March 1st: Storm system over europe

[TheEuropean]

An intense storm system will make its way from the northern atlantic to southern scandinavia. On Saturday in many parts of Germany there will be gusts up to hurricane force, may be in showers or storms locally up to 80 mph or even more. Some models show a squall line with the risk of one or two tornadoes as storm "Kyrill" in January 2007. At lest 4 Tornados were confirmed, two F3 and one borderline F2-F3.

This will be one of the major storm events of the last years and the biggest storm event of this winter.

TheEuropean

[Meso]

EURO shows a rather large area of 30-40m/s winds

[wbug1]

Wow, looks like a storm alright. The real stormy part will pass well south of here I think but I was wondering what it is bringing the temperatures down here over the next few days along with snow.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[wbug1]

300 hPa wind at 310 km/hr+ / 195mph and 85 kts at 850 hPa over northern Germany looks like a recipe for bad storms. Good thing it's not too warm there yet, 10 degrees C isn't favourable for thunderstorm development. The right end of that jet looks like an arrowhead.

[TheEuropean]

300 hPa wind at 310 km/hr+ / 195mph and 85 kts at 850 hPa over northern Germany looks like a recipe for bad storms. Good thing it's not too warm there yet, 10 degrees C isn't favourable for thunderstorm development. The right end of that jet looks like an arrowhead.

We don't need more than 10 degrees C for thunderstorms. The air mass is instable and with very intense low level shear it's a typical situation for a line with showers and storms to build.

[wbug1]

Yup, storms with high winds, don't think there will be much lightning though, which won't be the main issue here.

[Ed Mahmoud]

When 850 mb winds are 80 knots, well over hurricane force, don't need a whole lot of instability, as even a 'weak' thunderstorm can mix down very damaging winds in gusts.


In the US, in winter, thunderstorms can happen when the surface temperature is below 0ºC. Two weeks ago, just outside Abilene, thunderstorm, freezing rain, and hail the size of US quarters, because warmer air was above the approximately 1 km thick layer of cold, dense air.

[TheEuropean]

When 850 mb winds are 80 knots, well over hurricane force, don't need a whole lot of instability, as even a 'weak' thunderstorm can mix down very damaging winds in gusts.

In the US, in winter, thunderstorms can happen when the surface temperature is below 0ºC. Two weeks ago, just outside Abilene, thunderstorm, freezing rain, and hail the size of US quarters, because warmer air was above the approximately 1 km thick layer of cold, dense air.

That's right. Only six days ago in the northeastern part of Germany a squall went through with thunderstorms and wind gusts up to 86 knots! Damage was immense and winds in 850 were weaker than we expect this saturday.

[wbug1]

I just hope we don't get very high winds here in Finland. The weather organization so far hasn't made any statements about a storm, but they usually wait till 48 hrs in advance before issuing a statement. Judging by that ECMWF pic, maybe we could get a few gusts to 80 km/h.

I remember in Toronto, Canada seeing a few brief flashes of lightning during a snowstorm. The worst weather I have seen has been mostly lightning related. While eating dinner at my uncles home, located in the countryside in central Finland, a violent thunderstorm, in terms of lightning, moved in. It had been rumbling for hours, and while eating dinner a lightning strike nearby caused the electrical fusebox to explode in a shower of sparks. During that same thunderstorm, I saw a ball of lightning come out of an electrical socket where the freezer was, and it exploded with a bang. In Toronto, I was watching a severe TS roll in, and I saw a bolt at 300 meters strike a local transformer sitting on a power pole. It immediately knocked the power out in our neighbourhood. Windwise, the derecho of 1998 moved through Toronto and the airport reported a sustained 10 min wind of 84 km/hr with a gust to 111 km/h. Damage was minor.

[Crostorm]

Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 29 Feb 2008 06:00 to Sat 01 Mar 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 28 Feb 2008 19:29
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Nordhemispheric upper-level streamline pattern during the past 48h was conducive for the advection of a true tropical airmass towards the NE just east of North America. Despite modification, this column of very warm air has gained latitude refering to the latest MIMC-TPW loop and now underlays a developing high pressure area west / northwest of Portugal. This strengthening cell shifts eastwards with constantly rising geopotential heights. At the same time a broad cyclonic vortex continues to strengthen south of Iceland while racing eastwards. As a result of this strengthening baroclinic zone, an intense jet sets up over the northern Atlantic with up to 100m/s at 300hPa, pointing to NW Europe while assisting the cyclonic vortex by beneficial upper-level divergence in its exit region.
All those features result in a developing, intense wind field over NW and parts of central Europe during the next 24 hours.
Stable and cold conditions prevail over eastern Europe while dry and warm conditions continue over the Mediterranean.

DISCUSSION

.... Ireland and United Kingdom....

A concentrated swath of enhanced and possibly organized convective activity expected running from N-Ireland to central and SE United Kingdom.

