SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

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Extremeweatherguy
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#801 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Feb 15, 2008 11:02 pm

Nice lightning show and some moderate rain associated with the storm off to my west right now, but nothing severe yet. By tomorrow afternoon though, all bets are off.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA - Severe outbreak Saturday!

#802 Postby r22weiss » Fri Feb 15, 2008 11:10 pm

got .12 inches of rain in Katy from that quick little cell.
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#803 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Feb 15, 2008 11:31 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1028 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 1115 PM CST

* AT 1022 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR THE WOODLANDS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
THE WOODLANDS...
PORTER HEIGHTS...
CONROE...
CUT AND SHOOT...

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
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#804 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Feb 15, 2008 11:38 pm

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1034 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2008

TXC339-160515-
/O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-080216T0515Z/
MONTGOMERY TX-
1034 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MONTGOMERY COUNTY
UNTIL 1115 PM CST...

AT 1032 PM CST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
PENNY SIZE HAIL IN THE WOODLANDS AT 1030 PM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER THE WOODLANDS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
THE WOODLANDS...
PORTER HEIGHTS...
CONROE...
CUT AND SHOOT...

THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE
PROPERTY DAMAGE OR SERIOUS INJURY. AVOID WINDOWS AND TAKE COVER...
NOW!
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: SE TX/SW LA - Severe outbreak Saturday!

#805 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Feb 15, 2008 11:40 pm

Still looks ominous early afternoon near the ice cream factory (ie, Brenham)

Image


Even spookier looking for DW Hooks, closest airport to my house (well, IAH is about the same distance) late afternoon.

Image

The main line should be about here at that time, if I am eyeballing the 6 hour accumulated precip correctly.

Image
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Re: SE TX/SW LA - Severe outbreak Saturday!

#806 Postby Tireman4 » Fri Feb 15, 2008 11:44 pm

Pretty heavy rain in Humble with lightning to the north. This is just a harbinger of things to come.
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#807 Postby RL3AO » Fri Feb 15, 2008 11:44 pm

Image

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 160438Z - 160615Z

A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ONGOING IN SE TX MAY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AS STORMS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE HAIL WOULD
LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY.

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
SWWD FROM EAST TX TO NEAR SAN ANTONIO AND A MOIST AXIS EXISTS AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS. SEVERAL ROTATING
STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE MOIST AXIS AND THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN SUSTAINED EWD INTO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE NEWD INTO SE TX AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE A THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE STORMS
MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DUE TO A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION SHOWN BY
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT
MARGINAL IN SPITE OF THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

..BROYLES.. 02/16/2008
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Re: SE TX/SW LA - Severe outbreak Saturday!

#808 Postby jasons2k » Fri Feb 15, 2008 11:45 pm

Lots of lighting here and the power flickered a bit, but nothing severe.

Busy though:

Image
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: SE TX/SW LA - Severe outbreak Saturday!

#809 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Feb 15, 2008 11:47 pm

Not SE Texas, but public reporting quarter sized hail with a severe t-storm 9 miles North of Abilene.


It is 30ºF (-1ºC) at ABI
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#810 Postby RL3AO » Fri Feb 15, 2008 11:47 pm

Great looking cell in Sabine County
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#811 Postby mattpetre » Fri Feb 15, 2008 11:51 pm

Does it really matter if it rains much tonight as far as reducing the risks of storms tomorrow? I know there are cases where previous rain will reduce the instability in the atmosphere and reduce temps and such, but I'm guessing that with this type of setup that the rains tonight don't really effect the chances of big storms tomorrow. Is this pretty much true?
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Re:

#812 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Feb 15, 2008 11:58 pm

mattpetre wrote:Does it really matter if it rains much tonight as far as reducing the risks of storms tomorrow? I know there are cases where previous rain will reduce the instability in the atmosphere and reduce temps and such, but I'm guessing that with this type of setup that the rains tonight don't really effect the chances of big storms tomorrow. Is this pretty much true?
Usually that would be true, but in this case I do not think it matters much. There will be plenty of lift as the upper level system and front approach, and since the atmosphere is so unstable (and will become more unstable tomorrow), storms will likely have no problem generating and going severe right on through the day tomorrow.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re:

#813 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Feb 16, 2008 12:02 am

mattpetre wrote:Does it really matter if it rains much tonight as far as reducing the risks of storms tomorrow? I know there are cases where previous rain will reduce the instability in the atmosphere and reduce temps and such, but I'm guessing that with this type of setup that the rains tonight don't really effect the chances of big storms tomorrow. Is this pretty much true?



