What name(s) in 2008 will be the big one(s)?

[Cyclone1]

Alex was NOT a fluke. It developed into a depression on the last day of July and was named the next day. It unexpectedly became a C2 as it brushed North Carolina and a C3 at one point on its way out to sea.

The Carolinas were also hit more than people realize in 2004. Alex, Charley, and Gaston ALL had effects on that area. It's only forgotten because of what happened in Florida that year.

Back to the topic. Which names will be big in 2008?

-Andrew92

Well, I meant it's strength was a fluke. It was highly unlikely that it would become a category 3 at that latitude, but it did.

[masaji79]

I think the names Dolly, Fay and Hanna will be big this year. It seems like these letters have been historically big storms.

[Opal storm]

Arthur and Dolly sound like duds, but Fay, Hanna and Ike sound like big ones.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

Using the 1949-50 and 1985 analogs, Texas is safe, period.


Personally, a 50 mph tropical storm in early August, break the monotony, drop some rain, would be ok, but I think nothing hits the NW GOMEX.



There is a little science to that, but not very much.

2008 will a dud year for texas, however, 2009 is another story, odd year seems to be active for the texas coast

[Cyclone1]

2008 will a dud year for texas, however, 2009 is another story, odd year seems to be active for the texas coast

Oh really?

I was curious so, I looked it up. I bolded the names of storms that had at least moderate effects to Texas.

2007 - Humberto , Erin
2006 -
2005 - Rita
2004 -
2003 - Claudette, Grace
2002 - Fay
2001 - Allison
2000 -
1999 - Bret

Interesting pattern.

[HurricaneRobert]

Humberto and Erin were nothing in Texas.

[Cyclone1]

Humberto and Erin were nothing in Texas.

Well, Erin isn't bolded, and Humberto was a hurricane landfall.

[Stratosphere747]

Humberto and Erin were nothing in Texas.

Really?

What are your parameters to count as something?

[Cryomaniac]

Humberto and Erin were nothing in Texas.

Really?

What are your parameters to count as something?

Katrina presumably

[HurricaneRobert]

Most people in SE Texas weren't aware there was a storm, much less a hurricane.

[Cyclone1]

Most people in SE Texas weren't aware there was a storm, much less a hurricane.

It nearly hit category two status, and it made landfall as an intensifying hurricane. Therefore, I bolded it.

But honestly, it doesn't matter. Let's not clog up the thread with this topic.

[wxman57]

I almost like your line of thinking... After we get past the "C" storms, Texas is safe.

Remember Rita doesn't count because the board has concluded that the Golden Triangle is a fictitious part of Texas....

Humberto was doesn't count either because it was a 24hr storm.

That line of reasoning about getting past the "C" storm might be valid in a year where the A storm doesn't occur until mid August, but it doesn't apply if the A & B storms occur in June. Texas is typically unlikely to be hit after mid to late September, so we're not even safe from an "R" storm if it enters the Gulf the 3rd week of September (Rita).

[Stratosphere747]

I almost like your line of thinking... After we get past the "C" storms, Texas is safe.

Remember Rita doesn't count because the board has concluded that the Golden Triangle is a fictitious part of Texas....

Humberto was doesn't count either because it was a 24hr storm.

That line of reasoning about getting past the "C" storm might be valid in a year where the A storm doesn't occur until mid August, but it doesn't apply if the A & B storms occur in June. Texas is typically unlikely to be hit after mid to late September, so we're not even safe from an "R" storm if it enters the Gulf the 3rd week of September (Rita).

It was tongue in cheek, though it does have limited reasoning to go on. Taking 05 out of the equation and just going by when storms started being named. One can be somewhat sarcastic by saying we are safe after the C storm.

Alicia, Allen, Beulah, Bret, Carla and Celia. All of Texas' cat threes....

Trust me though, I won't sound the "all clear" sign this year or any other after the "C" storm.

[wxman57]

It was tongue in cheek, though it does have limited reasoning to go on. Taking 05 out of the equation and just going by when storms started being named. One can be somewhat sarcastic by saying we are safe after the C storm.

Alicia, Allen, Beulah, Bret, Carla and Celia. All of Texas' cat threes....

Trust me though, I won't sound the "all clear" sign this year or any other after the "C" storm.

And all of those above made landfall in August and September. It's not the letter, it's the date that matters. By mid September we usually start to see troughing in the central U.S. and hurricanes begin to recurve east of Texas.

[Ptarmigan]

Katrina presumably

Katrina was a bona fide monster. One is bad enough. I consider Erin and Humberto to be bad storms. Erin was a rainmaker and caused flooding. Humberto just came out of nowhere.

[Ptarmigan]

Using the 1949-50 and 1985 analogs, Texas is safe, period.


Personally, a 50 mph tropical storm in early August, break the monotony, drop some rain, would be ok, but I think nothing hits the NW GOMEX.



There is a little science to that, but not very much.

2008 will a dud year for texas, however, 2009 is another story, odd year seems to be active for the texas coast

I think it is a statistical fluke that Texas gets hit in odd years. It is true that many TS and hurricanes made landfall on odd years. Even years are not safe either.
1960-TS1
1964-TS Abby
1968-Candy
1970-Celia and Felice
1978-Amelia and Debra
1980-Allen and Danielle
1982-Chris
1986-Bonnie
1998-Charley and Frances
2002-TD Bertha and Faye
2004-TS Ivan, when it regenerated

The Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900 was in a even year, which is also the deadliest in America.

[decgirl66]

Big Bad Bertha!

[StormScanWx]

Josephine stands out to me.

[Cookiely]

I will go with Dolly and Josephine. I have an aunt named Josephine but her nickname is Dolly.

[HURAKAN]

Edouard
Ike
Laura

Confidense (low)