An impressive temperature gradient at mid-levels sets up with 700hPa temperatures at or above 0°C on the warm side and -10°C just to its north. Cross sections also hint on a strong incline of this NW-SE orientated baroclininc zone, which only complicates the forecast more. Right now, the highlighted area will see very weak lapse rates between 2km and 4km approaching zero during the evening hours and resulting in a stout cap over the whole area. At the same time, active cold front creeps in this area from the NW, resulting in a rapid cool down below approximately 2.5 to 3 km. This cold front will have the best chance for a strongly forced line of low-topped convection. Outstanding 45m/s streak at 700hPa places the sub-3km column under the favorable left exit region. Both, dynamics and the front itself should assure adequate forcing for a strongly forced line of storms.
100-200J/kg SBCAPE at lowest 3km were persistently shown in the past few GFS runs which is enough for convection. Shear is impressive with 0-1km helicity values above 200 J/kg, winds at 850hPa at 35m/s increasing to 45m/s at 700hPa and low LCLs. Current thinking is that tail end storms or more discrete storms will pose a distinct tornado threat. Dependant on how robust convective activity will be along the cold front, widespread severe to damaging wind gusts look likely with a progessive squalline event. However we decided not to issue a level-2 as degree of instability is still uncertain, especially well inland over central UK.
Activity will rapidly shift towards the SE during the night hours.
No thunderstorm area was issued as degree of electrified storms is quite uncertain.

We went with a small general thunderstorm area over Scotland, but coverage should be more isolated.

... Belgium, the Netherlands and west-central Germany....

Overall we still deal with the baroclinic zone, which moved southeastwards, reaching Belgium and the Netherlands after 00Z. 700hPa temperatures will cool down a little bit between 00Z and 06Z which helps to weaken / lift mid-level cap somewhat. Nevertheless, capping will be too strong for deep convection and again low-topped convection along the SE-ward racing cold front will be the primary convective modus. 200-300 J/kg SBCAPE at lowest 3km are forecast and was shown persistently during the past few model runs. Speed max at 700hPa gets even stronger compared to the UK and reaches 50m/s after 00Z while attendant exit region overspreads the area of interest.
Forecast soundings show a favorable environment for tornadic thunderstorms as veering is strong, T-Td spread is small and convection should be surface based. 0-1km helicity above 150J/kg, 0-3km shear of 20-35m/s and winds at 850hPa above 30m/s point to a enhanced tornado and severe-damaging wind gust threat.
Again, dependant on the degree of convective activity along the cold front, a progressive-type LEWP squalline could evolve out of this environment with a tornado and severe wind gust risk, while racing southeastwards, reaching west-central Germany during the end of the forecast period.
Because of the persistent signals of nice shear / instability over this area a level-2 was issued.

... N-Germany...

More uncertainties exist over N-Germany as instability will be very limited and GFS only has traces along the eastward racing cold front. In contrast to the aforementioned areas we now expect deep convection as mid-level lapse rates steepen to at or above 6K/km. Potent mid- / upper-level jet is placed to the south and hence strong upper-level divergence values will be present over N-Germany. Again, the cold front, reaching NW Germany at about 00Z and eastern Germany only 6h later will be the main focus for convective activity. Despite impressive forcing, shear at all levels will be somewhat weaker than further towards the south and BL moisture somewhat worse. Current thinking is that also this part of the cold front gets convectively activated with an attendant severe-damaging wind gust / tornado risk.

Severe weather threat should continue in the postfrontal airmass especially if indeed such a well defined convergence zone can evolve like GFS wants to.
We issued a thunderstorm area as deep convection will be possible.


# # #

[Bunkertor]

Forecast Update
Valid: Fri 29 Feb 2008 06:00 to Sat 01 Mar 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 29 Feb 2008 13:38
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER/TUSCHY/DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Refer to the convective forecast.

DISCUSSION

British Isles, Benelux countries, Northern and centra Germany...

As mentioned in the original forecast, strong forcing for upward vertical motion is expected within the left exit region of an intense jet streak. The cold frontal zone of an intense surface low moving eastward over Scotland is the main feature of interest. It will likely develop a split-front structure as dry air overspreads the surface front. The surface front is expected along a line Edinburgh-Shannon at 18:00 UTC, Groningen-Southampton at 00:00 UTC, Szezczin - Frankfurt- Luxembourg at 06:00 UTC. It appears likely that the juxtaposition of moist low-level air, with dew points in the 8-10 C range, and strong forcing, will suffice for the development of a convective line. The structure of such a line will likely develop better as it moves southeastward across the British Isles, the North Sea and into the continent. Hence the risk of convective severe weather will probably increase as the frontal system translates southeastward.

Current thinking is that gusts exceeding the severe limit of 25 m/s will be relatively widespread, given that 850 hPa winds of 35 m/s are forecast near the line. Locally they may even exceed 32 m/s. The forecast storm-relative helicity of 300-400 m2/s2 ahead of the line suggests that some risk of rotating updrafts will exist near irregularities in the line, or with isolated convective cells ahead of the line. These will have an attendant threat of tornadoes likely of F1 or F2 intensity.

Aforementioned threats, of which the straight-line wind is the greatest, have prompted the issuance of a level 2. In contrast to original positive forecast it is more focused now on the area that will experience the strongest forcing.

