SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[Crostorm]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND ERN TX/EXTREME SRN OK/WRN AND SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 160709Z - 160815Z

ELEVATED TSTMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FROM NRN TX INTO EXTREME SRN OK AND SEWD
ACROSS E TX TO LA. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW
WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. TSTMS OVER SE TX ARE LOCATED
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MAY HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SURFACE BASED WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A LARGE ARCING AREA OF ONGOING TSTMS
EXTENDING FROM NW/N TX SEWD INTO E TX/LA. AREA WSR-88D VADS AND
WIND PROFILERS SHOWED VERY FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR ROTATING STORMS
AS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AND CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/
ERN TX AND WRN/SWRN LA. SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM S TX...JUST
SE DRT...ENEWD INTO SE TX WITH A MARINE BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDING FROM
SE TX TO OFFSHORE OF LA. DESPITE SHORT WAVE RIDGING CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS OK/TX/LA...JUST DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER LOW/TROUGH IN THE
SWRN STATES...STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ FROM S TX TO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY COMBINED WITH DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN UVVS FOR
ADDITIONAL TSTMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATED
MUCAPE VALUES AOA 500 J/KG EXTENDING FROM NW TO SE TX/FAR SWRN LA.
THUS...LLJ WILL MAINTAIN INFLOW OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INTO SRN
EXTENT OF ONGOING ARC OF TSTMS AND COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR AROUND 50 KT SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
ELEVATED ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL AS PRIMARY THREAT.

..PETERS.. 02/16/2008

[Extremeweatherguy]

Showers and storms have cleared out some now from the Houston area, and now we sit and patiently wait for the main event. It will definitely be an interesting day out there, especially in the MODERATE risk zone around SE Texas (including metro Houston), and I am sure it is only a matter of time before we see our first tornado warning of the event.

Stay safe everyone!

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
336 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING

THE STRONG S/WV RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHTS STORMS HAS EXITED THE
REGION. SOUTHEAST TEXAS LIES (LITERALLY) IN THE CALM BEFORE THE
STORM. A COMPLICATED SURFACE CHART THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF GALVESTON TO COLUMBUS TO COTULLA TO LOW
PRESSURE WEST OF LAREDO. A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
HONDO TO HUNTSVILLE TO ALEXANDRIA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
PARIS TO WACO TO JUNCTION. AM EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO TREK
NORTH TODAY WITH THE PRECIPITATION FOCUSING ALONG AND NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. HAVE LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE MORNING
HOURS. STREAMER SHOWERS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL
PERSIST BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD UNTIL
AFTERNOON.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH EAST TEXAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME STRONGLY DIVERGENT
AS THE UPPER LOW AND A 110 KT SPEED MAX APPROACH. SURFACE TO 850
MB CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED CO-INCIDENT WITH THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND MARCH EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 60 KTS AND PW`S RISE TO 1.7
INCHES. ALL THE PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HELICITIES ARE BETWEEN
400-550 WITH LI BETWEEN -4 AND -6. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND A BIT OF AN
INVERTED V SOUNDING. JUST TREMENDOUS WIND ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WILL MENTION ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE ZFP TO STRESS HOW DANGEROUS
THIS WEATHER EVENT WILL BE. DON`T THINK HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A BIG
THREAT AS STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS BUT WITH PW`S
AT UNSEASONABLY HIGH LEVELS...THERE WILL BE SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT TRAINING OF STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE INLAND THIS MORNING BUT THE ZFP ALREADY READS
LIKE A NOVEL SO ONLY MENTIONED FOG FOR GALVESTON AS SEA FOG WILL
LIKELY PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE
TO THE WARM START AND LIMITED RAINFALL DURING THE MORNING.

WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOME WEST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND FINALLY NORTHWEST BY
EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION DOES NOT SET IN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK QUIET AND SEASONAL.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH KICKS OUT NEGATIVELY TILTED ON
THURSDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WED/THU. WEAK TROFFINESS
REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY.

[KatDaddy]

Hola EWG

I am rested and ready for this event.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
459 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-
171100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
459 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

...SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO
TORNADOES...FREQUENT LIGHTNING... LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...
AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. DISCREET SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE
COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THROUGH TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES ALSO
POSSIBLE. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A QUICK PACE SO HEAVY RAIN
WILL PRODUCE ONLY LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREA AND OTHER
POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BEGIN BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM WEST OF A VICTORIA TO MADISONVILLE LINE.
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL SPREAD EAST AND AFFECT THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM AND AREAS ALONG THE COAST
BETWEEN 8 AND 11 PM. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
EVENT WILL BE GREATER THAN THE AREA HAS SEEN DURING RECENT EVENTS.

RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY ABREAST OF THE
RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. IF OUTDOORS...KEEP
AN EYE ON THE SKY. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...NEWS MEDIA...
INTERNET...AND OTHER WEATHER INFORMATION SOURCES. BE PREPARED TO
ACT QUICKLY IF SEVERE TORNADOES OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN
YOUR AREA.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The new SWODY1 was written by Corfidi. I am not really certain exactly who he is, but I'm pretty sure they named the "Corfidi Vector" after him. So he is probably pretty senior. And/or pretty good. Like the Stacy Stewart of the SPC.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN/SRN TX AND
WRN/SRN LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX INTO THE LWR MS
VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW NOW NEAR ELP WILL CONTINUE E/ENE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
WEST TX TODAY...BEFORE ACCELERATING NE TOWARD THE MO OZARKS
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...LOOSELY-CONSOLIDATED LOW NOW
FORMING ALONG STALLED FRONT IN S CNTRL TX EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND
DEVELOP NNE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. THE LOW SHOULD
REACH THE PRX AREA BY EVENING AS DIFFUSE MARITIME WARM FRONT...NOW
EXTENDING NW/SE ACROSS SE TX...LIFTS N INTO CNTRL LA. THE LOW
SHOULD CONTINUE NNE INTO CNTRL MO BY 12Z SUNDAY AS INCREASING WLY
FLOW S OF LOW ACCELERATES ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT E/SE INTO WRN
TN/CNTRL MS AND SE LA.

...ERN/SRN TX INTO WRN/SRN LA...
SEASONABLY WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR WILL BE PRESENT TODAY E OF SFC
FRONT NOW STALLING ALONG A NNE/SSW AXIS E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR OVER
SRN AND ERN TX. THIS RICH BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL EXTEND NE TO
VICINITY OF DIFFUSE WARM FRONT NOW NEAR CLL/BPT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND EXISTING EML DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPR LOW LIKELY WILL KEEP MOST OF REGION CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH TIME...HOWEVER...
COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND POSSIBLY IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF NNE/SSW FRONT AS THAT BOUNDARY BEGINS TO ACCELERATE E AS A
COLD FRONT...AND SBCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG.

WITH 500 MB SSW FLOW INCREASING TO AOA 60 KTS AND 50 KT SLY FLOW
PERSISTING JUST ABOVE THE SFC...SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF BACK-BUILDING BANDS OF SUPERCELLS THAT SHOULD FAIRLY
QUICKLY MERGE INTO AN EXTENSIVE SQLN. EMBEDDED STORMS WITHIN THESE BANDS COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DESTRUCTIVE OUTFLOW WINDS...GIVEN LONG/HOOKED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 350 M2/S2. LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON SRN END OF SQLN IN S CNTRL TX...WHERE SBCAPE SHOULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG. A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT WOULD ALSO EXIST WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT FORM IN AREA OF WEAKENING CIN IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SQLN.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LIKELY TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
SQLN DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS LA...THE THREAT FOR HIGH WIND AND
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES COULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN AND SRN LA.

...W CNTRL/NW TX...
SCTD ELEVATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM NW TO S CNTRL TX
THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTN IN AREA OF WAA/ASCENT ON WRN EDGE OF
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ. SUFFICIENT MUCAPE /AOA 500 J PER KG/ SHOULD
REMAIN PRESENT TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED
HAIL...UNTIL MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED STORMS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/STRENGTH FARTHER TO THE E A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.
STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY CLOUD-LAYER FLOW SHOULD ORGANIZE THE
STORMS INTO N-S BACK-BUILDING BANDS. THESE STRUCTURES COULD YIELD A
FEW CORRIDORS OF HEAVY RAIN IN AREAS AT OR CLOSE TO FREEZING.

