2008 Severe Weather Thread

[RL3AO]

Nice 1/4 mile wide tornado. Not too narrow at all.

[baygirl_1]

I sent an e-mail to a former classmate who lives in the Prattville area. She said they were in Montgomery when it hit. Her parents could see the tornado from their house as they live on a hill. Her Mom called them and told them to stay put for awhile. Thank goodness because their route home would've placed them right in the path of the tornado. She said she knows some folks who lost their homes. She said they saw some of the damage and it was terrible.

[Category 5]

Was there any tornado warnings in the MD/DE area earlier? I've heard reports but never saw the warnings.

[baygirl_1]

Here's a link to video from an aerial survery of the tornado damage in Prattville:
http://www.wkrg.com/news/article_large/aerials_of_prattville_tornado_damage/10446/video/

[HarlequinBoy]

The Molino tornado was rated EF1, Dixie was EF2. Prattville is the strongest rating with an EF3.

[wbug1]

Looking at photos of the residential area hit by the tornado, the damage path was not wide, evn less than 175 yards in points.

[Squarethecircle]

Definitely wider than that, from what I'm seeing.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'll be out around Iraan Thursday evening, and while the GFS predicts pretty meager low level wind fields, and no real instability below about 850 mb, the sounding suggests very strong instability between about 850 mb and 250 mb (confirmed somewhat by the TT, the difference between 500 mb temps and 850 mb temps and dewpoint), and strong speed shear in the region of greatest CAPE. This would be favorable, if true, for supercells rooted about 1500 meters above the surface, too high for a significant tornado risk but intense enough for damaging hail. Note SE Texas is in a 15% severe risk for Thursday.




SWODY3


There isn't a Day 6 or 7 severe area outlooked, and European has backed off on upper system moving through Plains into Southeast, but it may come back.

[wbug1]

Hi,

Not sure about the damage width, but in the Prattville residential areas the path shown in the first few aerial shots looks quite narrow. Anyway here's a good link to aerial survey photos at the pratvilleprogress. Aerial shot 6 shows severe damage in a path width of near 100 yards. Aerials 1 and 2 are a bit too far away too see, but it still looks narrow. Notice little damage to the trees in the immediate foreground.


http://www.prattvilleprogress.com/apps/ ... s=Itemnr=6

[Ed Mahmoud]

Quoting myself from the SE TX/ SW LA thread...

The SPC has now put us under a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather on Day 3...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Main threat is hail, but if storms could manage to become surface based, then tornadoes and damaging winds would also be a threat.

GFS has basically little CAPE below 650 mb Thursday afternoon, but very impressive CAPE between 650 mb and 250 mb, and very impressive speed shear in that interval, good for elevated supercells with hail.





I, however, will be in Fort Stockton, or nearby. But if there is hail, my 2007 Chevy Impala will be safely parked in the multi-level lot at Hobby.


I will say, looking at that sounding, it wouldn't take much cooling of the forecasted warm nose between 700 and 850 mb, or much more surface heating than forecast, to allow surface based storms.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Assuming the timing may be off a few hours one way or the other on a model forecast a week out, thus ignoring that this is about the coolest and most stable time of day (although possibly the strongest nocturnal jet, as discussed on tornado death alley thread), a week from now we might have a fairly significant outbreak in the Southeast, if the 12Z GFS has the big picture

Link

[fwbbreeze]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/productview ... ns&sid=mob


000
NOUS44 KMOB 200114 AAA
PNSMOB
ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-201800-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
715 PM CST TUE FEB 19 2008

...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DAMAGE SURVEY TEAM CONFIRMS THREE
TORNADOES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT OF SUNDAY
FEBRUARY 17 2008...

THE SURVEY TEAM INDICATED THAT ALL OF THESE TORNADOES WERE PRODUCED
BY THE SAME LONG LIVED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FEBRUARY 17 2008. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WAS
NOT A SINGLE LONG TRACKED TORNADO...BUT RATHER A SERIES OF THREE
TORNADOES PRODUCED BY THE SAME PARENT SUPERCELL STORM.

BELOW IS A COUNTY BY COUNTY DISCUSSION OF THE EVENT.

