Scientists worried about new ice age

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm here to offer opposing view of what is going on right now, globally. I also will post stuff that shows events that I can't believe is not posted.


Scientists worried about new ice age
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7 Feb 08 - Scientists worried about a new ice age seek funding to better observe something bigger than your SUV — the sun.

Kenneth Tapping, a solar researcher and project director for Canada's National Research Council, is among those looking at the sun for evidence of an increase in sunspot activity.

Solar activity fluctuates in an 11-year cycle. But so far in this cycle, the sun has been disturbingly quiet. The lack of increased activity could signal the beginning of what is known as a Maunder Minimum, an event which occurs every couple of centuries and can last as long as a century.

Such an event occurred in the 17th century. The observation of sunspots showed extraordinarily low levels of magnetism on the sun, with little or no 11-year cycle.

This solar hibernation corresponded with a period of bitter cold that began around 1650 and lasted, with intermittent spikes of warming, until 1715. Frigid winters and cold summers led to massive crop failures, famine and death in Northern Europe.

Tapping reports no change in the sun's magnetic field so far this cycle and warns that if the sun remains quiet for another year or two, it may indicate a repeat of that period of drastic cooling of the Earth, bringing massive snowfall and severe weather to the Northern Hemisphere.

As we have noted many times, perhaps the biggest impact on the Earth's climate over time has been the sun.

R. Timothy Patterson, professor of geology and director of the Ottawa-Carleton Geoscience Center of Canada's Carleton University, says, "I and the first-class scientists I work with are consistently finding excellent correlations between the regular fluctuations of the sun and earthly climate. This is not surprising. The sun and the stars are the ultimate source of energy on this planet."

Patterson, sharing Tapping's concern, says: "Solar scientists predict that, by 2020, the sun will be starting into its weakest Schwabe cycle of the past two centuries, likely leading to unusually cool conditions on Earth."

"If we were to have even a medium-sized solar minimum, we could be looking at a lot more bad effects than 'global warming' would have had," Patterson says.

But if the sun shuts down, we've got a problem. It is the sun, not the Earth, that's hanging in the balance.


http://ibdeditorial.com/IBDArticles.asp ... 9412587175

[HURAKAN]

The Sun is not going to shut down. Scientists disagree so much that this is becoming more and more confusing.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The Sun is not going to shut down. Scientists disagree so much that this is becoming more and more confusing.

I'm kind of a AGW doubter, but I think this is becoming politicized on both sides of the issue.

An interesting question, not knowing which, if any, is in the immediate future- 2 or 3ºF of global warming, or 2 or 3ºF of global cooling- which would be worse, overall, for mankind?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The sun is not going to shut down but it might go into a solar min. But I guest some people hate looking at the possiblity so much, that they can't face that it might happen. I would say a 2-3 degree cooling would be much worst for man kind.

[xironman]

Wow,

I feel so bad for Dr. Tapping, there is no telling how people will take and distort what you say these days. From what Dr. Tapping had to say about how he was portrayed in the article http://www.leanleft.com/archives/2008/02/09/6488/

Hi Tom,

Thanks for the message. The stuff on the web came from a casual chat with someone who managed to misunderstand what I said and then put the result on the web, which is probably a big caution for me regarding the future.

It is true that the beginning of the next solar cycle is late, but not so late that we are getting worried, merely curious.

It is the opinion of scientists, including me, that global warming is a major issue, and that it might be too late to do anything about it already. If there is a cooling due to the solar activity cycle laying off for a bit, then the a period of solar cooling could be a much-needed respite giving us more time to attack the problem of greenhouse gases, with the caveat that if we do not, things will be far worse when things turn on again after a few decades. However, once again it is early days and we cannot at the moment conclude there is another minimum started.

Thanks for the heads-up.

Regards,

Ken

[Ed Mahmoud]

Wow,

I feel so bad for Dr. Tapping, there is no telling how people will take and distort what you say these days. From what Dr. Tapping had to say about how he was portrayed in the article http://www.leanleft.com/archives/2008/02/09/6488/

Hi Tom,

Thanks for the message. The stuff on the web came from a casual chat with someone who managed to misunderstand what I said and then put the result on the web, which is probably a big caution for me regarding the future.

It is true that the beginning of the next solar cycle is late, but not so late that we are getting worried, merely curious.