...NE TX INTO SE OK/AR...
STORMS IN NRN SEGMENT OF FRONTAL SQLN...N OF DIFFUSE MARITIME
FRONT...COULD YIELD LARGE HAIL AND STG GUSTS AS THEY MOVE NNE WITHIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED PLUME OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY/MOISTURE OVER SE
OK...SRN/CNTRL AR...NRN LA AND EXTREME NE TX. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES
ALOFT MAY BE WEAKER THAN FARTHER SW...RICH MOISTURE SHOULD
SUPPORT MUCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...WITH 45-55 KT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR AS
EJECTING UPR SYSTEM ASSUMES AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT.

...LA/WRN MS THIS MORNING...
A FEW SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL/NRN LA AND SW MS...IN WAA ZONE NE OF
MARITIME FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT NWD AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPR LOW. SEE UPCOMING MCD FOR MORE DETAILS.

..CORFIDI.. 02/16/2008

[Ed Mahmoud]

Tornado Warning


TORNADO WARNING
LAC037-077-125-161315-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0025.080216T1244Z-080216T1315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
644 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN EAST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...
CENTRAL POINTE COUPEE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN WEST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ST. FRANCISVILLE...

* UNTIL 715 AM CST

* AT 639 AM CST...LAW ENFORCEMENT IN POINTEE COUPEE PARISH REPORTED
A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR MORGANZA...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEW
ROADS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PENNY SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. SEEK SAFE
SHELTER NOW!

LAT...LON 3086 9121 3070 9125 3068 9166 3083 9168
TIME...MOT...LOC 1244Z 266DEG 33KT 3076 9153

[jasons2k]

I'm ready too.

Here is the public outbreak statement from the SPC:

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS

SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...EASTERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW APPROACHING WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK EAST
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING NORTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

AHEAD OF THE LOW...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF TEXAS AND MUCH OF
LOUISIANA.

A BAND OF JET STREAM WINDS...WITH SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH...
WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST TEXAS LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
EASTWARD.

THE COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WINDS...DAYTIME HEATING
AND RICH MOISTURE INFLOW WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LONG-LIVED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS KNOWN AS
SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS LIKELY WILL ORGANIZE INTO AN EXTENSIVE
NORTH-SOUTH LINE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS LATER TODAY...BEFORE CONTINUING EAST INTO LOUISIANA TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DESTRUCTIVE OUTFLOW WINDS AND VERY LARGE
HAIL.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

[r22weiss]

Corpus sounding from 12Z. One of the best soundings i have seen in SE TX. When the cap breaks, watch out!

[wbug1]

Tornado Warning


TORNADO WARNING
LAC037-077-125-161315-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0025.080216T1244Z-080216T1315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
644 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN EAST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...
CENTRAL POINTE COUPEE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN WEST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ST. FRANCISVILLE...

* UNTIL 715 AM CST

* AT 639 AM CST...LAW ENFORCEMENT IN POINTEE COUPEE PARISH REPORTED
A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR MORGANZA...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEW
ROADS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PENNY SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. SEEK SAFE
SHELTER NOW!

LAT...LON 3086 9121 3070 9125 3068 9166 3083 9168
TIME...MOT...LOC 1244Z 266DEG 33KT 3076 9153

That one large cell ENE of Baton Rouge, LA is clearly intense with 55-60 dbz echos. DId I see a hook, seems to be gone now. Just looked at it a few minutes ago.

[jeff]

Soundings are loaded awaiting the trigger. It is going to be a rough afternoon over the coastal bend into SE TX and SW LA.

[JenBayles]

FXUS64 KHGX 161602
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1002 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

NOT MANY CHGS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT EDGED
INTO THE WESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING...SO ADJUSTED TEMPS/DW
PTS ACROSS THIS AREA. EXPECT IT TO RETREAT A LITTLE TO THE
WEST THIS AFT AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE THIS AFT AND THIS
EVENING. THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING DOES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT CAP IN
PLACE AND THIS IS PREVENTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT ATTM. THIS CAP WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE DURING THE AFT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES AND THE MID LAYERS COOL AND DIFFLUENCE INCREASES OVER
THE AREA. ONCE THE CAP ERODES...WILL LIKE SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS
DEVELOP EAST OF THE DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RIPE FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES...HAIL...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MAIN SVR WX THREAT PD FOR SE TX
APPEARS TO BE FROM 2 PM-10 PM. 33
&&

[njweather]

Damn, this looks serious...

Anyone know if South Houston (Pearland, Angleton, Alvin, Freeport etc.) will be more or less likely to experience extreme weather than other areas in Houston?

