2008 Severe Weather Thread

[JonathanBelles]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
430 AM EST MON FEB 18 2008

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870-
873-876-182230-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
430 AM EST MON FEB 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT LEVY/CITRUS COUNTY BY LATE MORNING...AND WILL REACH
CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ENOUGH
MID AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
SOUTHERN GEORGIA EARLY TODAY THAT A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP
FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS IN NEAR AND OFF-SHORE WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTHWARD FOR
MOST OF TODAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET OFF-SHORE AND 3 TO 5
FEET NEAR SHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT GULF WATERS TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO
20 KNOT RANGE BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH DRY AIR WILL
FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THIS MAY LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

CANTIN

[Ed Mahmoud]

Immediate Gulf Coast in Day4/Day 5 outlook area.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 AM CST MON FEB 18 2008

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...

SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST DAY 4 AND 5 WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
UNDERCUTTING BLOCKY UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE NRN U.S. AND CANADA
THEN ADVANCING EWD THROUGH THE SRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE SRN PLAINS DAY 4 THEN EJECT ENEWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS
DAY 5. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS IN WAKE OF A FRONT THAT
WILL ADVANCE TO NEAR THE GULF COAST REGION INTO ERN AND SWRN TX BY
THE START OF DAY 4.

PRIMARY CONCERN AND UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IS HOW FAR INLAND THE
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR CAN RETURN. SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT INITIALLY OVER PARTS OF ERN TX THEN
SHIFTING ENEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE TN VALLEY BY
DAY 5. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE WARM SECTOR MIGHT RETURN AS FAR
NORTH AS SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES. AS THE WARM SECTOR
RECOVERS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT INITIALLY OVER PARTS OF ERN TX DAY 4
THEN SPREADING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN U.S. LATER DAY 4
INTO DAY 5.

..DIAL.. 02/18/2008

0Z GFS Thursday afternoon shows pretty good instability, but fairly unimpressive low level winds, and suggestion of a decent cap. Plenty of time to watch this one, however.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Warm front looks to be near the Western Gulf Coast Thursday afternoon, and sometimes tornadoes are favored right along the front in the area of enhanced low level vorticity.

Doesn't seem, at least through Thursday, as big an event as yesterday's event, and, at any rate, I'll be near Fort Stockton on business then.

[RL3AO]

Looks like EF3 or EF4 damage near Prattville.

[Squarethecircle]

Wait, hold on, we have thirty four reports from yesterday?

[RL3AO]

Wait, hold on, we have thirty four reports from yesterday?

Yeah. But if you look, there are a few that go in a line. Likely the same long track tornado.

[Squarethecircle]

Still, that would be a very impressively long tracked tornado.

[CrazyC83]

The confirmed tornado count will likely run around 20.

[Squarethecircle]

That would count as a somewhat marginal outbreak, no?

[CrazyC83]

:uarrow: That would count as a somewhat marginal outbreak, no?

Moderate outbreak.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Day 4 and 5 are mentioned in the SPC Outlook, but a week from today looks potentially more active in the Lower Mississippi Valley than Thursday/Friday. Maybe closer to magnitude of yesterday's outbreak.



European has a fairly energetic 850 mb low at the same time in a similar location.

[RL3AO]

Nice looking system there.

[combellack]

Greetings folks
Does anybody know what the largest number of tornado reports in one day (or a day as the SPC counts it) is? I was a bit surprised yesterday when i noticed the super Tuesday outbreak was up to 130 reports so i went nosing back though the SPC database and couldn't find any days with that number of reports.
Thanks Mark

[RL3AO]

The most tornadoes in a day is 148 in April 1974 (24 F4s, 6 F5s). Of course, confirmed tornadoes and reports are two different things. The Super Tuesday Outbreak had 81 confirmed.

[wbug1]

Prattville damage path is quite narrow and looks like tornado was skipping abit.. to my eye anyway. However, it mowed down a long path

[Ed Mahmoud]

Prattville damage path is quite narrow and looks like tornado was skipping abit.. to my eye anyway. However, it mowed down a long path

From what I understand, the popular view now is that tornadoes don't really skip that much, rather, the same parent cell will produce a series of tornadoes, one dying as a new one forms, that produce a linear path of intermittent damage.

[brunota2003]

0912 UNK 2 N SNOW HILL GREENE NC 3548 7767 *** 3 INJ *** TWO MOBILE HOMES WITH ROOFS OFF AND TWO STORY HOUSE LEVELED. (MHX)

That sounds like a tornado...

I hit it right on the head...revised report:

0912 2 E SNOW HILL GREENE NC 3545 7764 *** 3 INJ *** TWO MOBILE HOMES WITH ROOFS OFF AND TWO STORY HOUSE LEVELED. PRELIMINARY REPORT FROM NWS STORM SURVEY INDICATES DAMAGE WAS FROM A TORNADO...ESTIMATED EF2 (MHX)

[RL3AO]

18z run, 180 hours.

[Squarethecircle]

Prattville damage path is quite narrow and looks like tornado was skipping abit.. to my eye anyway. However, it mowed down a long path

Wait, where are you getting damage reports?

[Brent]

Prattville damage path is quite narrow and looks like tornado was skipping abit.. to my eye anyway. However, it mowed down a long path

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAM HAS ASSESSED THE DAMAGE IN
AUTAUGA COUNTY. IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THE DAMAGE WAS THE RESULT
OF A TORNADO...RANKING EF-3 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE. THIS
STORM TRACKED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE COUNTY
RESULTING IN A PATH LENGTH OF 10.3 MILES. IT WAS 450 YARDS WIDE AT
ITS WIDEST POINT. THE MOST DAMAGE OCCURRED ALONG EAST MAIN STREET
NEAR MCQUEEN SMITH ROAD AND IN THE SILVER HILLS SUBDIVISION. AN
ESTIMATED 200 RESIDENTIAL HOMES AND 40 BUSINESSES WERE DAMAGED OR
DESTROYED. HUNDREDS OF TREES WERE EITHER SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. IN
ADDITION...50 INJURIES WERE REPORTED. WIND SPEEDS ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE UP TO 155 MILES PER HOUR. THIS DAMAGE OCCURED AT APPROXIMATELY
305 PM. A TORNADO WARNING WAS IN EFFECT FROM 2:31 PM UNTIL 3:30
PM. THIS STORM ALSO PRODUCED DAMAGE IN LOWNDES COUNTY AND THIS
STORM CONTINUED INTO ELMORE COUNTY.

I don't consider that narrow.