NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
Still mentions sever weather threat for Tuesday...
000
FLUS42 KJAX 012305 AAC
HWOJAX
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
605 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2008
FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-021100-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
605 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2008
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY MAY CREATE AN ABOVE
NORMAL FIRE DANGER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 20 MPH. TUESDAY WIND GUSTS MAY NEAR 30 TO 35 MPH.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
TRAILING A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY MIDDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
LINE AS IT MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SOME STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS....LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME BUT
MAY BE REQUESTED ON TUESDAY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.
$$
ABE/SEC
2008 Severe Weather Thread
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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jaxfladude
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brunota2003
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Re: 2008 SVR WX Thread: SVR PSBL Sun/Mon/Tue
MHX discussion for this morning (since I didnt post it):
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
S/SE FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATE. SPRINGLIKE CONDITIONS ON MON AS TEMPS WILL CLIMB
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 60S
BEACHES AND OUTER BANKS. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY TEMPS MON
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.
STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA TUE/TUE EVENING AS CLOSED NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW LIFTS NE ACROSS THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
SLIGHT FASTER MOVING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. IT APPEARS
BEST POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS. VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA MON/MON EVENING WITH LIMITING FACTOR FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE BEING WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT ALONG WITH A TORNADO POTENTIAL IF INSTABILITY WERE TO BE
HIGHER THAN CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST.
PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST TUE NIGHT AS SFC COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WED AND THU WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPS WED THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON THU AHEAD OF NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHING. RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY WITH NEXT
SYSTEM.
MHX Evening discussion:
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING SUN AS MID AND UPPER
RIDGING MOVES TOWARDS THE ERN US. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DRY DAY
WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TOMORROW...BUT TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY GIVEN NE FLOW/LOWER LOW LVL THICKNESSES.
GENERALLY EXPCT U50S-L60S EXCEPT QUITE A BIT COOLER ALONG THE NRN
OUTER BANKS (WHICH MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE U40S) WITH THE N/NE FLOW
OFF SSTS IN THE M40S. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS GUSTY TOMORROW WITH
THE HIGH BUILDING OVERHEAD. SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE SUN
NIGHT THROUGH TUE ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO SET UP. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT BUT ABOVE CLIMO READINGS ANTICIPATED MON
THRU TUE WITH WAA PATTERN GETTING WELL ESTABLISHED. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH MON NIGHT BUT SOME SCU COULD BEGIN DEVELOPING
LATE MON WITH SLY FLOW INCREASING LOW LVL MSTR. ALSO SHOWED MIN
TEMPS AROUND MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT THEN STEADY TO SLIGHT WARMING
THROUGH TUE MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
MID AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST DURING
TUESDAY AS CUT OFF LOW PUSHES NE FROM MID-SOUTH TOWARDS GREAT LAKES
REGION. ASSOCIATED TROUGHING WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
MOVES INTO THE SE STATES TUE EVENING. ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW WILL ALSO
MOVE NE FROM TENNESSEE TUE MORNING TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER
VLY...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING. THIS PATTERN STILL LOOKS POISED TO
BRING ERN NC SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY LATE TUE AFTN AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WHEN BEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE OVER THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS
WITH HIGH SHEAR/MARGINAL INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD SVR WORDING AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...IT IS NOTABLE
THAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A BIT HIGHER CAPES AND DEWPOINTS THAN
THE TSTM EVENT EARLIER THIS WEEK (TUE 2/26). GIVEN
THIS...SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL JETTING...AND NEGATIVELY TILTED M-U
TROF AND STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA...TUE AFTN/EVENING
COULD BE FAIRLY ACTIVE. KEPT LIKELY POPS WITH ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS...BUT
PUSHED BACK TIMING A BIT BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
S/SE FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATE. SPRINGLIKE CONDITIONS ON MON AS TEMPS WILL CLIMB
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 60S
BEACHES AND OUTER BANKS. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY TEMPS MON
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.
STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA TUE/TUE EVENING AS CLOSED NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW LIFTS NE ACROSS THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
SLIGHT FASTER MOVING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. IT APPEARS
BEST POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS. VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA MON/MON EVENING WITH LIMITING FACTOR FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE BEING WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT ALONG WITH A TORNADO POTENTIAL IF INSTABILITY WERE TO BE
HIGHER THAN CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST.
PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST TUE NIGHT AS SFC COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WED AND THU WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPS WED THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON THU AHEAD OF NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHING. RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY WITH NEXT
SYSTEM.
MHX Evening discussion:
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING SUN AS MID AND UPPER
RIDGING MOVES TOWARDS THE ERN US. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DRY DAY
WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TOMORROW...BUT TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY GIVEN NE FLOW/LOWER LOW LVL THICKNESSES.
GENERALLY EXPCT U50S-L60S EXCEPT QUITE A BIT COOLER ALONG THE NRN
OUTER BANKS (WHICH MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE U40S) WITH THE N/NE FLOW
OFF SSTS IN THE M40S. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS GUSTY TOMORROW WITH
THE HIGH BUILDING OVERHEAD. SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE SUN
NIGHT THROUGH TUE ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO SET UP. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT BUT ABOVE CLIMO READINGS ANTICIPATED MON
THRU TUE WITH WAA PATTERN GETTING WELL ESTABLISHED. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH MON NIGHT BUT SOME SCU COULD BEGIN DEVELOPING
LATE MON WITH SLY FLOW INCREASING LOW LVL MSTR. ALSO SHOWED MIN
TEMPS AROUND MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT THEN STEADY TO SLIGHT WARMING
THROUGH TUE MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
MID AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST DURING
TUESDAY AS CUT OFF LOW PUSHES NE FROM MID-SOUTH TOWARDS GREAT LAKES
REGION. ASSOCIATED TROUGHING WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
MOVES INTO THE SE STATES TUE EVENING. ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW WILL ALSO
MOVE NE FROM TENNESSEE TUE MORNING TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER
VLY...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING. THIS PATTERN STILL LOOKS POISED TO
BRING ERN NC SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY LATE TUE AFTN AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WHEN BEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE OVER THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS
WITH HIGH SHEAR/MARGINAL INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD SVR WORDING AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...IT IS NOTABLE
THAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A BIT HIGHER CAPES AND DEWPOINTS THAN
THE TSTM EVENT EARLIER THIS WEEK (TUE 2/26). GIVEN
THIS...SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL JETTING...AND NEGATIVELY TILTED M-U
TROF AND STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA...TUE AFTN/EVENING
COULD BE FAIRLY ACTIVE. KEPT LIKELY POPS WITH ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS...BUT
PUSHED BACK TIMING A BIT BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re:
RL3AO wrote:Should an individual thread be made for this possible outbreak?
I'd wait a bit - if a Moderate Risk is issued tomorrow (for either tomorrow or day 2) then yes. I think separate threads should be for days of at least a Moderate Risk, or with significant severe activity already developed (although February 17th was not broken off, it could have been).
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MGC
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5899
- Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
- Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.
Re: 2008 SVR WX Thread: SVR PSBL Sun/Mon/Tue
This looks to have the potential to be another outbeak. There will be quite warm temperatures ahead of the front. Classic spring weather in the deep south. Almost all the forecast offices are singing that tune: severe weather. It was the nicest day of the year here along the MGC. Saw lots of people on the beach working on their tans. They will be back to coats come Tuesday......MGC
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jaxfladude
- Category 5
- Posts: 1249
- Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:36 pm
- Location: Jacksonville, Fla
Re: 2008 SVR WX Thread: SVR PSBL Sun/Mon/Tue
http://www.firstcoastnews.com/weather/5dayforecast.aspx
Read the text below the 5 day forecast graphic.
Read the text below the 5 day forecast graphic.
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jaxfladude
- Category 5
- Posts: 1249
- Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:36 pm
- Location: Jacksonville, Fla
Re: 2008 SVR WX Thread: SVR PSBL Sun/Mon/Tue
jaxfladude wrote:
What day(s) are those for?
Today (Sunday)
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brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
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- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
Re: SVR WX: SLGT Day 1 So. Plains, MDT Day 2 45%H LA, MS, SW AR
Moderate Day 2 (Monday)
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CST SUN MAR 02 2008
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN AR AND MUCH OF LA AND
MS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX/FAR ERN OK EWD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY...WITH A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND STRONG
TORNADOES.