A storm complex in the Gulf would tend to intercept moisture, and stabilize the air coming in through convective overturning, but with these storms forming so close to HOU, and this severe scenario is driven by cold temps aloft and strong wind dynamics, the slight cooling/stabilization wouldn't help much.

That said, if it stays cloudy and rainy tomorrow South of the front, well, every bit helps as far as maybe minimizing storm potential.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA - Severe outbreak Saturday!

#814 Postby TexasSam » Sat Feb 16, 2008 12:11 am

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1046 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 PM HAIL THE WOODLANDS 30.16N 95.49W
02/15/2008 E0.75 INCH MONTGOMERY TX PUBLIC

HAIL REPORTED AT THE WOODLANDS MALL.
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#815 Postby Yankeegirl » Sat Feb 16, 2008 12:18 am

Just got back from getting my niece in Brookshire, the rain was coming down in sheets! and the lightning was a beautiful shade of purple! But all is quiet now..... for now....
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#816 Postby southerngale » Sat Feb 16, 2008 12:39 am

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC291-160600-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0020.080216T0528Z-080216T0600Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1128 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST

* AT 1126 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR DAISETTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM
HAS THE HISTORY OF PRODUCING NEAR PENNY SIZE HAIL.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EASTERN LIBERTY COUNTY...

THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE
PROPERTY DAMAGE OR SERIOUS INJURY. AVOID WINDOWS AND TAKE COVER NOW!

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3011 9449 3000 9461 3006 9471 3012 9462
3013 9461 3013 9450 3012 9449
TIME...MOT...LOC 0528Z 219DEG 23KT 3006 9462
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Re: SE TX/SW LA - Severe outbreak Saturday!

#817 Postby southerngale » Sat Feb 16, 2008 12:44 am

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC199-245-160615-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0015.080216T0541Z-080216T0615Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1141 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUR LAKE...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NOME...

* UNTIL 1215 AM CST

* AT 1134 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF NOME...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SOUR LAKE BY 1155 PM CST...

LAT...LON 3016 9422 3002 9441 3007 9448 3009 9447
3010 9448 3010 9452 3014 9458 3029 9449
TIME...MOT...LOC 0541Z 216DEG 24KT 3012 9451
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#819 Postby southerngale » Sat Feb 16, 2008 1:21 am

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC199-160645-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0016.080216T0617Z-080216T0645Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1217 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SILSBEE...LUMBERTON...KOUNTZE...

* UNTIL 1245 AM CST

* AT 1212 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF LUMBERTON...OR ABOUT 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SOUR LAKE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KOUNTZE BY 1230 AM CST...
LUMBERTON BY 1235 AM CST...
SILSBEE BY 1240 AM CST...

LAT...LON 3027 9410 3023 9412 3012 9436 3028 9447
3043 9422
TIME...MOT...LOC 0617Z 240DEG 22KT 3025 9432
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#820 Postby southerngale » Sat Feb 16, 2008 2:20 am

Latest from SPC

Categorical
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Tornado
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Hail
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Wind
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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

If you're interested in reading the text...
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2008

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL
TX...MID/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN...TO E-CENTRAL TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM PORTIONS
W-CENTRAL/SW TX TO LOWER TX COAST...ARKLATEX REGION...MUCH OF
LA...AND WRN MS....

OUTBREAK OF SVR TSTMS -- PERHAPS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES -- APPEARS MOST PROBABLE FROM S-CENTRAL TX
ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN INTO E TX DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WINDS SHOULD BE COMMON WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL ALSO MAY OCCUR.

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN UPPER AIR FEATURE FOR THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE UPPER LOW -- NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER EXTREME SERN AZ. THIS
CYCLONE IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS LOWER PECOS VALLEY BEFORE TURNING
NEWD OVER ERN OK LATE IN PERIOD..IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SEWD ACROSS PACIFIC NW.