...MOLINO (ESCAMBIA COUNTY FLORIDA)...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAM HAS DETERMINED THAT THE
DAMAGE IN THE MOLINO AREA WAS THE RESULT OF A TORNADO WITH WINDS OF
100-110 MPH...RANKING THIS AS A STRONG EF-1 TORNADO ON THE ENHANCED
FUJITA SCALE. THE TORNADO FIRST TOUCHED DOWN WEST OF HIGHWAY
29...AND TO THE SOUTH OF MOLINO ROAD. THE TORNADO THEN MOVED
NORTHEAST JUST TO THE SOUTH OF MOLINO ROAD...TO NEAR OLD MOLINO AND
THEN CROSSED THE ESCAMBIA RIVER AND DISSIPATED JUST EAST OF THE
RIVER. THE TORNADO PATH WAS APPROXIMATELY 5 MILES LONG AND 200 YARDS
WIDE AT ITS WIDEST POINT. THE TORNADO DAMAGED APPROXIMATELY 60
STRUCTURES...WITH 40 OF THEM UNINHABITABLE. THIS DAMAGE OCCURRED
AROUND NOON CST. A TORNADO WARNING WAS IN EFFECT FROM 1146 AM CST
UNTIL 1245 CST PM. NO INJURIES WERE REPORTED.

...CHUMUCKLA(SANTA ROSA COUNTY FLORIDA)...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAM HAS DETERMINED THAT THE
DAMAGE NEAR CHUMUCKLA WAS THE RESULT OF A TORNADO WITH WINDS OF
AROUND 100 MPH...RANKING THIS AS A MODERATE EF-1 TORNADO ON THE
ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE. THIS TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE INTERSECTION OF CHUMUCKLA SPRINGS AND SCHNOOR ROADS AND THEN
MOVED NORTHEAST...ENDING JUST NORTH OF HOWELL PITT ROAD. THE TORNADO
PATH WAS APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES LONG AND 75 YARDS WIDE AT ITS WIDEST
POINT. TWO HOMES SUFFERED EXTENSIVE ROOF DAMAGE...AND A LARGE HEAVY
DUTY METAL SHED WAS DESTROYED. THIS DAMAGE OCCURRED AROUND 1215 PM
CST. A TORNADO WARNING WAS IN EFFECT FROM 1146 AM CST UNTIL 1245 PM
CST. NO INJURIES WERE REPORTED.

...DIXIE TO FAIRFIELD (ESCAMBIA AND COVINGTON COUNTIES OF ALABAMA)...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAM HAS DETERMINED THAT THE
DAMAGE NEAR DIXIE WAS PRODUCED BY THE STRONGEST TORNADO ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SUPERCELL STORM WITH WINDS OF 130-135 MPH...RANKING THIS AS
A STRONG EF-2 TORNADO ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE. THIS TORNADO
FIRST TOUCHED DOWN OVER A HEAVILY FORESTED AREA ABOUT 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE COMMUNITY OF DIXIE. IT THEN MOVED NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FOREST...CROSSING HIGHWAY 29 JUST TO THE WEST OF DIXIE. THE
TORNADO THEN CONTINUED NORTHEAST ACROSS HEAVILY FORESTED AREAS...
MOVING INTO WESTERN COVINGTON COUNTY AND EVENTUALLY CROSSING COUNTY
ROAD 42 JUST TO THE WEST OF FAIRFIELD. THE TORNADO THEN DISSIPATED
JUST NORTH OF FAIRFIELD. THE TORNADO PATH WAS APPROXIMATELY 15 MILES
LONG AND 500 YARDS WIDE AT ITS WIDEST POINT. SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE
OCCURRED ALONG THE ENTIRE TRACK OF THE TORNADO...WITH STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE CONFINED TO THE POPULATED AREAS OF DIXIE AND FAIRFIELD.
THREE HOMES WERE DESTROYED IN DIXIE...AND TWO LARGE TOWERS WERE
DAMAGED. TWO OCCUPANTS OF ONE OF THE HOMES THAT WAS DESTROYED IN
DIXIE GOT INTO AN INTERIOR BATHROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE TWO
STORY HOUSE...AND COVERED THEMSELVES WITH CUSHIONS. THE TORNADO TORE
OFF THE TOP STORY OF THE HOME AND DAMAGED THE LOWER FLOOR...BUT THE
TWO RESIDENTS OF THE HOME WERE UNHARMED. ALSO OF NOTE...SOME CENTURY
OLD HEADSTONES WERE BLOWN OVER IN A CEMETERY JUST NORTH OF DIXIE. IN
FAIRFIELD...AN ESTIMATED FIVE HOUSES SUFFERED DAMAGE AND ONE HOUSE
WAS DESTROYED. THE DAMAGE IN DIXIE OCCURRED AROUND 110 PM CST...AND
THE DAMAGE IN FAIRFIELD OCCURRED AROUND 125 PM CST. A TORNADO
WARNING WAS IN EFFECT FROM 1229 PM CST UNTIL 130 PM CST FOR ESCAMBIA
COUNTY...AND WAS EXTENDED INTO COVINGTON COUNTY AT 112 PM CST VALID
UNTIL 215 PM CST. NO INJURIES WERE REPORTED IN EITHER DIXIE OR
FAIRFIELD.