[Bunkertor]

Source: http://www.unwetterzentrale.de

violet: Wind peaks over 130 km/h in the lowlands, in this case coastal areas and north german lowlands affected

red: 100 - 130 km/h in the lowlands, alps up to 150

[Crostorm]

For next days the storm is going south,that will be very interesting to watch

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 01 Mar 2008 06:00 to Sun 02 Mar 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 29 Feb 2008 18:58
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Vigorous upper westerly flow has established over the Atlantic and Europe ... with an imbedded wave rapidly digging from central Germany towards Turkey/the Black Sea region by Sunday 06Z. Extensive and quite intense SFC cyclone centered over SW Norway is simulated to develop a new centroid over the Baltic Sea region during the day. Associetd cold front, which will be attached to the digging upper trough will quickly surge from central Germany across the Balkans into the central Black Sea.

DISCUSSION

... S Germany ... Austria ... Balkan States ...

Convective scenario remains somewhat challenging ... with the potential severe wind/tornado threat depending on whether or not convection develops along the cold front. As global model, GFS naturally has difficulties in capturing the detailed structure of the cold front and the evolution of instability/convection along it. Based on the magnitude of upward forcing and the strong front-normal flow component, development of a split-frontal structure exists, and the development of a strongly forced slab-type convective line, several lines, or line segments, is anticipated. The main threat associated with these lines will be severe straight-line wind gusts, though large low-level hodographs suggest that any isolated updraft may attain appreciable rotation with an attendant tornado threat. Threat for convection appears to persist through the day as the cold front surges southeastwards, though wind fields seem to weaken over the Balkans and vigor of upward forcing and convection may thus also undergo some weakening.

... N Germany ... W Poland ...

Comparatively shallow moist convection, possibly organizing into small line segments, is anticipated in the wake of the cold front. This convection will develop amidst the strongest wind field this ETC has to offer, and thus augment the severe gradient background flow, and may in addition produce a short-lived tornado or two.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

Code: Select all

Spitzenböen [km/h]: 01.03.2008
Sortierung:  Nord - Süd  A - Z  Max - Min 
 


Wendelstein (1835 m) 223 km/h 

Zugspitze (2962 m) 187 km/h 

Feldberg/Schwarzwald (1493 m) 162 km/h 

Fichtelberg (1215 m) 155 km/h 

Großer Arber (1446 m) 155 km/h 

Chemnitz (420 m) 151 km/h 

Hohenpeissenberg (986 m) 148 km/h 

Brocken (1142 m) 148 km/h 

Mühldorf am Inn (410 m) 137 km/h 

Freudenstadt (801 m) 133 km/h 

Weinbiet/Pfalz (557 m) 133 km/h 

Kahler Asten (841 m) 130 km/h 

Geislingen/Stötten (737 m) 130 km/h 

Feuchtwangen - Heilbronn (475 m) 130 km/h 

Gera/Leumnitz (311 m) 122 km/h 

Wasserkuppe (925 m) 122 km/h 

Ansbach/Katterbach (467 m) 120 km/h 

Altenstadt (757 m) 120 km/h


[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

Windstorm kills at least nine in Europe

Published: March 1, 2008 at 9:07 PM
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VIENNA, March 1 (UPI) -- A winter storm with winds of more than 100 mph cut a swath of destruction across Europe from Britain to the Czech Republic, killing at least nine people.

Four people were killed in Austria, three in Germany and two in the Czech Republic, EuroNews reported. Most of the deaths were caused by falling trees or flying debris.

In Europe the storm was named Hurricane Emma.

In Britain, the West Coast rail line between Glasgow and London was closed after the wind blew containers off a freight train at the top of a long incline in Cumbria, the BBC said. High winds also damaged cranes in the port of Felixstowe on the east coast.

In the Netherlands, the storm delayed planes at Schiphol International Airport in Amsterdam. The dikes that keep the North Sea from flooding much of the country were being watched because of high water levels, Radio Netherlands reported.

In Central Europe, thousands of people were without electricity because of the storm. Rail service was also disrupted in Germany.

Two of the dead in Austria were German tourists, EuroNews said.
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Top_News/2 ... rope/3727/


other photos
http://news.monstersandcritics.com/euro ... ope?page=1

[Crostorm]

tornado

Walce 120km SE of Wroclaw, opolskie
Poland (50.3667 N, 18.0000 E)
01 03 2008 (Saturday) 10:00 UTC (+/- 1 hrs.)
based on: information from a report on a website, a television or radio broadcast, photograph(s) and/or video footage of the inflicted damage
land use: land
land use where event was first observed: land
F1 the intensity rating was based on photograph(s) and/or video footage of the inflicted damage, a written account of the damage (e.g. in a newspaper).
accompanying weather: heavy rain.
The funnel cloud was observed.
direction of movement: NW-SE
Source: http://www.nto.pl/apps/pbcs.dll/article ... /886377537 + FORUM POLSKICH LOWCÓW BURZ (discussion): http://www.lowcyburz.pl/forum/viewtopic ... 477&p=4863 p4863
This report has not been verified.

http://essl.org/ESWD/