SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[PTrackerLA]

97, not looking forward to that kind of heat!!!

It's amazing how fast these storms are blossiming and going severe east of San Antonio. This will probably become the main squall line. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Ed Mahmoud]

The cap never really broke much in the warm sector around HOU, and the cold front is moving through, but Louisiana, farther from the plateaus of Mexico, often has a weaker cap than we do, so the tornado danger there may still be real, IMHO.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, just some heavy rain & thunder here with some gusty winds out of the NW, nothing severe. We lucked out for sure.

[Jagno]

All day today we've been very windy and dry for the daytime hours but it looks as though that will be changing soon enough. Tornado watches, Flood warnings and Severe Storm watches are currently going up across the area. I would have much preferred this type of bad weather during the daytime when I can see instead of at night if it has to come my way. Oh well, the generator is standing by. Stay safe everyone!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I had 0.64" of rain (so far), gusty winds, and perhaps even a pellet or two of pea sized hail, but nothing all that bad or severe. Compared to the tornadoes and the derecho that we could have seen had the cap broken earlier, we REALLY lucked out this time!

[southerngale]

Tornado watch recently issued here. How's the cap looking over here? Since it wasn't too bad for Houston, should the same hold true for us in the Beaumont area?

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 59
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
825 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

TORNADO WATCH 59 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC039-071-157-167-199-201-241-245-291-321-351-361-457-170900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0059.080217T0225Z-080217T0900Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRAZORIA CHAMBERS FORT BEND
GALVESTON HARDIN HARRIS
JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY
MATAGORDA NEWTON ORANGE
TYLER
$$

[Yankeegirl]

There really wasnt much of anything here.... It was worse the other night when that front came through....

[southerngale]

he National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Galveston County in southeast Texas
Brazoria County in southeast Texas
Chambers County in southeast Texas
southeast Harris County in southeast Texas
eastern Liberty County in southeast Texas

* until 1000 PM CST

* at 859 PM CST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds in
excess of 60 mph. These storms were located along a line extending
from Moss Hill to Pasadena to 5 miles west of Lake Jackson... moving
southeast at 40 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
Johnson space center...
Webster...
Richwood...
Liberty...
Taylor Lake Village...
Shoreacres...
Richwood...
Nassau Bay...
Kemah boardwalk...
Old River-Winfree...
Baytown...
Clear Lake...
League City...
Texas City...
Alvin...
Angleton...
Freeport...
Galveston...
Anahuac...
Winnie...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 am CST Sunday morning for
southeast Texas. Severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes with
little or no advance warning.

Please report severe weather to the County sheriff... local police...
or department of public safety. They will relay your report to the
National Weather Service.

Lat... Lon 3048 9474 3037 9467 3014 9460 3011 9443
2992 9443 2989 9435 2956 9434 2942 9467
2925 9481 2910 9509 2884 9538 2881 9548
2891 9561
time... Mot... loc 0301z 329deg 27kt 3014 9476 2900 9550

[Ed Mahmoud]

I was looking at radar earlier, and because the cap would not break in the warm sector, storms could only form right on the front, and immediately became elevated, and their outflow is probably what helped accelerate the front to the East, further ensuring any storms that did try to form East of the front were quickly undercut. Otherwise, the supercells would have formed, eventually merged, and we would have had storms hitting ahead of the front, fully able to mix down damaging winds.



I'm glad we got some good rain. And it was good reviewing the severe weather plan.


Now, it looks like the cap might break ahead of the front in Lousiana. I haven't checked the soundings (on a back up old and decrepit computer, and usually I go to the Troy Kimmel (an AUS met)'s page for his link to the soundings, and I'm too lazy to search the interweb) but I suspect, as is often the case, the cap is weaker on the LCH sounding.

[southerngale]

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
southern Galveston County in southeast Texas
southern Chambers County in southeast Texas

* until 1015 PM CST

* at 928 PM CST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This tornado
was located near Hitchcock... moving east at 35 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
Tiki Island...
Bayou Vista...
Texas City...
Moody Gardens...
Galveston...
Port Bolivar...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 am CST Sunday morning for
southeast Texas.

Please report severe weather to the County sheriff... local police...
or department of public safety. They will relay your report to the
National Weather Service.

Lat... Lon 2954 9436 2942 9467 2936 9474 2932 9472
2921 9489 2919 9505 2937 9512 2947 9492
2938 9481 2955 9459 2956 9460 2952 9477
2954 9477 2974 9435
time... Mot... loc 0332z 259deg 32kt 2930 9499

[southerngale]

Tornado watch recently issued here. How's the cap looking over here? Since it wasn't too bad for Houston, should the same hold true for us in the Beaumont area.

Anyone know? The storms are getting closer and just wondering if I should be able to relax a little bit as this has been hyped quite a bit. How can I tell if the cap is holding here or not?