[Tireman4]

I have one question. I have to teach a class HCC-SE (I45 South and Loop 610..near Gulfgate) at 1 pm. In your opinion, should I roll through my lectures and let them go as soon as I finish ( which I would hope would be 3 pm) or just let it go all the way to 5 pm? Will I be stuck in the crossfire either way I go?


THE MAIN SVR WX THREAT PD FOR SE TX
APPEARS TO BE FROM 2 PM-10 PM.

Edited from HGX AFD

Well crud. I am stuck either way.

[Ptarmigan]

The calm before the storm. First there will be individual thunderstorms that may produce tornadoes. Than the squall line forms which produces heavy rain and strong wind. I expect a lot of lightning and thunder out of it.

[r22weiss]

The problem with the forecast is the low cloud cover currently over much of SE TX. This will keep the cap strong till this afternoon when the Upper Level support arrives. It looks like showers are forming below the cap, not unusual for SE TX.
My guess is that we will see some storms start to form after 3pm.

[JenBayles]

I saw an ariticle in the Houston Chronicle this morning about this storm event. HISD took it seriously and canceled all sporting events with the exception one early football game. Don't know that I've ever heard of that happening before...

[JenBayles]

Tireman - do you have internet access in your lecture room? It would help if you could track that squall line and make your decision based on what you see. All you can do is make your students aware that this could be a very serious weather event and to plan accordingly. Maybe even review with the class about the procedure for taking shelter in your building if a tornado warning is issued. Depending on the situation, it might be safer to shelter in place until the system passes.

[southerngale]

Instead of SPC moving the Moderate Risk area further west, they moved it further east, and now I'm completely in it! I'm not usually very nervous when we're in a Slight Risk, but I am a bit nervous being in a Moderate Risk. It doesn't happen very often here.


Here's the latest SPC maps:


Categorical




Tornado




Hail




Wind



And for those who want to read the text:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN TX INTO WRN
LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...

...SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
COMPLEX FORECAST CONTINUES TO UNFOLD THIS MORNING AS SEASONABLY
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS INTO SWRN TX. THIS WILL DRIVE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT
EJECTS ENEWD OVER THE REGION. SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG OVER MUCH
OF THIS AREA AS 90+ KT H5 AND 120 KT H25 JETS SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
TX.

ENHANCED ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS INCREASING DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION ABOVE A SURFACE STABLE LAYER OVER W-CENTRAL/NWRN TX THIS
MORNING. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...DESPITE THE ELEVATED NATURE...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL /REFERENCE SWOMCD 240/. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF EWD MOVING SYSTEM...WITH
SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.

AT 15Z...LEADING EDGE OF COOL STABLE AIR HAS SEEPED WELL EAST OF
I-35 AND SFC COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM LOW CENTER NEAR COT NNEWD
TO JUST SE OF CLL AND THEN NNWWD TO A WEAKER LOW CENTER SE OF DAL.
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE/DEEPEN INTO NERN TX THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND ALLOW RICH GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NWD ACROSS THE
TX COASTAL PLAIN TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX BY 00Z. COMBINATION OF
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WITHIN WARM SECTOR AND STRONG CINH FROM
PRONOUNCE ELEVATED-MIXED LAYER WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR WARM SECTOR
STORMS TODAY. MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOB 1000 J/KG FROM SERN TX
NWD...WITH MODERATE MLCAPE AND STRONG CAP INTO SRN TX. ROBUST WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPMENT MAY AWAIT DEEP...FORCED ASCENT AROUND 21Z FROM
PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO WRN PARTS OF THE TX COASTAL
PLAIN...WHICH WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY NNEWD INTO ERN TX THROUGH 00Z.
PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THIS STRENGTHENING
LINE OF STORMS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN AN
ENHANCED RISK OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE UPPER
TX COAST. HOWEVER...OVERALL MODE SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO A
FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE DURING THE EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN TX INTO WRN LA BEFORE SYSTEM
INGESTS WEAKER INSTABILITY OVER LA. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT
/INCLUDING THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES/ WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

..EVANS.. 02/16/2008

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[JenBayles]

Hubby was checking out TWC and told me they have reporters stationed in College Station for this storm. Yikes!

[Diva]

Yep, southerngale....I'm officially nervous too! So much so that I just went and cleaned out the master bedroom walk-in closet so the whole family will have room to get in there if necessary. That, and I'm eating Cheetos!! lol I normally only eat that junk in abundance when I'm nervous.
I'm watching anxiously......