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO
LIFT ENEWD INTO SRN MO BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO A
100 KT MID LEVEL JET LIFTING FROM SWRN TX NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY. A
COLD FRONT FROM MO INTO CENTRAL TX MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ACCELERATE
EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...AS A SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL TX
SHIFTS EWD AND DEEPENS ACROSS AR AND INTO TN DURING THE PERIOD.
...ERN TX/FAR ERN OK EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...
A BROAD BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...LIKELY WILL BE ONGOING
AT 12Z MONDAY FROM NWRN AR SWWD INTO CNTRL TX...ALONG AND AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE DAY
AND INTENSIFY...AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION...INCLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A 50-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE STRONGER SLY FLOW WILL AID IN
ADVECTING LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE
DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD YIELD MLCAPES RANGING
FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS SRN LA/MS TO AROUND 250 J/KG ACROSS NRN
AR/WRN TN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS WILL
RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 50 TO 60 KT...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR BOTH LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES.
THE STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS AR/LA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND ACROSS MS/TN/AL MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
WSWLY FROM SERN TX EWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF LA/MS. WITH SSELY LOW
LEVEL WINDS...THE STRONGER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION
SHOULD SUPPORT MORE CELLULAR STORMS/SUPERCELLS. ALONG WITH DIURNAL
HEATING/MODERATE INSTABILITY...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY
STRONG AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS /1KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT/ WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...SOME STRONG.
ACROSS AR DURING THE MORNING...AND THEN EWD ACROSS TN/NRN MS AND AL
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THE UPPER WINDS SHOULD BE SLY... RESULTING
IN DEEPER UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. THIS SHOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A
SQUALL LINE. THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT AND THE UPPER LOW
BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED BY MONDAY EVENING...SHOULD
AID IN THE SQUALL LINE /WITH EMBEDDED BOWS/TO MOVE RAPIDLY EWD WITH
THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF A REAR INFLOW JET. WIND DAMAGE...POSSIBLY
WIDESPREAD...IS MOST LIKELY TO ORGANIZE IN AR DURING THE DAY...AND
THEN SHIFT EWD INTO NRN MS/TN BY EVENING ...AND THEN INTO MIDDLE
TN/AL OVERNIGHT.
..IMY.. 03/02/2008
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CST SUN MAR 02 2008
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN AR AND MUCH OF LA AND
MS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX/FAR ERN OK EWD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY...WITH A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND STRONG
TORNADOES.
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO
LIFT ENEWD INTO SRN MO BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO A
100 KT MID LEVEL JET LIFTING FROM SWRN TX NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY. A
COLD FRONT FROM MO INTO CENTRAL TX MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ACCELERATE
EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...AS A SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL TX
SHIFTS EWD AND DEEPENS ACROSS AR AND INTO TN DURING THE PERIOD.
...ERN TX/FAR ERN OK EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...
A BROAD BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...LIKELY WILL BE ONGOING
AT 12Z MONDAY FROM NWRN AR SWWD INTO CNTRL TX...ALONG AND AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE DAY
AND INTENSIFY...AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION...INCLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A 50-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE STRONGER SLY FLOW WILL AID IN
ADVECTING LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE
DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD YIELD MLCAPES RANGING
FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS SRN LA/MS TO AROUND 250 J/KG ACROSS NRN
AR/WRN TN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS WILL
RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 50 TO 60 KT...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR BOTH LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES.
THE STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS AR/LA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND ACROSS MS/TN/AL MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
WSWLY FROM SERN TX EWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF LA/MS. WITH SSELY LOW
LEVEL WINDS...THE STRONGER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION
SHOULD SUPPORT MORE CELLULAR STORMS/SUPERCELLS. ALONG WITH DIURNAL
HEATING/MODERATE INSTABILITY...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY
STRONG AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS /1KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT/ WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...SOME STRONG.
