Nice low near Azore island

[Squarethecircle]

Correction: 2005 showed that anything was possible in 2005.

[HURAKAN]

I agree that although this system may look very interesting, nothing named will come out of it. Still, the Atlantic has had a storm in every month at some point in its history, and this means that a storm in February is certainly possible, not likely, but possible.

[HURAKAN]

Latest! Nothing new.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Latest! Nothing new.

Looks like a low on an occluded front to me, but I could be wrong.

[Crostorm]

[HurricaneRobert]

It's better looking than Andrea, Jerry, and STD10 from last season.

[Ed Mahmoud]

That looks like cold air strato-cu to the West of it. I still say a low on an occlusion, in the cold sector.


Now, IIRC, back around 25 or 30 years ago, when I was on summer vacation in Harwich, MA, a low on an occluded front, theoretically on the cold side of the boundary, eventually took on tropical chatrecteristics as the front washed out. Of course, it was hurricane season, and it was over the Gulf Stream. I think it was called 'Charley', so it may have been 1980.



Darn, my memory is good.



Ouch, just pulled a muscle patting myself on the back.

[Cryomaniac]

:uarrow: Correction: 2005 showed that anything was possible in 2005.

So nothing like that will ever happen again? I'm all for positive thinking, but come on, we dont know what's going to happen, '08 could be another 2005 or it could be 1983. As I said, pretty much anything is possible in any given year.

[Squarethecircle]

Something will eventually happen like it again, but nothing similar for the next few hundred years in my estimate. We might have some more 1950s though.

[Cryomaniac]

:uarrow: Something will eventually happen like it again, but nothing similar for the next few hundred years in my estimate. We might have some more 1950s though.

I still think "a few hundered years" is wishful thinking, 50 maybe.

[Coredesat]

The system has pretty much fallen apart. It was definitely an occluded frontal low, given the presence of stable air behind it.

[george_r_1961]

It never had a chance no matter how good it looked. If this was December I might give this a second glance.

For a tropical cyclone to form you need sustained deep convection and instability(and u need the latter to get the former) and you arent gonna get either one in that part of the basin in February. Given the right conditions I can see something like this acquiring tropical or subtropical features if it were over the gulf stream or the Carribean.

In another 4 to 6 weeks I may not be so quick to brush off something like this.

[RL3AO]

I don't think anyone ever implied that it might become a TC

[Squarethecircle]

THAT would be hilarious.

[littlevince]

Maybe it's not over yet. What do you think ? Just a swirl with convenction?


http://www.sat24.com/frame.php?html=homepage


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 806/6.html

[Coredesat]

Clearly frontal.

[Squarethecircle]

Meh, pretty much.

It's over, I guess. Fun while it lasted.

[littlevince]

Clearly frontal.

Ok, thank you for your response.
Anyway, just for the record, the weather indirectly associated with this low has left 3 deaths this morning in Lisbon/Portugal with 136mm rain fall in 6 hours. You can see much convection over Lisbon area in the picture I posted before.