SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[Ed Mahmoud]

It looks like our next Severe threat may be as little as 5 days away...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2008

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR IN EVOLUTION OF OVERALL LARGE SCALE UPPER
PATTERN THROUGH DAY 5. CONSENSUS IS TRANSITION TO MORE OR LESS A
SPLIT FLOW WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UNDERCUTTING THE BLOCKY
UPPER RIDGE OVER CANADA AND ADVANCING ESEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND
SRN CONUS. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES DO EXIST WITH DETAILS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES...AND BEYOND ABOUT DAY 5
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLOWER WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO THE SRN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY DAY 5 WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH SLOWER AND LESS
AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF AND MREF MEAN. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF AND MAINTAIN A RISK AREA FOR DAY 5 FROM PARTS OF ERN TX INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR PARTIALLY
MODIFIED GULF AIR TO RETURN NWD AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...AND SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FOR A SEVERE
THREAT IN THIS AREA. GIVEN THE COMPLEX...TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THIS
EVOLVING PATTERN AND UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING DETAILS AND TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL WAVES...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 AM CST MON FEB 18 2008

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...

SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST DAY 4 AND 5 WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
UNDERCUTTING BLOCKY UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE NRN U.S. AND CANADA
THEN ADVANCING EWD THROUGH THE SRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE SRN PLAINS DAY 4 THEN EJECT ENEWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS
DAY 5. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS IN WAKE OF A FRONT THAT
WILL ADVANCE TO NEAR THE GULF COAST REGION INTO ERN AND SWRN TX BY
THE START OF DAY 4.

PRIMARY CONCERN AND UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IS HOW FAR INLAND THE
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR CAN RETURN. SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT INITIALLY OVER PARTS OF ERN TX THEN
SHIFTING ENEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE TN VALLEY BY
DAY 5. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE WARM SECTOR MIGHT RETURN AS FAR
NORTH AS SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES. AS THE WARM SECTOR
RECOVERS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT INITIALLY OVER PARTS OF ERN TX DAY 4
THEN SPREADING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN U.S. LATER DAY 4
INTO DAY 5.

..DIAL.. 02/18/2008

0Z GFS shows CAPE in excess of 1000 J/Kg in SE Texas Thursday, and rain, but we're also just outside the forecast -100 J/Kg of CINH line, and low level winds are not that strong.

But it is early.


My yard is well watered at this point. Time for some pre-emergent crab grass killer, maybe applied next weekend.



Edit to Add:
Flying to Midland Wednesday morning, coming back Friday.

The motel will be in Ft Stockton, TX. Probably won't have internet access.

[southerngale]

I spent all day treading through calf deep water in my own yard yesterday. We've had too much rain over the past few months although I am thankful that we've been spared the worst of the storms fury. We will need much more than just 3 days of cool and dry weather to clear up some of this swamp that we're developing but it doesn't look as though mother nature will cooperate. Our next 50% chance of storms are on track for Wednesday.

I hear ya, Jagno. I'm stuck in this stupid house because I can't get the outside work done in order to put it on the market. There's never enough time between rain events for it to dry out and get the work done. I try to just grin and bear it, but it doesn't work too well. lol
It's frustrating. Ugh... just saw the NWS forecast. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday look wet. *sigh*
Oh well... at least we didn't get the severe weather that everyone thought we would. We had some pretty strong thunderstorms, with a lot of rain, but nothing even close to severe. I had some limbs down and a garbage can knocked over, but that was before the storms ever arrived, when it was just windy.
I've seen MUCH worse weather, many times, when there was no watch or warning beforehand.

[PTrackerLA]

I spent all day treading through calf deep water in my own yard yesterday. We've had too much rain over the past few months although I am thankful that we've been spared the worst of the storms fury. We will need much more than just 3 days of cool and dry weather to clear up some of this swamp that we're developing but it doesn't look as though mother nature will cooperate. Our next 50% chance of storms are on track for Wednesday.

