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Diva wrote:Yep, southerngale....I'm officially nervous too! So much so that I just went and cleaned out the master bedroom walk-in closet so the whole family will have room to get in there if necessary. That, and I'm eating Cheetos!! lol I normally only eat that junk in abundance when I'm nervous.
I'm watching anxiously......
Lake Wind Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
102 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...
.A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOPS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.
LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ201-215-216-170315-
/O.EXT.KLCH.LW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-080217T0600Z/
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-HARDIN-
JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE CHARLES...JENNINGS...CROWLEY...
LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...
MORGAN CITY...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
102 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
721 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-162145-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
721 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS TODAY AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
BECAUSE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED AREAS WEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO CAMERON LINE UNDER A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. MEANWHILE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 9 PM AND
MIDNIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ORGANIZE INTO A
SQUALL LINE AND RACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING...AND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS...
DAMAGING WINDS...
SINCE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY STRONG WINDS IN THE LOWER
AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LONG LIVED DAMAGING DOWN-BURST WINDS.
TORNADOES...
THERE WILL BE SOME TURING OF THE WINDS FROM THE LOWER LEVELS TO
THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
HEAVY RAINFALL...
VERY MOIST GULF AIR WILL FEED THE THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...RAINFALL
RATES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
STREETS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.
$$
RUA
JenBayles wrote:I just checked the sat loop, and it appears that squall line is beginning to get its act together out west. I've got some friends coming over in a couple hours and really hope we all don't end up crammed in our interior hallway with the dogs and the birds!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0242
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...WRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 162000Z - 162130Z
A TORNADO WATCH APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX COASTAL
PLAIN...AND PERHAPS INTO WRN LA...WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO INCREASE AND EXPAND EWD FROM
PARTS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL TX TO SERN TX OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A
STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS NEWD FROM THE BIG BEND AREA. POTENT
MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS...CHARACTERIZED BY 70-90KT SWLY 500MB
FLOW...WILL SPREAD EAST ATOP CONFLUENT SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF
30-40KT TO RESULT IN A VERY FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR
ROTATING STORMS/MESOCYCLONES. GIVEN INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION...STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING.
AT PRESENT...MUCH OF WARM SECTOR AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED AS
INDICATED IN 18Z CRP SOUNDING. THIS CAPPING IS ALSO EVIDENT IN
WIDESPREAD SC CLOUD DECK OBSERVED IN SATL IMAGERY. HOWEVER...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FORCING ALONG THE STRONGLY CONVERGENT SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE INTERSECTION...OVER WILSON COUNTY...AND
APPROACH OF MID/UPPER TROUGH...WILL EFFECTIVELY ERODE THE CAP AND
LEAD TO SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN DEGREE
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR/HELICITY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...INITIALLY
DISCRETE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP MESOCYCLONES. TORNADO POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING PRIOR TO MORE LINEAR
STRUCTURE EVOLVING AS COLD FRONT STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS EAST.
..CARBIN.. 02/16/2008
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
214 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
.DISCUSSION...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS
VIGOROUS MID LEVEL LOW NOW ENTERING WEST TEXAS ADVANCES NORTHEAST
INTO WEST MISSOURI. MODELS SHOWING DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPING WITH MID LEVEL FEATURE.
FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH A PRONOUNCED SEVERE POSSIBILITY.
SQUALL LINE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT REACHING THE
WESTERN PORTION OF FCST AREA NEAR 9 PM...ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER
INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXITING THE
EASTERN PORTION OF REGION JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. ALREADY SEEING
RESPECTABLE WIND PROFILES FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT PER 18Z
SPECIAL UPPER AIR SOUNDING WITH KINEMATICS ONLY TO INCREASE AS
WEST TEXAS SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTHEAST TREK. SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING
SOMEWHAT DECEPTIVE WITH PW`S DROPPING TO NEAR 0.96 INCHES AS SLUG
OF DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH EAST GULF ANTICYCLONE HAS PUNCHED
INTO THE AREA. BELIEVE DRYING WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION WITH
RE-HUMIDIFICATION AS MID LEVEL DRY LAYER EXITS EAST. QUICK LOOK AT
GPS-MET DATA SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT 0.40 INCHES HIGHER
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. CURRENT CAP ALSO IN SOUNDING SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED.
THUS...MAINTAINING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DAMAGING SQUALL LINE
DEVELOPING AND MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AT AROUND 40
MPH. GFS WIND FIELD SUGGESTING AN EXTREME LOW LEVEL JET ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FEATURE AS WELL AS A WELL DEFINED DIVERGENT AXIS ALOFT
ALIGNING WITH CONVECTION. LOOPING HODOGRAPHS DEPICTING 0-1 AND 0-3
KM HELICITY VALUES RANGING FROM 300 TO OVER 500 M2/S2. ANY DISCRETE
CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO FIRE IN PRE-SQUALL LINE ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID MESOCYCLONE TRANSFORMATION AND SEVERE.
THAT CONCLUDES THE DOOM AND GLOOM. SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT
EAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND SHAPING UP WELL. LOOKING FOR SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 60S. SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARRIVING FOR MONDAY AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT PLOWS THROUGH BUT THIS ONE FREE OF ANY
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED BRIEFLY BEFORE A
WARMING RETURN FLOW SETS UP WEDNESDAY WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 58
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL
900 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
VICTORIA TEXAS TO 35 MILES NORTH OF TYLER TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 57...
DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL PERSIST ACROSS DESTABILIZING
WARM SECTOR IN E TX LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES WITH DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND MOVE QUICKLY
NEWD ACROSS WW. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS...EVOLUTION INTO A LARGER LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY WITH
ATTENDANT INCREASE IN DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
RL3AO wrote:
CajunMama wrote:
don't those 2 cloud features resemble the shape of a tornado? or is it just my wacky eyesite and mind
JenBayles wrote:Tireman - do you have internet access in your lecture room? It would help if you could track that squall line and make your decision based on what you see. All you can do is make your students aware that this could be a very serious weather event and to plan accordingly. Maybe even review with the class about the procedure for taking shelter in your building if a tornado warning is issued. Depending on the situation, it might be safer to shelter in place until the system passes.
Bunkertor wrote:southerngale wrote:We have one over here. At the airport, it's already 97° with a heat index of 110° (that was at 12:53 p.m.)
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