It is the opinion of scientists, including me, that global warming is a major issue, and that it might be too late to do anything about it already. If there is a cooling due to the solar activity cycle laying off for a bit, then the a period of solar cooling could be a much-needed respite giving us more time to attack the problem of greenhouse gases, with the caveat that if we do not, things will be far worse when things turn on again after a few decades. However, once again it is early days and we cannot at the moment conclude there is another minimum started.

Thanks for the heads-up.

Regards,

Ken

Lesson there about jumping on something that might have been put out by someone with an agenda. Again, I'm still a bit of a doubter about AGW, but I know that with a lot of people seeking to destroy America's economic system pushing this from one end, others will push back from the others. (BTW, just because I suspect a lot of the AGW alarm is from people who oppose capitalism doesn't mean that AGW isn't actually happening, just that I'm not convinced).

[x-y-no]

The sun is not going to shut down but it might go into a solar min. But I guest some people hate looking at the possiblity so much, that they can't face that it might happen. I would say a 2-3 degree cooling would be much worst for man kind.

I'm trying to understand the point of this. You're suggesting that we ought to continue gambling by introducing a large forcing to increase global temperature because there's some unquantifiable possibility that the sun may enter a minimum phase at some unquantifiable point in time in the future and for some unquantifiable period?

Just checking if I'm getting this right.

[MGC]

A 2-3 degree cooling would be a catastrophe for humanity. Millions would die due to the cold and crop failure. Warming however would extend the growing season and reducing the probility of a freak killer frost, thus providing more food. Longer beach season too......MGC

[curtadams]

We would be lucky, lucky, lucky to get a Maunder minimum. We'd get an extra century to fix carbon emissions and we ourselves would probably be spared any of the nasty stuff. A 2-3 degree Maunder minimum would just about back out the heating from CO2 in most of this century. But it's a really bad idea to bet every coastal city on the planet on a year of weak sunspots indicating a Maunder minimum.

[gigabite]

Because of the variability of the Earth’s orbit I think that a 28 year forecast might have some problems.
The 2010 lustrum is obviously warmer than any lustrum between now and 2030.


There are two causes for a change in irradiance from the Sun one is a change in the Sun’s size and the other is a change in the Earth Sun distance. The irradiance is the thing that causes heat not gas in the Earth’s atmosphere. Get it? No Sun, No Greenhouse.

I don’t think Sunspots have as much to do with irradiance as they have to do with density of the solar wind. That is a factor because the water vapor in the upper atmosphere over the pacific ocean cannot rain out unless it is seeded. That water vapor is trapped there until the solar cycle starts.

As far as the timing of the beginning of Solar Cycle 24 goes the solar minimum is always 3 years before Jupiter’s perihelion.

Kennewell, John, Garth Patterson, prediction submitted September 11, 2006.
Category of prediction: Average Cycle,
Cycle 24 Prediction details:
Cycle parameter Value
Start time 2007.8 ± 0.5
Peak time 2011.7 ± 1.0
End time 2018.2 ± 1.5
Peak Value 134 ± 50

Solar Cycle 24 began January 4, 2008 that would right on time with a quarter of a year to spare.

ICE AGE
As far as the New Ice Age goes, I think the Mayans had a handle on it The long cycle starts running backwards after 2011/03/05. They were off 50 days per year on the long cycle. Not bad for a stone age culture. They had no metal, don’t you know. They were off 27 days on the year, too.



What is cool about the Mayan calendar is that they did it with stoneage technology NASA has no ephemeris for target "Jupiter" after A.D. 2049-DEC-31 23:58:54.8161. The Mayan's ran it out for over 5000 years.

Their data for Jupiter and Venus probably had a lot to do with agriculture and forecasting the rain cycle. They had cities with thousands of people tribal units rarely can sustain a population over 25.

The rain cycle is hooked up with solar flaring and the amount of mass entering the upper atmosphere from the Sun. Evidently a lot of water vapor gets trapped up there because the dust that is needed to form a rain drop cannot drift up that high. When Jupiter gets close enough to the Sun it starts to pull matter from its surface and a portion of that material gets pushed in to Earths atmosphere and comes in as carbon 13 I think, maybe it is carbon 14. I always get those confused, one forms calcium carbonate the other forms carbonic acid.

what ever... Me thimks the drought is over.


Long Live Farm Payrolls, Yea, Cash Crops!!!!