I hear ya, Jagno. I'm stuck in this stupid house because I can't get the outside work done in order to put it on the market. There's never enough time between rain events for it to dry out and get the work done. I try to just grin and bear it, but it doesn't work too well. lol
It's frustrating. Ugh... just saw the NWS forecast. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday look wet. *sigh*
Oh well... at least we didn't get the severe weather that everyone thought we would. We had some pretty strong thunderstorms, with a lot of rain, but nothing even close to severe. I had some limbs down and a garbage can knocked over, but that was before the storms ever arrived, when it was just windy.
I've seen MUCH worse weather, many times, when there was no watch or warning beforehand.

I agree about the severe weather. The event this weekend was VERY hyped only to be an almost non-event. We didn't even pick up a half inch of rain with the squall line. However, last Tuesday we only had a very slight risk of severe weather and it turned out to be my areas largest severe outbreak in quite some time with a few tornadoes reported and lots of wind damage and hail. As far as this years rainfall is concerned, Lafayette and Beaumont are barely above average for the year and actually below average for the month of February thus far. If your yard is as wet as you say it is, I hate to think what it would be like if we really start receiving above normal rainfall. Bad news for you is that Wednesday-Friday looks pretty wet at the moment.

Here's a picture of a possible tornado or "gustnado" near New Iberia last Tuesday:

[southerngale]

As far as this years rainfall is concerned, Lafayette and Beaumont are barely above average for the year and actually below average for the month of February thus far. If your yard is as wet as you say it is, I hate to think what it would be like if we really start receiving above normal rainfall. Bad news for you is that Wednesday-Friday looks pretty wet at the moment.

If my yard is as wet as I say it is? lol - why would I say it was if it wasn't?
Anyway, I don't know how much rainfall I've received at my house. Assuming your averages came from NWS, the "official" Beaumont weather comes from the airport, which is in Nederland, south of Beaumont, and about 25 - 30 miles from my house. Their rainfall and mine (or various other locations in the area) are often quite different. We could have flooding rains here, and they get very little, or vice versa. They could get a couple of inches of rain one day, while I get 5 inches, or 0 inches. In June of 2006, Groves had a severe flooding event when they got 16 inches of rain in just 7 hours! Groves and Nederland are are very close to each other, but the airport didn't get anywhere remotely close to that much rain. I don't remember exactly, but maybe a few inches.

With all that said, I never said we were getting flooding rains or anything like that. It's mostly that it just rains so often. I have said numerous times that there's never enough time between rainy days for my yard to dry out enough to do the work that we need to do. One thing we're trying to do is replace a sidewalk, spread dirt in the lower parts of the yard, then re-plant grass over that, among other things. The few times we've tried to work out there when it wasn't dry was a nightmare, and after the horrendous mess it made both outside and inside, I'll wait, even though it may be a while. After the walkway sunk into the ground, it's been a mess just trying to get to and from the cars. We made a temporary "bridge" in the worst part out of a large piece of plywood, then when that sunk into the ground as well, we ended up throwing an old door over it, just to keep from getting too much mud on our feet so we could go to and from the cars. It's a terrible mess. I'm glad to say that we made a little progress recently, even with the yucky mud everywhere.... the plywood and door is gone. lol (how attractive was that!?) and we got enough dirt spread and added a lot of gravel and then brick steps to temporarily give us a higher walkway until we can get it all raised and put in something more permanent. We had to have a place to walk! We have a ton of dirt to spread, and a lot of work to do. I am looking forward to getting it completed, but the rain has been quite frustrating. I've just been wishing for several weeks of sunshine, because even with 2 or 3 days of sun before it rains again, that's not enough time to dry out this mess. We really want to move soon! Then I can go back to loving rain and thunderstorms like I have my whole life.

Btw, local mets have mentioned how saturated the ground is, as well as folks complaining about it on a local message board. It's not just me.




Edit: Geesh... just saw how long my post was. Sorry for the book.

[Ptarmigan]

If my yard is as wet as I say it is? lol - why would I say it was if it wasn't?
Anyway, I don't know how much rainfall I've received at my house. Assuming your averages came from NWS, the "official" Beaumont weather comes from the airport, which is in Nederland, south of Beaumont, and about 25 - 30 miles from my house. Their rainfall and mine (or various other locations in the area) are often quite different. We could have flooding rains here, and they get very little, or vice versa. They could get a couple of inches of rain one day, while I get 5 inches, or 0 inches. In June of 2006, Groves had a severe flooding event when they got 16 inches of rain in just 7 hours! Groves and Nederland are are very close to each other, but the airport didn't get anywhere remotely close to that much rain. I don't remember exactly, but maybe a few inches.

