HURDAT updated - 1915-1920

[Hurricanehink]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/metadata_19151920_new.html

Finally, the HURDAT best track was updated between 1915 and 1920. Some highlights include a few off-season tropical depressions, eight new tropical storms, the 1919 Florida Keys hurricane being upped to 130 kts, and a Category 4 hurricane in 1916 striking southern Texas.

[CrazyC83]

I would have gone all the way to at least 150 kt for the 1919 storm, if not 155 kt. Thinking that it was a huge, broad storm, my estimate for its lowest pressure is 894mb once over the Loop Current.

When it hit the Dry Tortugas, I think it was in the middle of rapid deepening, and was 927mb and 120 kt at that moment.

At Texas landfall, my estimate is 932mb and 100 kt. I think that 950mb measurement missed the eye. Likewise, the spread of those 940s in the Gulf suggest that I think the eye missed them all. I don't think the standard pressure-wind relationship is valid with this one as like Katrina and Rita I think this had a broad pressure gradient, hence the wild difference (and the wind number seems to be in agreement with the new HURDAT).

Most of my estimates are based on recent trends and how I think those reports would translate themselves.

[MiamiensisWx]

Actually, the 1919 TC was upgraded to 130 kt at the time of the 927 mb reading. I disagree with your opinion that it was 120 kt. Winds translated very quickly to the surface when Camille, Katrina, and Rita rapidly intensified. 130 kt/927 mb seems good for the Dry Tortugas landfall. I think it could have intensified to Category 5 status in the eastern Gulf of Mexico after it left the islands, but there wasn't sufficient data (observations) to warrant an upgrade by the reanalysis project.

Secondly, the 950 mb "measurement" is an estimate (not report) for the TX landfall. There wasn't an actual land barometer that reported 950 mb in TX.

[CrazyC83]

Actually, the 1919 TC was upgraded to 130 kt at the time of the 927 mb reading. I disagree with your opinion that it was 120 kt. Winds translated very quickly to the surface when Camille, Katrina, and Rita rapidly intensified. 130 kt/927 mb seems good for the Dry Tortugas landfall. I think it could have intensified to Category 5 status in the eastern Gulf of Mexico after it left the islands, but there wasn't sufficient data (observations) to warrant an upgrade by the reanalysis project.

Secondly, the 950 mb "measurement" is an estimate (not report) for the TX landfall. There wasn't an actual land barometer that reported 950 mb in TX.

Interesting, that makes it even more likely that the 1919 storm was a Cat 5, as I highly doubt that it was at peak intensity when it hit the Dry Tortugas.

[MiamiensisWx]

It is interesting to note that the reanalysis revealed large errors in the original HURDAT. For example, a 1917 Category 3 hurricane has been upgraded from 100 kt to 130 kt/928 mb at landfall in Cuba. Additionally, the first tropical storm of the 1915 season was increased from 40 kt to 65 kt for its Cape Canaveral, FL landfall. I suspect that similar underestimated (and overestimated) tropical cyclones will be revealed over the next several seasons. I think the reanalysis project's pace will pick up during the year, and results for 1921-1925 may be released very soon...

[CrazyC83]

It is interesting to note that the reanalysis revealed large errors in the original HURDAT. For example, a 1917 Category 3 hurricane has been upgraded from 100 kt to 130 kt/928 mb at landfall in Cuba. Additionally, the first tropical storm of the 1915 season was increased from 40 kt to 65 kt for its Cape Canaveral, FL landfall. I suspect that similar underestimated (and overestimated) tropical cyclones will be revealed over the next several seasons. I think the reanalysis project's pace will pick up during the year, and results for 1921-1925 may be released very soon...

It has been hinted that a 1924 storm will be upgraded to Cat 5...

[CrazyC83]

Here is what I think the 1919 hurricane had for its best track (the positions are the same as the revised BT, the intensities are different):