ACROSS AR DURING THE MORNING...AND THEN EWD ACROSS TN/NRN MS AND AL
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THE UPPER WINDS SHOULD BE SLY... RESULTING
IN DEEPER UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. THIS SHOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A
SQUALL LINE. THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT AND THE UPPER LOW
BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED BY MONDAY EVENING...SHOULD
AID IN THE SQUALL LINE /WITH EMBEDDED BOWS/TO MOVE RAPIDLY EWD WITH
THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF A REAR INFLOW JET. WIND DAMAGE...POSSIBLY
WIDESPREAD...IS MOST LIKELY TO ORGANIZE IN AR DURING THE DAY...AND
THEN SHIFT EWD INTO NRN MS/TN BY EVENING ...AND THEN INTO MIDDLE
TN/AL OVERNIGHT.
..IMY.. 03/02/2008
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HarlequinBoy
- Category 5
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- Location: Memphis
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Weatherfreak14
- Category 5
- Posts: 1383
- Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
- Location: Beaufort, SC
- Contact:
Re: SVR WX: SLGT Day 1 So. Plains, MDT Day 2 45%H LA, MS, SW AR
Moderate Risk Possible for CHS area possible Tueday Eve.!!!!!
000
FXUS62 KCHS 021137
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
637 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...AND WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IMPACT THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN
NEAR TERM CONCERN FOR TODAY REVOLVES AROUND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE AREAS WEATHER
RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS
VALUES SUGGEST HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. WITH THE EXTREMELY
DRY AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION...WILL ADJUST THESE VALUES
UPWARD SLIGHTLY AND FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S...AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF COURSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...ALLOWING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST. THE NAM SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS MAY ROLE
IN OFF THE ATLANTIC AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY.
WOULD EXPECT THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
THE GULF STREAM AND WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS...RATHER THEN TRYING TO
PUSH THROUGH THE MUCH COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE
ALONG WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD MORNING...SO WILL
INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR FORECAST AREA ON MON WILL RESIDE BETWEEN A BROAD MID LEVEL
RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM CUTTING OFF
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A SOLID SUBSIDENCE CAP BUT
ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS LESS FOCUSED AND EXPECT THE UPSLOPE FLOW TO
KEEP THE CLOUDIEST CONDITIONS INLAND FROM OUR AREA. THUS A NICE DAY
ON TAP WITH MILD LOWER TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND A BIT BREEZY AT
TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. MON NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT TOWARD SRN MISSOURI BY SUNRISE TUE WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE RAINS
BUILDING AS FAR E AS W GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK. FOR OUR AREA...A MILD
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING INTO THE 60S LATE. WE TRIMMED
BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHC LATE WELL INLAND...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS
IN WAA REGIME WITH BE FAIRLY ISOLATED.
ON TUE...ALL EYES REMAINED FOCUSED ON TIMING AND THE POTENTIAL
OVERALL INSTABILITY REGIME AHEAD OF THE STRONG FIELD OF MASS
CONVERGENCE AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SYSTEM AS IT NEGATIVELY TILTS THROUGH THE SRN OHIO VALLEY
AND WRN MID ATLC REGION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SLOWED
CONSIDERABLY FROM WHAT MODELS INDICATED DURING THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THIS COULD GIVE OUR ENTIRE AREA AMPLE TIME TO BREAK OUT INTO SOME
SUNSHINE AND THE AIR MASS APPEARS QUITE WARM WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS TO STREAM N ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. WE DID NOT BUY OFF ON THE GFS
LOWER 80S HIGHS...BUT DID RAISE HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
TO TREND.
THE LATEST THINKING SUGGESTS AN EVEN HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THAN WE WERE ANTICIPATING YESTERDAY. GFS 0-1KM HELICITY FIELDS
ACROSS THE AREA FORECAST SHOW 200-400 M2/S2 WITH -6.5 TO -7C MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 8500 FT WET BULBS TO TANDEM WITH IMPRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET AT 00Z WED. IF
THESE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE ANOTHER 24 HOURS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO
BE CONSIDERED FOR A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS ALONG WITH A
POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES.
WITH RUN TO RUN MODEL TRENDS GOING SLOWER...THE ONE FACTOR THAT MAY
SUPPRESS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
SLOWER WHICH WOULD BRING THE STRONGEST CONVECTION THROUGH AFTER PEAK
TIME OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. OBVIOUSLY WE ARE QUITE CONCERNED
ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF DANGEROUS WEATHER ON TUE...AND WE WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN OUR HWO PRODUCT AGAIN THIS MORNING.
