Madagascar: OVERLAND DEPRESSION ex. IVAN (TC 18S)

[Crostorm]

[parvez_savage]

2008 15 Feb 1630z: TC 18S/IVAN: South Indian Ocean Area, Mascarenes islands area.
Centre loc: near 15.8s and 54.7e at 1430z(sat fix Jtwc).
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS(up to 06z) .
Max winds(1mn): 85kts(T5.0-)at 12z(JTWC)
CATEGORY(Australian):3
Intensifying.
SATELLITE DATA:
f17 ols vis 1354z: TROMELIN island(15.9s and 54.5e) is within the eye. At 15z the island reported 969mb.
This satellite picture depicts very intense convection north of the island with also an active curving band south of the island.

[HURAKAN]

Much, much better.

[HURAKAN]

[Squarethecircle]

Nice use of wide-angle-ness! I would've never expected a picture of the two.

Eye is still coming together now. I'd guess around another hour or two.

Edit: Just noticed a very grainy night picture that the NRL often has up. It very clearly suggests a prominent eye feature:

[HURAKAN]

Latest: ICU

[HURAKAN]

95kts-952mb

[Squarethecircle]

Looking very nice now. Eye should stabilize later tonight. I might say 95 knots is a wee bit off, but I'm not even sure in which direction.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

15/2130 UTC 16.3S 53.6E T5.5/5.5 IVAN -- South Indian Ocean

5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH

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[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

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18SIVAN.95kts-952mb

[G.B.]

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 160038

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 36/11/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IVAN)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/16 AT 0000 UTC :
16.4S / 53.3E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 400 SE: 270 SO: 270 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 070

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/16 12 UTC: 16.8S/52.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/02/17 00 UTC: 17.3S/50.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2008/02/17 12 UTC: 17.7S/49.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2008/02/18 00 UTC: 18.0S/48.6E OVERLAND.
60H: 2008/02/18 12 UTC: 18.5S/47.9E OVERLAND.
72H: 2008/02/19 00 UTC: 19.2S/47.6E OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=4.5+
IVAN HAS BEEN TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS AT 8 KT DURING THE 6 LAST HOURS
..
THE SYSTEM IS INTESIFYING, WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE OF 30 NM DIAMETER IN
LOW AND MID-LEVEL (SEE WINDSAT AT 1431Z), WHICH EXTENDS PROGRESSIVLY TO
UPPER LEVEL (SEE IR METEOSAT IMAGERY AT 1800Z).

THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS TRACKED OVER TROMELIN ISLAND AT
1500Z, WHERE IT HAS BEEN RECORDED 969,2HPA AT 1500Z. MAX SURFACE WINDS
(10 MIN AVERAGE) HAVE BEEN MEASURED DURING THE FIRST PASS OF THE EYE WALL
AT 1300Z (SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 52KT, GUSTS 80KT). THE ISLAND HAS REMAINED
LESS THAN 3 HO
URS IN A RATHER QUITE WINDS AREA (WITH WEAKER RAINFALLS). WE DON'T HAVE
WINDS DATA ANYMORE AFTER THE SECOND EYEWALL PASS.

1200Z NWP MODEL RUNS FORECAST A TRACK FOR A WESTARD OR SOUTHWESTWARDS
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER ITS LANDFALL, SOME MAKE IT CURVE
SOUTHWARDS, WILL OTHER (ECMWF FOR INSTANCE) DO ON TRACKING
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS, CROSSING THE ISLAND.

IVAN SHOULD GO ON TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT SHOULD KEEP ON REGULARY INTENSIFYING WITHIN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTAIN AND DECREASING SHEAR).

THIS FORECAST IS A MEAN OF ECMWF, ITS ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM
SOLUTIONS (EPS), AND A SONSENSUS OF US MODELS (CONW)

IVAN IS A SERIOUS THREAT FOR THE CENTRAL EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR.
WINDS EXTENSION HAS BEEN ESTIMATED THANKS TO 1742Z ASCAT METOP SWATH.

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[Fadil]

Madagascar in deep trouble!!

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