OF STORMS IS WELL-ORGANIZED. THUS...THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR
POSSIBLE. FURTHER...VWPS INDICATE VEERING/INCREASING FLOW WITH
HEIGHT THROUGH THE LOWEST COUPLE OF KM WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME
TORNADO THREAT -- PARTICULARLY IF INDIVIDUAL CELLS CAN DEVELOP WITH
TIME INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE --
PER THE LATEST 4 KM WRF RUNS.

..GOSS.. 02/12/2008


ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0206.html
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#693 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Feb 12, 2008 11:11 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 121606
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1006 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

.UPDATE...
AT 15Z THE BEST DYNAMICS WERE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND THE 12Z NAM AND RUC MODELS
INDICATE STILL A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE LINE OF
STORMS PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ONE FAVORABLE FACTOR IS THE TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S NUDGING NORTHWARD FROM THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA. THE
UPPER JET STRUCTURE FAVORS THE BEST AREA FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS TO BE MORE OVER THE FAR EASTERN SET OF COUNTIES...MAINLY
EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
CURRENTLY THE RADAR INDICATES A SLIGHT BOWING OF THE LINE OF
STORMS PUSHING ACROSS WALLER...MONTGOMERY...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN
HARRIS COUNTIES. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL SEE MAINLY SHOWER(S) AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR NOW WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE
PARAMETERS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE
WEATHER AND POP GRIDS.
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#694 Postby KWT » Tue Feb 12, 2008 11:17 am

I can see the slight bowing occuring on the radar loop as well now, the convective band is decent but not amazingly strong with rainfall rates over an hour in the heart of the convective band not really above 0.5-75 inches. Will be interesting to see if anything develops ahea of the convective band, thats where the main risk is looking at the forecast.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: SE TX/SW LA - Active weather week

#695 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Feb 12, 2008 11:25 am

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 51
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

TORNADO WATCH 51 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC001-003-005-007-009-011-019-023-033-037-039-045-047-051-053-
055-057-063-071-075-077-079-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-
105-109-113-115-117-121-125-122200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0051.080212T1625Z-080212T2200Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ACADIA ALLEN ASCENSION
ASSUMPTION AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
CALCASIEU CAMERON EAST BATON ROUGE
EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE IBERIA
IBERVILLE JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS
LAFAYETTE LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON
ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE
RAPIDES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES
ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST
ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY
ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE
VERMILION VERNON WASHINGTON
WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA
$$
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Re: SE TX/SW LA - Active weather week

#696 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Feb 12, 2008 11:42 am

OK, not severe, but the portion of the line pushing into Harris County at least looks respectably strong.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA - Active weather week

#697 Postby jasons2k » Tue Feb 12, 2008 11:42 am

Yeah, interesting that the SPC put up a watch well east of here - and their MCD went up after ours did.

The line is practically here so not much time to get it together, but it is better orgainzed than it was earlier for sure. Looks like some gusty winds and brief heavy rain but that's it....
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: SE TX/SW LA - Active weather week

#698 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:00 pm

jasons wrote:Yeah, interesting that the SPC put up a watch well east of here - and their MCD went up after ours did.

The line is practically here so not much time to get it together, but it is better orgainzed than it was earlier for sure. Looks like some gusty winds and brief heavy rain but that's it....



Just stepped outside, whole sky is overcast, but not as dark as I expected.

Yesterday's late afternoon storms had the benefit of not too much cloudiness preceding, to get the full benefit of dark and ominous clouds before the storm hit, and a fair amount of cloud to ground lightning.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA - Active weather week

#699 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:22 pm

Not sure what the VIL du jour is, but if anyone is getitng hail in SE Texas now, it would be the Woodlands or just to the East.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA - Active weather week

#700 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:30 pm

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC071-201-291-339-373-121830-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0012.080212T1725Z-080212T1830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1125 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
EASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 1230 PM CST

* AT 1122 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF DOWNTOWN HOUSTON TO HUMBLE TO
CLEVELAND...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOUSTON...
KINGWOOD...
JACINTO CITY...
GALENA PARK...
CLOVERLEAF...
DEER PARK...
CHANNELVIEW...
LIBERTY...

STRONG WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OR DAMAGE
BUILDINGS. TAKE COVER NOW!

THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE
PROPERTY DAMAGE OR SERIOUS INJURY. AVOID WINDOWS AND TAKE COVER NOW!

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
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