THE SYSTEM WILL PASS LATER TUE NIGHT WITH ENSUING DOWNSLOPE AND
A CLEARING TREND BY DAWN WED. BOTH WED AND THU LOOK DRY WITH HIGHS
NOT FAR FROM 70.
LATE WEEK SYSTEM STILL HAS POOR MODEL AGREEMENT AND WE SLOWED POPS
DOWN A BIT BUT MADE FEW CHANGES OVERALL AT THIS POINT.[/code]
000
FXUS62 KCHS 021137
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
637 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...AND WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IMPACT THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN
NEAR TERM CONCERN FOR TODAY REVOLVES AROUND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE AREAS WEATHER
RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS
VALUES SUGGEST HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. WITH THE EXTREMELY
DRY AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION...WILL ADJUST THESE VALUES
UPWARD SLIGHTLY AND FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S...AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF COURSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...ALLOWING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST. THE NAM SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS MAY ROLE
IN OFF THE ATLANTIC AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY.
WOULD EXPECT THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
THE GULF STREAM AND WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS...RATHER THEN TRYING TO
PUSH THROUGH THE MUCH COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE
ALONG WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD MORNING...SO WILL
INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR FORECAST AREA ON MON WILL RESIDE BETWEEN A BROAD MID LEVEL
RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM CUTTING OFF
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A SOLID SUBSIDENCE CAP BUT
ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS LESS FOCUSED AND EXPECT THE UPSLOPE FLOW TO
KEEP THE CLOUDIEST CONDITIONS INLAND FROM OUR AREA. THUS A NICE DAY
ON TAP WITH MILD LOWER TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND A BIT BREEZY AT
TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. MON NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT TOWARD SRN MISSOURI BY SUNRISE TUE WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE RAINS
BUILDING AS FAR E AS W GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK. FOR OUR AREA...A MILD
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING INTO THE 60S LATE. WE TRIMMED
BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHC LATE WELL INLAND...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS
IN WAA REGIME WITH BE FAIRLY ISOLATED.
ON TUE...ALL EYES REMAINED FOCUSED ON TIMING AND THE POTENTIAL
OVERALL INSTABILITY REGIME AHEAD OF THE STRONG FIELD OF MASS
CONVERGENCE AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SYSTEM AS IT NEGATIVELY TILTS THROUGH THE SRN OHIO VALLEY
AND WRN MID ATLC REGION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SLOWED
CONSIDERABLY FROM WHAT MODELS INDICATED DURING THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THIS COULD GIVE OUR ENTIRE AREA AMPLE TIME TO BREAK OUT INTO SOME
SUNSHINE AND THE AIR MASS APPEARS QUITE WARM WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS TO STREAM N ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. WE DID NOT BUY OFF ON THE GFS
LOWER 80S HIGHS...BUT DID RAISE HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
TO TREND.
THE LATEST THINKING SUGGESTS AN EVEN HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THAN WE WERE ANTICIPATING YESTERDAY. GFS 0-1KM HELICITY FIELDS
ACROSS THE AREA FORECAST SHOW 200-400 M2/S2 WITH -6.5 TO -7C MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 8500 FT WET BULBS TO TANDEM WITH IMPRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET AT 00Z WED. IF
THESE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE ANOTHER 24 HOURS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO
BE CONSIDERED FOR A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS ALONG WITH A
POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES.
WITH RUN TO RUN MODEL TRENDS GOING SLOWER...THE ONE FACTOR THAT MAY
SUPPRESS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
SLOWER WHICH WOULD BRING THE STRONGEST CONVECTION THROUGH AFTER PEAK
TIME OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. OBVIOUSLY WE ARE QUITE CONCERNED
ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF DANGEROUS WEATHER ON TUE...AND WE WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN OUR HWO PRODUCT AGAIN THIS MORNING.
THE SYSTEM WILL PASS LATER TUE NIGHT WITH ENSUING DOWNSLOPE AND
A CLEARING TREND BY DAWN WED. BOTH WED AND THU LOOK DRY WITH HIGHS
NOT FAR FROM 70.