With all that said, I never said we were getting flooding rains or anything like that. It's mostly that it just rains so often. I have said numerous times that there's never enough time between rainy days for my yard to dry out enough to do the work that we need to do. One thing we're trying to do is replace a sidewalk, spread dirt in the lower parts of the yard, then re-plant grass over that, among other things. The few times we've tried to work out there when it wasn't dry was a nightmare, and after the horrendous mess it made both outside and inside, I'll wait, even though it may be a while. After the walkway sunk into the ground, it's been a mess just trying to get to and from the cars. We made a temporary "bridge" in the worst part out of a large piece of plywood, then when that sunk into the ground as well, we ended up throwing an old door over it, just to keep from getting too much mud on our feet so we could go to and from the cars. It's a terrible mess. I'm glad to say that we made a little progress recently, even with the yucky mud everywhere.... the plywood and door is gone. lol (how attractive was that!?) and we got enough dirt spread and added a lot of gravel and then brick steps to temporarily give us a higher walkway until we can get it all raised and put in something more permanent. We had to have a place to walk! We have a ton of dirt to spread, and a lot of work to do. I am looking forward to getting it completed, but the rain has been quite frustrating. I've just been wishing for several weeks of sunshine, because even with 2 or 3 days of sun before it rains again, that's not enough time to dry out this mess. We really want to move soon! Then I can go back to loving rain and thunderstorms like I have my whole life.

Btw, local mets have mentioned how saturated the ground is, as well as folks complaining about it on a local message board. It's not just me.




Edit: Geesh... just saw how long my post was. Sorry for the book.

I notice a lot of heavy rain event happens in a small area. Kinda like a core rain event.

[Diva]

I can certainly echo what southerngale is saying! I'm in Orange, which is about 30 miles east of Beaumont. Our yard is incredibly soggy. And the crawfish mounds make it look like we run a crawfish farm here! I too am very ready to dry out for awhile so I can at least walk in my yard with out sinking ankle deep in mud....and mudbugs.

[PTrackerLA]

SG I believe you when you say your yard is very wet! The grounds around here seem to stay damp but it's hard for things to dry out during the winter months. I just wanted to point out that this is normal. All of the official rainfall recording sites around here are basically normal give or take an inch or two. Might as well just wait until late spring when we have a dry spell and temps are nearing 90...that will dry the ground out very quickly. I've been looking at the GFS loops lately and it appears that we're gonna stay in an active pattern for at least the next two weeks. Should have a nice green spring though!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The SPC has now put us under a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather on Day 3...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Main threat is hail, but if storms could manage to become surface based, then tornadoes and damaging winds would also be a threat.

[jasons2k]

I had a low of 40F this morning but there was lots of frost on the rooftops...

[Ed Mahmoud]

The SPC has now put us under a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather on Day 3...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Main threat is hail, but if storms could manage to become surface based, then tornadoes and damaging winds would also be a threat.

GFS has basically little CAPE below 650 mb Thursday afternoon, but very impressive CAPE between 650 mb and 250 mb, and very impressive speed shear in that interval, good for elevated supercells with hail.





I, however, will be in Fort Stockton, or nearby. But if there is hail, my 2007 Chevy Impala will be safely parked in the multi-level lot at Hobby.


I will say, looking at that sounding, it wouldn't take much cooling of the forecasted warm nose between 700 and 850 mb, or much more surface heating than forecast, to allow surface based storms.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

I can certainly echo what southerngale is saying! I'm in Orange, which is about 30 miles east of Beaumont. Our yard is incredibly soggy. And the crawfish mounds make it look like we run a crawfish farm here! I too am very ready to dry out for awhile so I can at least walk in my yard with out sinking ankle deep in mud....and mudbugs.

time for a mudbug party D, I will fly in with my jet from the lake and get things going a.s.a.p! LOL!

[Ed Mahmoud]

0Z WRF looks pretty dry along the immediate coast.


The old ETA is a little wetter, but no washout.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS wetter

Sounding still looks favorable for strong, but elevated storms

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have received about 0.80" of rain so far today.