(Yes, I'm quoting myself. )

[KLP124]

Wind completely died here 30 miles east of Beaumont. Starting to hear some thunder rumbling.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

looks like the action is beginning for folks to the east of us.......ya'll hang in there.

[Diva]

Tornado watch recently issued here. How's the cap looking over here? Since it wasn't too bad for Houston, should the same hold true for us in the Beaumont area.

Anyone know? The storms are getting closer and just wondering if I should be able to relax a little bit as this has been hyped quite a bit. How can I tell if the cap is holding here or not?


(Yes, I'm quoting myself. )

Yeah, I'd like to know as well. By the looks of the radar, it's gonna be dicey for awhile. I'd like a met to tell me what to expect though.

[southerngale]

Tornado watch recently issued here. How's the cap looking over here? Since it wasn't too bad for Houston, should the same hold true for us in the Beaumont area.

Anyone know? The storms are getting closer and just wondering if I should be able to relax a little bit as this has been hyped quite a bit. How can I tell if the cap is holding here or not?


(Yes, I'm quoting myself. )

Yeah, I'd like to know as well. By the looks of the radar, it's gonna be dicey for awhile. I'd like a met to tell me what to expect though.

All the Houston mets seem to be gone now... no Beaumont ones on... doubt we'll get our answer until it gets here.

[southerngale]

Statement as of 9:47 PM CST on February 16, 2008


... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for east
central Tyler County...

At 944 PM CST... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate a tornado. This tornado was located between Spurger and
Fred... moving northeast at 50 mph.

Seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an interior
hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to cover
your body and always stay away from windows.

If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a
substantial shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the
nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.

Lat... Lon 3060 9408 3060 9410 3057 9413 3058 9416
3058 9418 3072 9425 3079 9418
time... Mot... loc 0347z 245deg 45kt 3066 9409




Edit:
... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 1115 PM CST
for Orange and eastern Jefferson counties...

At 1050 PM CST... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging
winds in excess of 60 mph. These storms were located along a line
extending from sea rim State Park to Nederland and Vidor... moving
east at 60 mph.

Locations in the path of this storm include Port Arthur... Sabine
Pass... Bridge City... Orange... and Mauriceville.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect for the warned area. If a tornado
is spotted... act quickly and move to a place of safety in a sturdy
structure... such as a small interior room.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 am CST Sunday morning for
southwestern Louisiana and southeast Texas.

Lat... Lon 2990 9386 2985 9391 2980 9390 2972 9393
2962 9426 3011 9422 3023 9372
time... Mot... loc 0451z 286deg 62kt 2990 9386 2946 9391

[Ed Mahmoud]

Local KHOU-11 met just showed a closeup of the radar offshore Galveston, besides the shear marker, there was an obvious hook. That will probably come back onshore somewhere near/on Bolivar Peninsula if it holds together.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It looks like our next Severe threat may be as little as 5 days away...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2008

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR IN EVOLUTION OF OVERALL LARGE SCALE UPPER
PATTERN THROUGH DAY 5. CONSENSUS IS TRANSITION TO MORE OR LESS A
SPLIT FLOW WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UNDERCUTTING THE BLOCKY
UPPER RIDGE OVER CANADA AND ADVANCING ESEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND
SRN CONUS. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES DO EXIST WITH DETAILS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES...AND BEYOND ABOUT DAY 5
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLOWER WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO THE SRN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY DAY 5 WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH SLOWER AND LESS
AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF AND MREF MEAN. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF AND MAINTAIN A RISK AREA FOR DAY 5 FROM PARTS OF ERN TX INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR PARTIALLY
MODIFIED GULF AIR TO RETURN NWD AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...AND SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FOR A SEVERE
THREAT IN THIS AREA. GIVEN THE COMPLEX...TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THIS
EVOLVING PATTERN AND UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING DETAILS AND TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL WAVES...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH.

[Jagno]

I spent all day treading through calf deep water in my own yard yesterday. We've had too much rain over the past few months although I am thankful that we've been spared the worst of the storms fury. We will need much more than just 3 days of cool and dry weather to clear up some of this swamp that we're developing but it doesn't look as though mother nature will cooperate. Our next 50% chance of storms are on track for Wednesday.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From the morning Houston AFD...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY AND THIS
FEATURE WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW IS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE LAST
UPPER LOW ON SATURDAY SO IT`S INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER IS
SOMEWHAT SUSPECT. THAT SAID...UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONGLY DIVERGENT AROUND THE UPPER LOW. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDDLE COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE THURSDAY. WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASING AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS...FEEL ITS BEST TO GO
WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN AND NOGAPS ALSO
FOCUSING WIDESPREAD PRECIP ON THURSDAY AND ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH RAIN TOTALS.