LATE WEEK SYSTEM STILL HAS POOR MODEL AGREEMENT AND WE SLOWED POPS
DOWN A BIT BUT MADE FEW CHANGES OVERALL AT THIS POINT.[/code]
0 likes
-
jaxfladude
- Category 5
- Posts: 1249
- Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:36 pm
- Location: Jacksonville, Fla
Re: 2008 Severe Weather thread
Lamb Followed By The Lion
http://www.firstcoastnews.com/news/local/news-article.aspx?storyid=103241
and also
000
FLUS42 KJAX 020917
HWOJAX
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
403 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2008
FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-031100-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
403 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2008
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
DRY WEATHER AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS
THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY...RESULTING IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 20 MPH. TUESDAY WIND GUSTS MAY NEAR 30 TO 35 MPH.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES TUESDAY TRAILING A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE THROUGH SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY MIDDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SOME STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS....LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME BUT
MAY BE REQUESTED ON TUESDAY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.
$$
ECZ
http://www.firstcoastnews.com/news/local/news-article.aspx?storyid=103241
and also
000
FLUS42 KJAX 020917
HWOJAX
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
403 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2008
FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-031100-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
403 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2008
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
DRY WEATHER AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS
THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY...RESULTING IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 20 MPH. TUESDAY WIND GUSTS MAY NEAR 30 TO 35 MPH.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES TUESDAY TRAILING A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE THROUGH SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY MIDDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SOME STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS....LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME BUT
MAY BE REQUESTED ON TUESDAY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.
$$
ECZ
0 likes
-
jaxfladude
- Category 5
- Posts: 1249
- Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:36 pm
- Location: Jacksonville, Fla
AS ADVERTISED...TUESDAY WILL BE AN INTERESTING WEATHER DAY WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA. LATEST
MODEL RUNS ARE TRACKING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH OF THE
AREA. NONETHELESS...STILL ANTICIPATE LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ISOLATED
CELLS PRECEDING MAIN LINE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLING
BEHIND THE FRONT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN AS WEAK
POST FRONTAL HIGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST COUPLED WITH MEAN
LAYER WEST FLOW (IN LIEU OF NORTHWEST FLOW).
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY REMAIN DRY AND STABLE WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AND LOWER 70S THURSDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WRT NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EVOLVING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DIVERGE
WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF FEATURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
FEATURE...HAVE ELECTED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER
AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA. LATEST
MODEL RUNS ARE TRACKING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH OF THE
AREA. NONETHELESS...STILL ANTICIPATE LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ISOLATED
CELLS PRECEDING MAIN LINE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLING
BEHIND THE FRONT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN AS WEAK
POST FRONTAL HIGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST COUPLED WITH MEAN
LAYER WEST FLOW (IN LIEU OF NORTHWEST FLOW).
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY REMAIN DRY AND STABLE WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AND LOWER 70S THURSDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WRT NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EVOLVING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DIVERGE
WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF FEATURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
FEATURE...HAVE ELECTED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER
AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
0 likes
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: 2008 Severe Weather thread
Now, hail isn't really winter weather, but it is frozen. I can't order up a skew-T for HOU from the NIU site, as they are only available in 6 hour increments, and only from the 0Z and 12Z runs.
But, checking the AccuWx PPV map, our total-totals in HOU between 50 and 55, our surface based CAPE is right about 500 J/Kg, and the most unstable CAPE (from Utah U met dept site) is between 750 and 1000 J/Kg, and deep layer shear is about 60 knots.
So, if enough hail were to accumulate tomorrow evening, I might count it as a moral victory, and act like it was sleet, once the danger of lightning passed. Run around, and make hail balls or something.
But, checking the AccuWx PPV map, our total-totals in HOU between 50 and 55, our surface based CAPE is right about 500 J/Kg, and the most unstable CAPE (from Utah U met dept site) is between 750 and 1000 J/Kg, and deep layer shear is about 60 knots.
So, if enough hail were to accumulate tomorrow evening, I might count it as a moral victory, and act like it was sleet, once the danger of lightning passed. Run around, and make hail balls or something.
0 likes
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: 2008 Severe Weather thread
Elevated cell behind the cold front, hence no tornado.
Closer to front
Rotation picking up just a tad, maybe, on Ft Bend cell as seen from Granger WSR-88D. At the distance between the radar and the cell, may be mid-level.
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