[RL3AO]

BTW, there is a current TOR watch over Southern Louisiana this morning. SLGT risk (10%/30/30)

[CrazyC83]

So much and we haven't even got out of February yet. Normally we are at the very beginning of the so-called "tornado season" now.

Sadly, already 67 people have died so far this year. (If that pace keeps up for all of 2008 - highly unlikely barring a Super Outbreak II or a direct hit on a major city - there would be 453 fatalities!)

[Ed Mahmoud]

Should be a quiter week coming up. Normally, a big powerhouse California storm means severe weather a day and a half to two days later in the Plains, but the models, and the SPC, don't see much the next few days.

[brunota2003]

I dunno about the rest of you guys, but this Tuesday is forecast to be quite active here in Eastern NC, with the local NWS office looking at the potential for severe weather, even though the SPC isnt listing anything.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
405 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE A DRY MILD DAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH FROM
THE WEST. CLOUDS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. KEPT LIKELY
POPS GOING FOR TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IT COULD BE
AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON. WIND FIELDS ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
GOOD LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR WITH A LITTLE BIT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
PARAMETERS IN PLACE FOR HAIL PRODUCTION TOO. AFTERNOON SWEAT INDEX
AROUND 470...TOTAL TOTALS IN THE MID 50S AND SHOWALTER AS LOW AS -3.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST IN THE EVENING AND ALL ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER BY 04Z WEDNESDAY.

Of course, some of those terms I have no clue what they mean, but.

[breeze]

Looks like trouble brewing in the Arklatex region late this evening with a strong line of storms to develop and head east, overnight. People in the South need to moniter their weather radios again tonight.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX EWD THROUGH
MS AND AL...

...ARKLATEX THROUGH MS AND AL...

THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NERN KS
SWWD THROUGH WRN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM ERN
OK THROUGH CNTRL AND SWRN TX. AXIS OF MODIFIED CP AIR WITH LOW TO
MID 60S DEWPOINTS RESIDES OVER SERN TX. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
ADVECTING NNEWD ALONG A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY DOWNSTREAM FROM A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS. MOIST ADVECTION BENEATH AN EWD
ADVECTING EML AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF 1000
TO 1500 J/KG MLCAPE FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STRENGTH OF EML AND LESS THAN OPTIMAL MOISTURE
RETURN SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CAPPED UNTIL
THE FRONT MERGES WITH DRYLINE AND INTERCEPTS MOIST AXIS. ZONE OF
DEEPER ASCENT ATTENDING THE FRONT AND DPVA ACCOMPANYING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS BY EARLY
EVENING.

VERTICAL WIND PROFILES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO AOA 60 KT AS MID LEVEL JET ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION. HOWEVER...THE STRONGLY FORCED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SUGGEST STORMS WILL TRANSITION TO LINE
SEGMENTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOWING STRUCTURES AND EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...THOUGH
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

STRONG FRONTAL FORCING AND MOIST ADVECTION ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT EWD INTO PARTS OF MS AND AL
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BECOME THE MAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...WEAKENING INSTABILITY MAY EVENTUALLY SERVE AS A LIMITING
FACTOR WITH ERN EXTENT INTO THIS REGION.

..DIAL.. 02/25/2008

[HarlequinBoy]

Just a Severe Thunderstorm Watch here and areas southwest.

[wbug1]

Current line of TS moving throught LA/MS:
The thunderstorm cell approaching Mccomb, MS looks the strongest out of that line. Motion is directly to the east at near 60 mph. 55 dbz echos but seems to be holding together better than the other cells, it's more persistent, and has a round look to it.

[wbug1]

The cell approaching mccomb, ms is now weakening while the cell SSE of jackson has become intense.