![Image](http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/images/sh212008.gif)
WTXS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 16.2S 121.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 121.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.6S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.0S 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.5S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.0S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 121.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (OPHELIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
573 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM ALL AVAILABLE AGENCIES
SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF AN ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENER-
ALLY WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DUE TO
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
IMPROVING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WAR-
NINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.
//
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