AT SFC...COMPLEX PATTERN SHOWS THREE MAIN FEATURES ATTM...
1. ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE -- ANALYZED INITIALLY FROM ARKLATEX REGION
SWWD ACROSS CLL/SAT AREAS TO FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE BETWEEN
COT-DRT...THEN SWWD INTO MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL COAHUILA. THIS FRONT
IS FCST TO PIVOT CYCLONICALLY EARLY IN PERIOD...MOVING SEWD ACROSS
RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHILE RETREATING SLIGHTLY NWWD OVER CENTRAL/N TX.
THIS WILL OCCUR AS LEESIDE LOW -- INITIALLY OVER NERN
MEX...MOVES/REFORMS NEWD OVER N-CENTRAL TX. BY 17/00-03Z TIME
FRAME...WELL-DEFINED SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER SERN OK WITH FRONT
MOVING EWD/SEWD OVER E-CENTRAL TX AND COASTAL BEND REGION. BY
17/12Z...EXPECT OCCLUDED/STACKED CYCLONE FROM SFC-500 MB OVER MO
OZARKS...COLD FRONT SWD ACROSS LA AND NWRN GULF.
2. DRYLINE...DIFFICULT TO LOCATE PRECISELY ATTM BUT EVIDENT OVER
PIEDMONT REGION BETWEEN MEX SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE AND RIO
GRANDE. THIS FEATURE MAY MOVE E OF RIO GRANDE THROUGH EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON...OVER PORTIONS DEEP S TX...BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY COLD
FRONT.
3. MARINE WARM FRONT...ANALYZED INITIALLY FROM ABOUT 125 SSW
MSY...JUST S OF GLS...TO FAYETTE COUNTY TX...INTERSECTING ARCTIC
BOUNDARY ABOUT 40 NNE VCT. THIS DENOTES NRN EDGE OF HIGH THETAE
GULF AIR WITH DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F. WARM FRONT SHOULD
LIFT NWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE TX FASTER THAN OVER SWRN LA. THIS
WILL CAUSE TRIANGULAR WEDGE OF RICHEST WARM SECTOR AIR TO LIFT NWD
ACROSS E TX BEFORE COLD FROPA. WARM SECTOR EXPANSION FARTHER NE
OVER LA AND ARKLATEX REGION PROBABLY WILL BE IMPEDED/PREVENTED BY
CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

...S-CENTRAL TX TO SWRN LA...WARM SECTOR...
GREATEST COVERAGE OF TSTMS IS FCST INVOF COLD FRONT WHERE LINEAR
EVOLUTION SHOULD TAKE PLACE...CHARACTERIZED BY SWWD BACKBUILDING
WITH TIME. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWS WILL POSE RISK OF BOTH DAMAGING
WIND AND TORNADOES...ALONG WITH HAIL. TRANSITION OF INFLOW PARCELS
FROM SFC-BASED TO ELEVATED MAY BE GRADUAL AND NEBULOUS ACROSS
DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE...SO TORNADO/WIND PROBABILITIES ARE DRAWN
TO ALLOW CONSIDERABLE NWD TOLERANCE FOR WARM SECTOR EXPANSION OVER E
TX.

POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY DISCRETE/ROTATING TSTMS WILL BE GREATEST
ALONG SWRN/TAIL END OF CONVECTIVE BAND...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER INFLOW
IS MOST UNDISTURBED AND AVAILABLE BUOYANCY RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED.
SUCH TSTMS...AS WELL AS ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE WARM SECTOR
CONVECTION...MAY PRODUCE STRONG TORNADOES. EXPECT INFLOW
ENVIRONMENT OF RICH MOISTURE...LOW LCL...50-60 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR...AND VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH COMMONLY ABOVE 350
J/KG.

MAIN UNCERTAINTIES ATTM INVOLVE INITIATION AND COVERAGE OF ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION S OF FRONT...AND ALONG OR E OF POSSIBLE
DRYLINE. PLUME OF ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
THIS REGION THROUGHOUT DAYLIGHT HOURS...ENHANCING LAPSE RATES AND
CAPE...BUT ALSO SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR CAPPING TO SUPPRESS
PREFRONTAL DEVELOPMENT. LATE IN PERIOD...GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL
SHOULD SHRINK SEWD IN AREAL EXTENT ACROSS LA...AND DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
IN MAGNITUDE...DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES STILL WILL SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL/BOW POTENTIAL OVER WARM
SECTOR.

...W-CENTRAL/NW TX...NW OF ARCTIC FRONT...
SCATTERED TSTMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL SHOULD BE ONGOING
AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NW TX. FARTHER
W...LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD MOVE
INTO W-CENTRAL TX AROUND BEGINNING OF PERIOD...BECOMING INCREASINGLY
JUXTAPOSED WITH WRN PORTIONS OF ELEVATED WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION
REGIME IN LOW LEVELS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TSTMS IN
GENERALLY N-S ALIGNED BAND...SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION.
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL THETAE WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT
SOME MUCAPE VALUES 500-1000 J/KG...AMIDST FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH LINEAR MODE SHOULD
PREDOMINATE...HAIL MAY OCCUR FROM SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.

...ARKLATEX REGION...
NRN SEGMENT OF FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND -- N OF MARINE BOUNDARY --
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STG GUSTS AS IT MOVES INTO SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED PLUME OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY OVER SERN OK...SRN
AR...PORTIONS NRN/NERN LA AND EXTREME NE TX. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES
ALOFT MAY BE WEAKER THAN FARTHER W...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG...WITH 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR.

..EDWARDS/HURLBUT.. 02/16/2008
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