2008 Severe Weather Thread

[CrazyC83]

I don't see anything big happening on Sunday anyway. I'm guessing an upper-end slight risk day.

[brunota2003]

MHX afternoon update:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SVR WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS STARTING TO APPEAR VERY SIMILAR
IN REGARDS TO TRACK OF SFC LOW. ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
DEEPER WITH LOW. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE SYSTEM SLOWING
DOWN RUN TO RUN. VERY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE AREA AS 70+ KT LLVL JET DEVELOPS AT 850 BENEATH VERY
STRONG DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS
MARGINAL AT THIS POINT.THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA IF A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP. ONCE FRONT GOES THROUGH WEDNESDAY HIGH WILL BUILD BACK OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MON-TUE ABOVE NORMAL THEN COOLING SLIGHTLY FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 60S.

[CrazyC83]

Now up to 68 tornado deaths for 2008 - one death from Tuesday thought to have been from winds has been reclassified as from an EF1 tornado - http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/validProds ... &node=KBMX

We could be one outbreak away from surpassing all of 2007, which was the deadliest year since 1999...

[flwxwatcher]

Tonights 0Z GFS continues with a severe threat for the next storm and has an even more powerful storm for late next week. It could be a very interesting week ahead.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The Thursday/Friday storm, if the GFS, is mostly in the Gulf, with a lot of cold air, and only a small warm sector.


The severe weather risk looks limited mainly to Florida late week (if the GFS is correct), and the Thursday-Friday-Saturday storm may be more famous as a winter weather maker, with possible snow or ice to the I-20 corridor East Texas to Georgia, then snow all the way up the I-95 corridor from near Norfolk and Northward.


For SE Texas, where I live, agains the GFS shows storms along and behind the cold front, while the WRF shows a few cells developing ahead of the front. The GFS would have marginally severe wind gusts and hail, the WRF would have at least some tornado potential. But even the WRF shows most of the precip along and behind the front. If there is any region with an enhanced severe risk, the Arklatex, along the warm front just East of the surface low.

WRF loop


Any discrete cells that can form in the HOU area ahead of the front, despite the early morning hour, would have tornadic potential. (See forecast skew-T below). But several runs of GFS have shown along and behind the front in SE Texas, several runs of the WRF have suggested at some pre-frontal storms. Maybe a function of the grid resolution. Although the GFS shows some pre-frontal action closer to DFW Sunday afternoon, that dies out during the evening as the storms on/behind the front really take off.

[wbug1]

517 m2/s2 helicity in that sounding sounds high, out of curiosity what is the highest helicity reading ever taken? Looking at the computer models, all are showing high helicity values sweeping through the southern states in addition to high 300 and high 700/850 mbar winds on or near tues, march 4th. 700 mbar wind over 90 knots in a large area tues March 4th.

[jaxfladude]

Tonights 0Z GFS continues with a severe threat for the next storm and has an even more powerful storm for late next week. It could be a very interesting week ahead.

"Beware The Ides of March"

[Cyclone1]

In like a lion so far.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like March will pick up where February left off...let's hope we don't get anywhere close to the body count of February (61).

[RL3AO]

The 12z run of the GFS is much further north and has the precip ahead of the front. Lets see what the 18z run shows.

[CrazyC83]

Not pretty, and that is my thinking too.

Main threat area: from NE Louisiana to Georgia, west to east beginning Monday night until Tuesday evening.

[CrazyC83]

Strong words from NWS Birmingham:

000
FLUS44 KBMX 011909
HWOBMX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-021830-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
100 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG
WINDS...HAIL...AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE TIMING OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...AND MAY CHANGE AS THE FORECASTS ARE
UPDATED. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS EVENT...TAKE TIME OVER THE
WEEKEND TO GO OVER YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLAN AND STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL LIKELY BE
NECESSARY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

17/KLAWS

[CrazyC83]

NWS Jackson MS also has a harsh message out:

000
FLUS44 KJAN 011110
HWOJAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
510 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
021115-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
510 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT MANY AREAS OF THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH AT LEAST 8
AM THIS MORNING...BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AT
TIMES. DENSE FOG THROUGH THIS TIME SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
SECTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE TWENTY CORRIDOR. EXPECT
DENSE FOG TO BE OF A MORE PATCHY NATURE OVER LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 AND
UP TO THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. ANY DENSE FOG FORMING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED. PLEASE
SEE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS THIS
MORNING FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL AGAIN EXIST
LATE TONIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES COMBINE WITH
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

AS A LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA...A VERY
UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL BEGIN SURGING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT...THE
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR TO BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MIDDAY MONDAY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...AS
A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
COMBINES WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI MONDAY EVENING. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS
CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.

IN ADDITION...AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...THE LINGERING RAINFALL COULD CHANGE OVER TO OR MIX
WITH SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING...FLURRIES ALSO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

21

[CrazyC83]

It appears likely that Monday and perhaps Tuesday will be at least Moderate Risk days...I do think the SPC is quite conservative on the day 3, I'd have a much larger 30% area and have it hatched across most of MS/AL and eastern LA (although quickly dropping off to the north, with 5% into the Ohio Valley).

[RL3AO]

In defense of the SPC, the past few days, the models have not agreed. They are starting to agree and they are not looking good. I wouldn't be surprised for a day 2 MDT tomorrow.

[wbug1]

I generated this interesting image of 300,850 mb wind component. That shear and convergence at the eastern border of California looks extreme. Also the total totals index.


http://cid-74d76799a4c989a7.spaces.live.com/photos/cns!74D76799A4C989A7!107/

[CrazyC83]

In defense of the SPC, the past few days, the models have not agreed. They are starting to agree and they are not looking good. I wouldn't be surprised for a day 2 MDT tomorrow.

My thinking too. This may be as bad as February 5, just farther south.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If, and its a big if, storms can develop in SE Texas ahead of the mainline, even the Houston/Beaumont area could see early morning tornadoes.

[RL3AO]

Should an individual thread be made for this possible outbreak?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Unrelated to severe weather, when I got out of the Navy, I kind of wanted to go to a met school, but my Dad worked flight dispatch at American Airlines, (he worked with Harold Taft in the 50s, when future KXAS met Taft would say "Talk Yankee for us, Charlie", at DAL, before DFW was built, and before my Dad was transferred back to JFK (I was born in Flushing, Queens)), and said the mets at AA made no money, and I studied petroleum engineering. But I've been laid off when oil went to $10 a barrell, and I'd be happier as a met. Life is good now in the oil biz, but everything is the price of oil, and oil has crashed 3 times in the last 25 years.


3 rum and Diet &-Ups watching the NASCAR Nationwide Race. Mild buzz.


Now, I don't buy Lotto tix much, but if I won, I'd quit. Have to go to Texas A&M, which would suck a little as my BS in Pet Eng is from UT, but my wife says she wants to stay near HOU.

Maybe, when I turn 65, I'll go back to college.