2/1200 - 16.0/61.0 - 25 kt - 1009mb - Tropical depression
2/1800 - 16.3/62.3 - 30 kt - 1007mb
3/0000 - 16.7/63.6 - 30 kt - 1007mb
3/0600 - 17.1/64.8 - 30 kt - 1006mb
3/1200 - 17.5/66.0 - 35 kt - 1004mb - Tropical storm
3/1800 - 18.0/67.0 - 40 kt - 1002mb
4/0000 - 18.6/68.0 - 45 kt - 1002mb
4/0600 - 19.1/69.0 - 40 kt - 1003mb
4/1200 - 19.5/70.0 - 35 kt - 1005mb
4/1800 - 19.8/70.8 - 35 kt - 1005mb
5/0000 - 20.0/71.6 - 30 kt - 1008mb - Tropical depression
5/0600 - 20.2/72.2 - 30 kt - 1006mb
5/1200 - 20.5/72.5 - 30 kt - 1006mb
5/1800 - 20.9/72.6 - 35 kt - 1005mb - Tropical storm
6/0000 - 21.4/72.6 - 40 kt - 1003mb
6/0600 - 21.8/72.7 - 45 kt - 1001mb
6/1200 - 22.2/72.8 - 45 kt - 1000mb
6/1800 - 22.5/73.1 - 50 kt - 997mb
7/0000 - 22.8/73.5 - 55 kt - 995mb
7/0600 - 23.0/74.0 - 65 kt - 992mb - Hurricane
7/1200 - 23.2/74.5 - 65 kt - 991mb
7/1800 - 23.4/75.1 - 70 kt - 988mb
8/0000 - 23.5/75.8 - 85 kt - 978mb
8/0600 - 23.6/76.5 - 95 kt - 963mb
8/1200 - 23.7/77.3 - 100 kt - 957mb
8/1800 - 23.8/78.1 - 105 kt - 953mb
9/0000 - 23.9/78.9 - 115 kt - 948mb
9/0600 - 24.0/79.7 - 110 kt - 943mb
9/1200 - 24.0/80.5 - 110 kt - 941mb
9/1800 - 24.1/81.3 - 115 kt - 937mb
10/0000 - 24.3/82.1 - 120 kt - 931mb
10/0600 - 24.6/82.8 - 125 kt - 929mb
10/1200 - 24.8/83.4 - 140 kt - 916mb
10/1800 - 24.9/84.0 - 150 kt - 904mb
11/0000 - 25.0/84.5 - 155 kt - 894mb
11/0600 - 25.0/85.0 - 145 kt - 899mb
11/1200 - 25.1/85.5 - 135 kt - 907mb
11/1800 - 25.3/86.1 - 120 kt - 916mb
12/0000 - 25.6/86.7 - 115 kt - 920mb
12/0600 - 25.9/87.3 - 115 kt - 919mb
12/1200 - 26.2/88.0 - 110 kt - 922mb
12/1800 - 26.4/89.0 - 105 kt - 926mb
13/0000 - 26.5/90.0 - 105 kt - 929mb
13/0600 - 26.5/91.0 - 105 kt - 930mb
13/1200 - 26.5/92.0 - 110 kt - 927mb
13/1800 - 26.6/92.9 - 110 kt - 924mb
14/0000 - 26.7/93.8 - 115 kt - 921mb
14/0600 - 26.8/94.6 - 110 kt - 923mb
14/1200 - 27.0/95.5 - 105 kt - 928mb
14/1800 - 27.2/96.6 - 105 kt - 931mb
15/0000 - 27.4/98.0 - 80 kt - 946mb
15/0600 - 27.8/99.5 - 60 kt - 963mb - Tropical storm
15/1200 - 28.2/101.0 - 45 kt - 982mb
15/1800 - 28.9/102.4 - 35 kt - 991mb
16/0000 - 29.7/103.8 - 30 kt - 996mb - Tropical depression
16/0600 - 30.6/105.0 - 25 kt - 999mb
16/1200 - 31.5/106.0 - 20 kt - 1003mb
16/1800 - Dissipated

Landfalls:
10/0700 - 24.6/82.9 - 130 kt - 927mb - Dry Tortugas, FL
14/2100 - 27.2/97.3 - 100 kt - 932mb - S of Corpus Christi, TX

Minimum pressure:
11/0000 - 25.0/84.5 - 155 kt - 894mb

[Cyclone1]

Finally, we see that HURDAT hasn't been abandoned yet. Can't wait until we get into the satellite era. Specifically 1992.

[Coredesat]

At the current pace of the reanalysis, that may be at least 20 years off, and I'm being generous.

[Cyclone1]

Yeah I know... they're waaaaaay behind. :/

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hmmm, an early season hurricane for Texas in 1851. I know its possible, if a Cat 4 can hit the Sabine in late June, as one did in 1957, but still a fairly rare event.



I wonder if it was an early season storm of true tropical origin from the Caribbean, or a system with sub-tropical origins.

[Cyclone1]

I assume Unisys hasn't updated their tracks yet.