Update: Up to 0.95" at 10:06pm.

[KatDaddy]

We dont need anymore rainfall as we head toward Spring. The early 80s brought heavy flooding rains to the Upper Tx Coast. We are very saturated and should the early 80s pattern return we will have flooding problems soon

[jasons2k]

Looks like one of those days where we may see a couple of wind reports, but hopefully nothing too severe. I'm more concerned with the rainfall than severe wx.

[southerngale]

Yeah, Jason... hopefully, we won't get as much this afternoon and tonight as they say we could. There's already a Flood Warning for Pine Island Bayou. Too much more rain and it starts becoming more of a problem for residents. This is the one that floods my neighborhood, but I don't think we'll get anywhere near enough for it to be a problem here. When there's a warning though, I start watching closely.

Flood Warning

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1109 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN TEXAS...

PINE ISLAND BAYOU NEAR SOUR LAKE

.WITH PREVIOUS HIGH RAINFALLS AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THAT IS
FORECAST...PINE ISLAND BAYOU IS NOW FORECAST TO GO ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS OCCUR...THE CREST MAY
HAVE TO BE REVISED UPWARD.

TXC199-245-220709-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FL.W.0017.080221T2230Z-000000T0000Z/
/SOLT2.1.ER.080221T2230Z.080224T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1109 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE PINE ISLAND BAYOU NEAR SOUR LAKE.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS
CANCELLED.
* AT 10:45 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.4 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 26.9 FEET BY SATURDAY EVENING.
* AT STAGES NEAR 25.0 FEET...WATER INUNDATES ROADS IN LOWLAND AREAS
NEAR THE RIVER. LOW SPOTS ON OLD SOUR LAKE ROAD ARE UNDER WATER.

$$
BRAZZELL

[Johnny]

Also, grounds are already very saturated and even some good winds below severe limits could start toppling shallow rooted trees. Just one tree on the power lines and baboooom, lights go out!!

[jasons2k]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0279.html

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0279
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CST THU FEB 21 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211856Z - 212000Z

MARITIME AIRMASS HAS RETURNED TO THE UPPER TX COAST AND SRN LA AS
WARM FRONT GRADUALLY RETREATS INLAND. OF SOME CONCERN IS THE RECENT
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST INTO EXTREME SWRN LA.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EVOLVING WITHIN A VERY MOIST...AND MODESTLY BUOYANT
ENVIRONMENT. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THIS ACTIVITY IS NEAR-SFC BASED WITH
DEW POINTS APPROACHING 70F. SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE
TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND ROTATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR POSSIBLE
SUPERCELL INTENSIFICATION. IF THIS OCCURS THEN ISOLATED TORNADOES
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...OTHERWISE ACTIVITY WILL ADVECT NEWD GRADUALLY
BECOMING ELEVATED IN NATURE AS CONVECTION SPREADS ATOP COOLER
AIRMASS OVER CNTRL LA. ELEVATED ACTIVITY COULD GENERATE HAIL BUT
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED WELL NORTH OF WIND SHIFT.

[srainhoutx]

WOUS64 KWNS 211937
WOU0

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 70
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM CST THU FEB 21 2008

TORNADO WATCH 70 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC001-003-005-009-011-019-023-033-037-039-043-047-053-055-059-
063-069-077-079-085-091-097-099-115-121-125-220300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0070.080221T1940Z-080222T0300Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ACADIA ALLEN ASCENSION
AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU
CAMERON EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA
EVANGELINE GRANT IBERVILLE
JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LA SALLE
LIVINGSTON NATCHITOCHES POINTE COUPEE
RAPIDES SABINE ST. HELENA
ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN VERNON
WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA


MSC157-220300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0070.080221T1940Z-080222T0300Z/

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

WILKINSON


TXC005-071-167-199-201-225-241-245-291-339-347-351-361-373-403-
405-407-455-457-471-220300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0070.080221T1940Z-080222T0300Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANGELINA CHAMBERS GALVESTON
HARDIN HARRIS HOUSTON
JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY
MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES NEWTON
ORANGE POLK SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO TRINITY
TYLER WALKER


GMZ335-355-450-220300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0070.080221T1940Z-080222T0300Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

GALVESTON BAY

COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...SHV...LIX...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0070.html